The staying feature of the day at Caulfield is the Herbert Power Stakes. A strong overseas influence is present with six of the eleven runners have commenced their careers on foreign shores. Two runners who fit this bill, Sea Moon and Kesampour are the early joint favourites at $3.75, just in advance of Irish galloper Simenon ($6.00), who’ll be making his Australian debut and improving mare Let’s Make A Deal ($7.00).
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Herbert Power Stakes Form Guide
1. SEA MOON – J Bowman (9)
He was well supported when making his Australian debut in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) three starts ago but, unfortunately for those who supported him, he buckled at the start and got too far back. He had excuses again at his next start, the G1 Underwood Stakes where, he got too far back in a slowly run race that dominated by those up on the speed. Last start, under 60kgs, he drop in grade and stepped in trip when competing in the Listed Bart Cummings (2500m). Under the big weight, the 6yo took forever to get to leading pair Araldo and Gotta Take Care and although first past the post – just, the race was later taken from him in the steward’s room.
2. SIMENON – K McEvoy (4)
This seven year old by Marju hasn’t raced for seven weeks however, his record shows that, this will be of little concern to him. He was off a six week break when second (beaten a neck) in the Ascot Gold Cup (4023m) and off a nine week break when again, second (beaten a head) in the G2 Lonsdale (3299m). Given that he hasn’t been over a distance this short in his last nineteen starts, if anything, he may find this too short!
3. TANBY – B Prebble (10)
A stable-mate to Sea Moon he, as the stable often does with their runners, only had a short autumn campaign before a spell of twenty-five weeks and returning in late August. He’s had three runs in thus far, with the latest being last week’s Listed Bart Cummings (2500m) where he weakened late after camping on the pace to run ninth of thirteen (beaten 8.8 lengths). That effort, coupled with two average performances prior, makes it hard to see him winning here.
4. KESAMPOUR – L Nolen (2)
He boasted four wins from his first seven starts in France, including a Group 2 race, before coming to Australia and to the care of leading Victorian trainer, Peter Moody. After eleven months away from the racetrack, the son of King’s Best made his Australian debut in the Listed Slickpix Stakes (1700m) at Caulfield. It was a solid effort and one that was all connections would have hoped for when finishing seventh of sixteen, five lengths from winner Ibicenco. He took obvious benefit from that hit-out and stepped up to 2000m when he stuck on well behind Mr. O’Ceirin for second in the G3 Naturalism Stakes. Fitter again and will get every chance from his inside draw.
5. MOUDRE – J McDonald (1)
As he did when resuming in the same race last year, the now 8yo flashed home at big odds (100/1) in the Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) three starts back. Unfortunately though, as he also did after last year’s Makybe Diva Stakes, he’s struggled in two subsequent runs. He was rated a solid 4/1 chance in last week’s Listed Bart Cummings but failed to make an impression from the back of the field in the run home. His last win came almost three years ago now and it would be a brave move to suggest he can break the drought here off the back of his recent efforts.
6. OASIS BLOOM – D Lane (5)
Lightly raced mare who was in some very sharp form this time last year, winning the G2 Stocks Stakes (1600m) and running fourth, beaten less than a length, in the Group 1 Myer Classic (1600m) behind Appearance. She had a lengthy spell of nine months after the Myer and since returning from her break in August, hasn’t quite been able to re-capture the form shown last spring. In a small field, she ran second to Atlantic Jewel in the Top Cut Stakes (1600m) before stepping up in distance and finishing fifth (beaten 5 lengths) behind Mourinho in the JRA Cup (2040m). Steps up again in both distance and class and should be well accounted for by some seasoned stayers here.
7. MOTIVADO – S Baster (7)
Another who commenced his career in Europe this 6yo from the David Hayes stables has had five runs since coming to Australia at the start of the year, with the pick of those efforts being his win in the G3 Queen’s Cup (2500m) at Morphettville. He’s had two runs back from a spell with the latest being a second to last (beaten 4.8 lengths) behind Gotta Take Care in an Open Handicap over 2500m at Moonee Valley, carrying 60kgs. Gotta Take Care was subsequently involved in a three way go across the line last week with Sea Moon and Araldo in the Listed Bart Cummings. Given that form reference, the fact that Motivado drops to 53kgs and is now third up and fitter, thought his chances would be better than the current quote of $17.00 suggests.
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8. LET’S MAKE A DEAL – M Walker (6)
Improving staying mare from Nigel Blackiston’s Flemington stables, she closed steadily last start, her third run back from a spell, to finish second (beaten 2 lengths) behind Star Rolling in the Listed Penang Trophy (1800m) at Morphettville. Third in that race was Araldo who, be it on protest, claimed the Listed Bart Cummings Stakes (2500m) last week over Sea Moon. That’s a positive form-line to follow and she’s a progressive mare.
9. VERDANT – D Dunn (11)
Showed some staying promise last spring, winning the 2800m race in good style on Cup Day and off that effort, started 2/1 favourite in the Sandown Cup (3200m) a fortnight later. Unfortunately he was injured in that race and spelled. He returned to racing in four month late in April of this year and whilst he hasn’t claimed another win since in ten starts, his last two efforts indicate he may be getting back somewhere near his best. He was strong late in Open Company at Moonee Valley over 1600m and last start, after having no luck at a crucial point in the race, closed well to run fourth in a BM 90 race over 2000m. Definitely heading in the right direction but this is a significant step up in grade on his last start. Place chance best.
10. GOLDINI – C Schofield (8)
Stable-mate to Motivado who has won three of his nineteen starts to date. Unfortunately for connections however, those three victories came early in his career when racing in Europe. After a fair effort on resumption from a spell in a quality handicap over an unsuitable distance of 1400m, he did well to finish within five lengths of winner Lidari – who was good again thereafter in Group 2 company. He then stepped out a month later, at his most recent start a fortnight ago, and batted away from midfield in a BM 90 (2000m) to finish eighth (beaten 4.6 lengths) behind Phantom Brew with Verdant fourth. He needs to make up several lengths to better those two horses here and more lengths again to be winning.
11. PHANTOM BREW – (3)
Steadily improving stayer from the local stables of Colin Little, the 6yo by Elusive City has won two of his six starts this prep including his most recent effort in a BM 90 race over 2000m. He made his move heading into the home straight and dug deep to record a nose win over Mintaro (Verdant fourth). He’s going well, but not well enough to defeat opponents at this level.
RACE OVERVIEW
Would expect Oasis Bloom and Kesampour likely to go forward here and set the pace. Kesampour’s second last start in the Naturalism Stakes (2000m) reads well but it was a slowly run race and he had every chance trailing the leader and eventual winner, throughout in the run. It was also run on a slow track, the condition on which he has recorded three of his four wins on. Third up, he’ll be open for further improvement but he’s up against some tough staying types here and on a firmer track, the $3.75 might be a bit skinny. Would much prefer to give Sea Moon another go at the same price, especially with Bowman in the saddle who has a good record – including the G1 Metropolitan last week on Seville – when riding for this stable. In a race where it’s hard to find one with confidence, Motivado is worth something each-way at his price of $17.00 for mine. Simenon has the record in Europe to suggest he’ll go very well here. That form doesn’t always guarantee results however but, at a quote of $6.00 would be prepared to find. Verdant and Let’s Make A Deal would battle out the last spot for selections.
- SEA MOON
- MOTIVADO
- SIMENON
- LET’S MAKE A DEAL
