Flemington horse racing tips – 21/12/2013

Flemington will host Melbourne racing this Saturday, the track favoured leaders last week, and with the rail out 12 metres, it’ll be interesting to see how it plays.

 

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Race One: Primacy Handicap (78) 1420m Form Guide

Back Me: The maiden win of Gracious Prospect two back at Geelong has really switched this horse on. He was gone for all money last start at Caulfield but somehow clawed his way back into the contest and only went down by a half head. Drops 1.5kg from that run and faces an easier field.
Big Danger: Star Beauty was a good debut winner at Mornington, then worked home well in a $100,000 race on Ballarat Cup Day, then again hit the line nicely at Caulfield when a close up fourth. She should get the gun run behind Gracious Prospect and only carries 51kg.
Roughie:Bobcat was well tried last time out at Geelong and toughed it out to win narrowly. Rises significantly in grade, but does map well and looks to have some upside.

$250 Gracious Prospect Free Bet

 

Race Two: Red Tempo Handicap 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: Really keen on Lady Of Harrods here. She hasn’t won since the Thousand Guineas Prelude of last year, but she has contested some really good races since and strikes the weakest field she has seen in a very long time. Worked sharply at Flemington during the week, indicating a win is near.
Big Danger: Flash Of Doubt bombed the start last time out at Caulfield yet made up a stack of ground late and was unlucky not to finish in the placings. Now generally, in these straight races, horses drawn the fence are disadvantaged, but given it’s a small field, Bossy should take care of that.
Roughie: I like the fact that Fab Fevola has been entered here. On pace runners, over the past couple of years, have had a distinct advantage down the straight course, so it’ll be interesting to see how this bloke goes. I give him a sneaky first four hope with the right run on the speed.

Gig winning the Fiesta Star Handicap at Flemington - photo by Race Horse Photos Australia (Sarah Ebbett)
Gig winning the Fiesta Star Handicap at Flemington – photo by Race Horse Photos Australia (Sarah Ebbett)

 

$250 Lady Of Harrods Free Bet

 

Race Three: Bitalli Handicap (84) 2540m Form Guide

Back Me: Good little staying race here. I think Mick Kent will win the race, just not sure which one…leaning towards He’snotthemessiah, simply because he has more natural ability and has some upside. He has been desperately unlucky at his past couple, and finally gets to a bigger track.
Big Danger: Instrumentalist has been sent down south by Chris Waller and it appears to be a smart move given he has struck a very thin staying race here. He is a proven weight carrier, Olly rides and he is a very tough customer who will a very strong 2540m.
Roughie: Suspended Gem was the unlucky runner in the Traralgon Cup. He just got too far back in the run and couldn’t get a drag into the race. Still managed to flash at them late and go down narrowly. He will love the rise to 2500m and getting to a more spacious circuit.

 

$250 He’snotthemessiah Free Bet

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Race Four: Fiesta Star Handicap (78) 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Great each-way bet here for me in Pillar Of Creation. Once upon a time, he was a milk drinker who didn’t know how to win a race, but he is now a genuine little galloper who tries his heart out each time. He was excellent first up at Caulfield behind the well performed Don’t Get Too Excited. Trained on the track, has raced well here in the past, and there is no rider in better form than Damian Lane.
Big Danger: Spending put together two good runs behind She Can Skate before running a dreadful race behind Hai Lil here over this track/distance. Resumes here, saves her best for this track, drawn the right part of the track…definite threat.
Roughie: Value runner here is About Square, who raced well during the Winter, winning over this track/distance before striking bother at his next couple and being tipped out. Races very well fresh, and with the right drag, he can sprint hard and beat these.

 

$250 Pillar Of Creation Free Bet

 

Race Five: Skipton Handicap (84) 1630m Form Guide

Back Me: Really keen on the chances of Gig here. We have been on her back in the two runs she has had this time in, and has been far from disgraced. Worked home well when fifth at the Valley then really attacked the line over the 1400m at Caulfield. She gets to a track where she excels at, out to a trip she has placed, and is on the minimum weight. Can’t believe $7.50 is being offered.
Big Danger: Sistine Demon looks the logical threat given she was a most impressive all the way winner here last Saturday over the 1400m. Untried at this distance, but looks like she’ll get a comfortable lead, which will help the cause.
Roughie: Quick Snitzel was a real eye catcher first up at Caulfield behind Winta Chiller. She got hampered by the fallen runner on the turn and lost all momentum and her winning chances, but gee she really picked up late and hit the line better than anything. She is kept very safe in betting, and rightfully so.

 

$250 Gig Free Bet

 

Race Six: Chanteclair Handicap (90) 1420m Form Guide

Back Me: Anlon on top for us. He is a tricky horse to ride for hoops because he needs to be cuddled up for as long as possible and to be saved for the final 150m where he unleashes a powerful burst. Brad Rawiller attempted that last start at Caulfield, but due to circumstances, he was exposed 50-100m too early. He let down with that burst, but whacked away afterwards for third. He should get cuddled away from the barrier, and is a horse on the up, while a majority of these are on the decline.
Big Danger: Mister John was one of the better three year olds in Tassie last season, and after a couple of impressive efforts, he was sent to Melbourne for a couple of races and was very good, especially in his close up seventh in the Creswick Stakes. Resumed the other day at Hobart and was outstanding in winning, coming from well back and being forced very wide on the turn. Bossy has been booked, which is a very positive lead.
Roughie: Giving Felidea a sneaky chance. The last three runs he has had at Flemington he has raced alongside, or not far behind, the likes of Gail, That’s The One and Chile Express. That sort of form is good enough for this race, and he does draw wide, which helps him given he prefers to be outside horses.

 

$250 Anlon Free Bet

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Race Seven: Comic Court Handicap (90) 2000m Form Guide

Back Me: Looks a very thin race. Going for Angelology here, purely based on three reasons. One, he is only second up here and is unbeaten second up. Second, his first up run at Caulfield was outstanding for a stayer heading towards Tassie, and lastly, the price of $8 is great value.
Big Danger: The change of scenery and return to Victoria could get a win out of Index Linked. He has raced well at his past few outings, but hasn’t won. He won’t get a better chance to record another victory than here. Drawn to get a lovely run, Bossy on, 2000m…hard to beat.
Roughie: Prakticality was well backed last week at Kyneton, but didn’t seem to handle the tight track when a close up fourth to the local galloper Lionpower. This will be the first time he gets out to a decent trip on a spacious track for a very long time. A must for exotics.

 

$250 Angelology Free Bet

 

Race Eight: Beachside Handicap (70) 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: Perfect race for the Kavanagh runner Awasita, who has bolted in at her two runs this time in at Ballarat and Moonee Valley respectively. The only negative is that she has drawn gate one, but hopefully she can ping the lids and get over towards the better going. If that eventuates, she’ll beat these.
Big Danger: Royal Scandal trialled well at Tatura prior her slashing second under the Valley lights to Frankly Fast after settling near last in the run. She should get a lovely sit off the pace here, and with a clear run, she will be a tough nut to crack.
Roughie: Sweet Agi was scratched from the Valley last night in preference for this race. Won so impressively first up, then was probably just run off her legs in a heat of the 55 second challenge at the Valley. On her home track, back to 1000m, drawn well…hard to beat.

 

$250 Awasita Free Bet

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Best Bet: Awasita

Next Best: Gig
Best Roughie: Pillar Of Creation

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Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 5, 7, 9

Leg Two:
 4, 5, 9, 10

Leg Three: 
3, 5

Leg Four: 
2, 6, 7

$50 Investment= 52.08% of the dividend if successful.

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