The Turnbull Stakes serves as a significant indicator for the spring campaign progression of several runners.

The challenge presented by the heavy track conditions at Flemington is a notable factor in this Group 1 2000m race, which features set weights and penalties.

By Friday morning, the Flemington track had been rated a Heavy 9, following 52mm of rain, with ongoing showers expected through Friday and into Saturday.

While this may impact some competitors, those at the forefront of betting, including Sir Delius and Aeliana, possess a proven ability to perform on rain-affected ground.

Sir Delius has a perfect record from two starts on heavy tracks, and Aeliana finished second to her former stablemate Via Sistina when resuming in the 2025 Winx Stakes, her only previous experience on a heavy track.

Aeliana does, however, boast an impressive record on soft tracks, with four wins from six starts and one second placing.

Her most recent victories on soft going were achieved in the Ranvet Stakes and Tancred Stakes at Rosehill earlier this year.

Trainer Chris Waller mentioned that after two starts this season, Aeliana was approaching her best, with further improvement anticipated before the Cox Plate (2000m) at Flemington on October 24.

He noted that Aeliana’s coat condition was finally showing signs of improvement.

“She was much better the other day,” Waller confirmed. “She looked like she is ready to peak and hold her form. “I’m keen to run her here despite it being a set weights and penalties race because she gets three weeks to get ready for the Cox Plate.”

Joining Aeliana in the field will be Caulfield Cup hopefuls Asterix and Ohope Wins, as well as Buckaroo, the runner-up in last year’s Cox Plate.

Soul Of Spain, another charge from the Waller stable, has been withdrawn and will instead compete in The Metropolitan (2400m) at Randwick.

“Asterix, he’s just going really well,” Waller said. “He can get to the Caulfield Cup through this race while Buckaroo gets in with 55 (kilos) which is a good weight.”

Waller is expecting a better performance from Ohope Wins as she steps up in distance, having contested the Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) on September 12 in her most recent outing.

“First-up it was a 1700-metre handicap and was too short,” Waller stated. “She’s never run over shorter than 2000 (metres) before, but she ran well the other day in the Makybe Diva.”

The Turnbull Stakes, with its challenging conditions, is set to be a captivating event, and betting sites are offering competitive odds.