Tuesday will see the running of the richest and most viewed race in Australia each year that being the Melbourne Cup worth over six million dollars and known for the race that stops a nation.
The day’s racing includes a ten race meeting in which the Melbourne Cup obviously headlines but there are also two other group races on the day which are the Lavazza Short Black and the 7News Stakes both at Group 3 level.
The sun in Melbourne continues to shine which will make for perfect conditions come Cup day where we should be racing on a good or dead track allowing all runners a fair chance.
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Race One: 7news Stakes 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Top Dolly has been well backed in the market in a race that has little to no exposed form around a lot of the runners. Top Dolly opened at $4.50 in betting and has been backed into her current quote of $3.20 which suggests the stable has a good opinion on this unraced and untrialed (publicly) daughter of Choisir.
Big Danger: Golconda was given a very easy trial where she got back and was never asked to do anything and went to the line hard help. She looked to show a lot of ability and Robbie Lang’s stable is flying at the moment and with Glen Boss not having a ride in the Melbourne Cup i think he will be looking to make amens in the support races.
Roughie:Singularity goes into the race with a run under her belt in which she got back in the field at Caulfield and was held up for a long way down the straight. She should have finished closer on that occasion and with the experience edge on a lot of these horses i think she has to be included at $15 in betting.
$650 Top Dolly Free Bet
Race Two: Tab Rewards Trophy 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Crimson Lady’s record at Flemington doesn’t look great on paper although in her three runs at the track she has had plenty of excuses so i wouldn’t take that into account on Tuesday. Both of her runs this preparation have been very good and her history suggests she runs best third up which she is here. She drew wide last start so she had to go back further than what she would have liked and she made good ground to the line over the mile. The step up in distance will suit her here and at $9 in betting she looks the horse to beat with this being a very winnable race for her.
Big Danger: Sweet Talkin Woman went back last start and sat three wide without cover in what was a slowly run race and she was still able to hit the line solidly making good ground late. She drops weight from that run and has drawn a much better barrier here so she wont be caught wide again. She has good second up form having won once and placed once from three tries and at $10 i think she is a big danger to my on top selection in the race.
Roughie: Minnie Downs has had two starts this preparation in which she was good in both. She has drawn quite wide (barrier 16) here so she will need some luck in the race but i think her two runs this preparation suggest she will be right in the finish at double figure odds.
$650 Crimson Lady Free Bet
Race Three: Carnival Hcp (96) 2800m Form Guide
Back Me: Caravan Rolls On will be making his Australian debut on Tuesday and looking at his overseas form he looks a very good chance in the race at $10. He has contested some decent quality races in England and the overseas stayers have continued to show their superiority this Spring so in a relatively weak race i am willing to back him here.
Big Danger: Opinion missed the jump badly last start at Moonee Valley and he did very well to finish where he did in the race only going down just over two lengths on the line. He will have to carry the top weight in the race although this is not a very strong field and the market suggested he has good ability after he was heavily supported at his Australian debut last start. He looks the main danger in the race in which he is the $4.20 favourite.
Roughie: Mujadale has drawn barrier 3 in the race which will allow him to get an easy run throughout the race. He drops weight from his previous two runs here which included a strong win two starts ago at Caulfield. He was a little disappointing last start but im happy to forgive him for that run and at $13 i think he will run a big race.
$650 Caravan Rolls On Free Bet
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Race Four: Lavazza Short Black 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: She’s Clean was super impressive first up this preparation where she went back in the Premiere Stakes and flew home to miss by half a length on the line. Last time out something was wrong where she was a long last after jumping as the short priced favourite. She has drawn wide here but her racing pattern will see her go back anyways and with the big field of runner im expecting there to be good speed in the race. She has a 2kg pull in the weights over Arinosa from there last encounter which i think will be the telling difference in the final stages of the race where she is an $8 chance in betting.
Big Danger: Arinosa won super impressively first up in Sydney before being thrown into a Group 1 at Moonee Valley last start which was probably a bit above her ability. She returns to a Group 3 mares race on Tuesday and she will be very hard to beat even with the top weight and barrier 10. She has eased slightly in the market out to $3.20 but i expect her to remain around that quote throughout betting.
Roughie: Miss Softhands didn’t handle the heavy going at Geelong last start so i am happy to put a line through that run. Before that she had some very good form around her two wins and when she placed two starts ago she pulled up lame which shows her ability. She gets into the race with 54kg here and she has the ability to go forward or back depending how the race goes early on which she will need jumping from barrier 13. She is a $26 chance in betting which i think is very good value.
$650 She’s Clean Free Bet
Race Five: Schweppes #flemingtonfling 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Anatina jumped poorly last start which cost her the race, if she can get out of the barriers properly on Tuesday she has showed enough ability to suggest she is the horse to beat in the race. She is lightly raced and has a very good record despite her barrier manners. She looks to be excellent value in betting at $13.
Big Danger: Iconic has been unlucky at her last two starts in which she should have finished closer in. She comes in around some very good form races and her record over the distance is very good having won twice and ran second from three starts. She is a $6 chance in betting and im guessing she will start shorter come race time.
Roughie: Bernabeu is a lightly raced galloper who really impressed me last time out winning in a quick time over the 1000m. He drops 2kg from that run and from the barrier he will be able to get a good run in the middle of the pack. Nash Rawiller is on board and at $15 i think he could be a very good up and coming sprinter.
