Hawkesbury racecourse will host a stand alone meeting on Saturday on Hawkesbury Guineas day which features three Listed races including the Hawkesbury Guineas itself the Darley Crown and the Rowley Mile.
Weather in Sydney has been fantastic this week and it’s likely we will see a Good 3 or a Dead 4 track with the rail in the true position giving every horse a fair chance on what looks to be a great betting day.
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Race One: Tab Number 1 Club Hcp 1300m Form Guide
Back Me:Gold Bender gets into the race with absolutely no weight on her back with the claim by Rachael Murray. She will go to the front and with 50kg give a big kick in the straight, it will be very hard to run her down.
Don’t Back Me: Chiaroscuro wasn’t bad last start but drops back from 1400m to 1300m here which is a big concern for me and im happy to take on the favourite in the first.
Big Danger: Prince Of Sofia will be having her first run in Australia and with most of these european imports are always very talented. Has a good strike rate and looks one to watch.
Roughie: Emperor Big Nose gets into the weights very well with the claim and at the current odds of $17 looks great value in what looks a competitive race.
$500 Gold Bender Free Bet
Race Two: Evergreen Turf Hcp 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: Paximadia sat second throughout last start at Warwick Farm and broke clear in the straight to win well. I dont think the 100m drop in distance will hurt him and he looks pretty smart.
Don’t Back Me: Zoustar did a lot wrong last start but was still too good. Cant afford to do that against this field so i think he is a risk at the odds.
Big Danger: Divine Calling drops in class here after running in the Kindergarten Stakes when finishing fourth. Has shown class and looks well suited in this field.
Roughie: Quelle Beaute ran fourth behind a quality field at her first start and will improve from that run and looks good value at double figure odds.
$500 Paximadia Free Bet
Race Three: Blake’s Marine (bm80) 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Dynamic Honour had no luck last start where in which he should have won. Drops weight here and looks very tough to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Saint La Bamba won last start but was a mid week race and had things to suit up front. Drawn wide here and against harder competition.
Big Danger: Westchester has won his last two and i think he can make it three in a row on Saturday where he gets in very well weighted, has drawn to have every chance and has been well backed.
Roughie: Honourable Aussie’s run last start can have a line through it. It was run on a heavy and he was first up, he will be much better on firmer ground and with a run under his belt. The $31 looks great value.
$500 Dynamic Honour Free Bet
Race Four: Richmond Club (bm80) 2100m Form Guide
Back Me: Tunes looks the one in a very tough race. Put a line through his last start on the heavy and his runs before that were very good. Has won over the distance and can be backed each way.
Don’t Back Me: Coup Acclaim failed miserably in the heavy with the big weight last start and drops in distance here i think both of those things are a worry and at the odds looks a big risk.
Big Danger: Above All comes out of similar form as my on top selection and i think they will fight it out again on Saturday.
Roughie: Lysistrata hit the line strongly last start to win in a slowly run race at Gosford. Likely to get back in the race and i think she can run on well at big odds.
$500 Tunes Free Bet
Race Five: The 2013 Darley Crown 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: Miss Stellabelle hasn’t won since September last year but this race looks suited to her and the last few runs have shown she is ready to win.
Don’t Back Me: Dystopia has a terrible third up record with just the one placing from five attempts. Looking at that im happy to risk her on Saturday at the odds.
Big Danger: Quidnunc races well fresh which she is on Saturday and likes the distance. Looks the biggest danger to the on top selection.
Roughie: Irish Dream had been racing in Group 1 company before failing in the heavy going last start. Back on firm going should improve and she has a decent record at the distance and is the best roughie in the race.
$500 Miss Stellabelle Free Bet
Race Six: Xxxx Gold H’bury Rowley Mile 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Speediness missed the jump last start but hit the line strongly to beat some good horses. Loves the distance and has placed at the track.
Don’t Back Me: Keith’s Legacy is a notable wet tracker which he wont get on Saturday and from barrier 11 and current odds of $3.20 looks a big lay.
Big Danger: Monton finds the easiest race this preparation and has a class advantage. The tough race in the Doncaster is a concern but if he is close to his best he will win.
Roughie: Merlin Mustang drops 4kg on last start and looks much better suited over the longer distance. With the light weight should show a lot at double figure odds.
$500 Speediness Free Bet
Race Seven: Workers Blacktown H’bury Gneas 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Brave Soul has been unlucky at her last two starts both of which she was held up. Will get a perfect run from barrier one and is she can get a bit of luck on Saturday should go very close at good odds.
Don’t Back Me: Boban won well last start but the form hasn’t held up with Fantastic Ballad running a pretty poor race at Wagga in much easier company on Friday.
Big Danger: Platinum Kingdom has won three from three over the distance including the South Pacific Classic last start. Looks one of the major players in the race and a win wouldn’t surprise.
Roughie: Meidung was disappointing last start but she has shown she is a very good horse on her day and looks a good each way bet in the race.
$500 Brave Soul Free Bet
Race Eight: A2b Mini Bus Services (bm85) 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: Australian Star didn’t have much luck last start so im happy to forgive that run and the start before that ran the very smart Senta de Noche to 1.3 Lengths.
Don’t Back Me: Deceiver was unlucky last start not to win but i think this is a much tougher field and at $5 i am happy to risk him in what is a quality BM85 field.
Big Danger: Oakfield Commands drops 4.5kg from his last run and steps up to a more favourable distance on Saturday in which he looks to be one of the major players in the race.
Roughie: Balavan will have to carry a big weight but looks excellent value at the odds and the claim will help. Has a great first up record and has won two from two over the distance.
$500 Australian Star Free Bet
Best Bet: Miss Stellabelle has her name all over the Darley Crown this year and should be able to break her drought on Saturday in a much easier field than what she has been contesting.
Next Best: Speediness was super impressive last start after jumping poorly. Returns to Sydney and looks a very good bet and can be backed each way in a competitive field.
Best Roughie: Australian Star looks the best value bet of the day and could be the horse you can get out on if you are down at the end of the day.
