Justin Thomas was outstanding winning The Players at the last Florida event and he can win again as the Tour returns to The Sunshine State. Here are The Wolf’s selections for the Valspar Championship.
Valspar Golf Championship Best Bet
Justin Thomas, Outright Winner – $9.00
Justin Thomas makes his debut at Copperhead this week and there aren’t too many courses better suited to his game.
Designed by Larry Packard, the Copperhead Course is a tightly packed piece of land that rewards quality iron play more than anything else. There is no player more elite with his irons than Thomas, who ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach and 4th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green.
This is also a course where avoiding trouble and performing on the greens is key. Thomas ranks 2nd in Putting Average, 1st in Birdie or Better and 14th in Bogey Avoidance.
Despite a trying season, Thomas has five Top 8 finishes from 12 PGA Tour starts. He is a quality player who has got back to his best and should thrive on a course that suits him to a tee.
Valspar Golf Championship Next Best
Joaquin Niemann, Outright Winner – $31.00
Exciting young Chilean Joaquin Niemann is primed to win another PGA Tour event and looks well over the odds this week.
The most compelling case for Niemann this week is his form at the correlation courses. The two key tournament guides for this are the John Deere Classic and the Sony Open. Niemann has Top 25 finishes at the last two John Deeres while he finished runner-up at the Sony Open this year, an event he traded deep odds-on and should have won.
A very good iron player. Niemann ranks 8th on Tour in GIR and ranks Top 15 in Birdie or Better and Bogey Avoidance.
The Wolf has him priced as a $21 shot so big overs.
Valspar Golf Championship Value Bet
Charley Hoffman, Outright Winner – $51.00
Veteran Charley Hoffman is playing some very good golf and is a chance to contend this week.
In his last seven tournaments, Hoffman has three Top 10s and another two Top 20s.
Among that good run was a 15th at the Sony Open this year. He also has a very good record here with five Top 25s in his last 10 starts.
Hoffman ranks 15th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 8th in Par 3 Scoring, a very important guide here.