$650 Anatina Free Bet
Race Six: Lexus Hybrid Plate 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Politeness will go into this race on Tuesday owing a few punters but i think against this field she looks very hard to beat. She drops weight from her last two runs against better company and she is drawn to get the run of the race. Happy to go with her one last time and i think those who backed her last two starts will get some of it back here where she is a $3.30 chance.
Big Danger: Moderate has had four career starts for three wins so her record is certainly very good. There is a small query whether she will run the trip as she failed over the 1350m distance before although on form you have to include her despite being at short odds of $2.20.
Roughie: Roop All has only had the two starts in which she has run second both times which included a good second at Caulfield last start. She should improve from those runs and at $10 she could be the horse to upset the two favourites.
$650 Politeness Free Bet
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Race Seven: Emirates Melbourne Cup 3200m Form Guide
Back Me: Hawkspur’s run in the Caulfield Cup i feel was a total forgive run. He got chopped out early in the race and was taken to back of the field on the fence. He never saw clear air throughout the run but he still attacked the line strongly having to switch courses throughout the straight. He has drawn wide which i think will actually be an advantage for him as he will be able to go back and site one off the fence and prevent having to get luck coming around the corner. He is untested at the distance but his recent runs stepping up through the distance suggest he will be suited by the 3200m and i think he will be the horse which will be able to use his turn of foot late in the two mile race. He is a $13 chance in betting at the moment but i think he will get out to better odds with punters looking to speck longer priced runners in the market.
Big Danger: Dandino i thought was very good in the Caulfield Cup when hitting the line really well late. That run suggested he is going into the Melbourne Cup with a very live chance in the race which is also based on the fact he drops 2kg from that run and that he has drawn barrier 4 which will give him a perfect run throughout the race. He will need a bit of luck coming around the turn but if Ryan Moore can get him out in time i think he will be hard to hold off at $12 in betting.
Roughie: Royal Empire i feel is perhaps the best chance of the horses we are yet to see in Australia. He is a lightly raced galloper who has a very good record having won five from thirteen with a further six placings to his name. He has drawn well in barrier 11 and he drops weight on what he is use to carrying in his races. He has been well supported in betting having been backed from $31 into $21 and at the odds he has to be included.
$650 Hawkspur Free Bet
Race Eight: Visit Victoria Plate 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: Rain Drum i thought was very good in the Crystal Mile last start in what is a very good form race. He steps up in distance here which i think he will handle and from barrier 1 he will be able to go forward and lead if the speed is slow or box seat behind the leaders if there is a bit of pace on giving him the run of the race. He looks very hard to beat in this race which is shown in his odds as he is a $3.30 chance.
Big Danger: Sheer Talent was disappointing last start but he did have a few excuses being posted three wide without cover with 57.5kg on his back. He drops in weight here and if he can get a bit of luck early in the race to find himself a good spot i think he will go very close at big odds of $19.
Roughie: Mull Of Killough had his first Australian start in the Cox Plate last week in which he wasn’t disgraced in what was a slowly run race eliminating those back in the field the opportunity. He drops back in class here and his record over the distance is very good having won twice from three tries. He has to carry the big weight but i think he could still be very hard to beat and must be included in your selections at $21.
$650 Rain Drum Free Bet
Race Nine: Mss Security Sprint 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Richie’s Vibe has been luckless at his past three runs and i think that will change on Tuesday where he has drawn to get a good run. He drops in weight in the race and his record at the distance at the distance when you take into account the times he should have finished much closer. There looks to be good speed in the race which will suit his running pattern of going back. He is at very good odds of $10 in betting and if things go his way he will be winning.
Big Danger: Mahisara will be first up on Tuesday and his form suggests he runs well doing so having won twice from five times first up. He loves Flemington and he has a very good record over the distance so i am expecting him to go very close at great odds of $10.
Roughie: Ready To Rip will have to carry the top weight in the race but he is such an honest galloper who is never far away from the winners. He has won five times over the distance and once over the course and distance. He has drawn midfield which will allow him to position wherever he likes and if the weight doesn’t take its toll late he will be hard to beat at double figure odds.
$650 Richie’s Vibe Free Bet
Race Ten: Emirates Airline Plate (90) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Henwood i think simply had a trial at Moonee Valley last start where he went back in the race and was never really asked to get going at any stage which is why he finished so far back. He has drawn wide here but his usual racing pattern is to go back which i think will be an advantage in this race as there looks to be good speed and by race ten i think you will probably wanting to come wide. He will have to carry the top weight but on class i think he will be winning this at very good odds of $7.50.
Big Danger: Such Hope has had three starts this preparation and they have all been good despite not getting a win in any of them. He went to the line untested last start after finding trouble and his run before that was very good only being narrowly beaten by Canali who has since come out and won again at Moonee Valley. He has drawn well and i think he will go close again at $11 in betting.
Roughie: Soros i think will jump way over the odds seeings this looks an easier race than that he has raced in recently. He hs drawn well in barrier three but is likely to get back in the run and with some luck i think he could blow out this field and massive odds of $26.
$650 Henwood Free Bet
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Best Bet: Henwood
Next Best: Rain Drum
Best Roughie: Anatina
