HOW THE AFL CAME UP WITH ITS NEW SYSTEM:
* Mapped out data of players’ salaries over the past 14 seasons – there were some anomalies – picks No.6 have on average earned significantly less than No.12 selections – but a clear value curve was created
* An incentive was required to encourage clubs to invest in academies and potential father-son selections. The number was debated, but the league eventually settled on a 20 per cent discount
* A maximum discount of 20 per cent is applied in the first round, a fixed discount of 197 points then applies afterwards
WHY IT WORKS:
* Clubs should be more honest with their bids. There will be scant time for `bluff bids’ on draft night
* Clubs have been adopting different methods of valuing picks for some time, so the concept is not new
* Bidding occurs after trade period, so list managers will be better placed to make bolder bids
* Essentially it is another form of trading. Clubs are given a chance to sign the father-son/academy talent at a higher position in the draft, but must trade their way up
WHAT COULD GO WRONG:
* List managers mucking up the maths during trade period, or underestimating the interest in a potential draftee
* The risk of collusion remains. A club could agree to not bid on a player in exchange for inducements, such as a favourable trade
* Academies in NSW and Queensland will become a less attractive proposition and more players could be lost to the sport
* In the case of players like Heeney, rival clubs will know exactly how highly Sydney rate him and could take advantage of their need to trade for picks.
HOW LAST YEAR’S EXAMPLES WOULD HAVE PLAYED OUT UNDER THE NEW SYSTEM:
ACADEMY PRODUCT ISAAC HEENEY
What happened: Swans selected him with draft pick No.18, matching Melbourne’s bid of pick No.2
What would happen in 2015: The Swans hand over pick No.18 and the 37th and 38th selections. They’re still 80 points short of the 2013 required so their No.57 selection is dropped down to No.64
FATHER-SON SELECTION DARCY MOORE
What happened: Collingwood forced to use their first-round selection (No.6) following Western Bulldogs’ bid of No.5
What would happen in 2015: The Magpies must pay 1503 points, so give up pick six
FATHER-SON SELECTION BILLY STRETCH
What happened: Adelaide bid with No.30, Melbourne match it by using No.42
What would happen in 2015: Demons need to pay 432 points. Their next available pick is 38. That selection is shifted to pick No.71 and no more points are owed.
ACADEMY PRODUCT JACK HISCOX
What happened: Fremantle bid with No.33 and the Swans matched it, activating No.38
What would happen in 2015: The Swans cash in picks No.62 and No.69. They still owe 194 points and have no more picks of value, so start the next season with a debt.
FATHER-SON SELECTION ZAINE CORDY
What happened: Bulldogs use pick No.62, matching Fremantle’s bid of pick No.52
What would happen in 2015: The Bulldogs owe 49 points. Selection No.61 is worth 135 points, so instead of losing the pick it is downgraded to No.66
HOW FAMOUS EXAMPLES OF THE PAST MIGHT HAVE PLAYED OUT UNDER THE NEW SYSTEM:
FATHER-SON SELECTION JOBE WATSON (2002)
What happened: Essendon forced to use No.40 to draft Watson
If the new rules were in place: Brisbane might have bid for Watson with No.30, the pick they used to secure Daniel Merrett. The Bombers only need cash in pick No.40 to match the Lions.
FATHER-SON SELECTION TOM HAWKINS (2006)
What happened: Cats selected the power forward with selection No.41 in the last season before bidding was adopted
If the new rules were in place: Instead of selecting Bryce Gibbs, Carlton might have bid for Hawkins with the No.1 pick. The Cats have to pass on Hawkins or come up with 2400 points, the equivalent of cashing in picks No.7 and No.25 (which they used to select Joel Selwood and Nathan Djerrkura)
FATHER-SON SELECTION JOSH KENNEDY (2006)
What happened: The Hawks use their third-round selection (No.40) to select the club’s third-generation player
If the new rules were in place: Instead of selecting Paul Stewart with pick No.23, Port Adelaide bid for Kennedy. Needing to pay 618 points, the Hawks use picks No.40 and No.56.
