Day two of the Grafton racing carnival takes place on Wednesday with the running of the $150,000 Listed Whk Ramornie Handicap (1200m). It promises to be one of the best runnings of this great race in a long time, with Magic Cassius, Howmuchdoyoulove and the old stager Youthful Jack doing battle.
The other feature race is the $50,000 Tursa Employment & Training Grafton Guineas (1600m). A cracking field has been put together, with the betting sure to be complexed given nearly every horse has a winning case. Kiwi visitor Dollario, the Chris Waller trained Disciple and the handy Lose It are some of the key contenders.
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Race One: Coca-Cola Amatil Maiden Plate 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Two horse race for me between Amphlett and In The Back Row, and I am leaning towards the latter given she trialled sensationally at Doomben last month. Sat outside the speed, took the lead at the top of the straight and went to the line under a hold yet won by nearly two lengths. Young Matheson is riding well, the filly should kick up and lead and prove hard to run down.
Don’t Back Me: With A Flurry has shown very good early pace in her career so far, but she hasn’t quite finished it off. 1200m is a big test for her.
Big Danger: Amphlett didn’t have much luck at Goulburn when sitting deep on the pace yet still fought on well for second. Meets a fairly weak field here and Tim Martin has placed her nicely.
Roughie: Rich Megarossa has done little in two runs this time in, but she also meets a weak field, has some pace and finally strikes a firm surface. Definite rough hope.
$250 Amphlett Free Bet
Race Two: Metro Hotels Maiden Plate 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Harlequin’s Gold…If he produces his 10 length trial win, then he’ll beat these. His three career starts have been fair, but his trial win at Doomben was excellent.
Don’t Back Me: Elkay Star led last start and fought on well at Taree when beaten narrowly. However, the form looks suspect as the horse that beat him was disappointing last weekend at Port Macquarie.
Big Danger: From The Valley is knocking on the door to win a race. Led throughout at Port Macquarie but was only caught in the final few strides. Gets back to a dry track here, perhaps can be ridden more cold from the wide barrier and if that does eventuate, he’ll be powering home at the end.
Roughie: Jade Mountain is first up here. 1200m first looks ideal as he is a get back/run on type and the pace should be on for him. Could surprise.
$250 Harlequin’s Gold Free Bet
Race Three: Yellow Tail Wines Handicap (Benchmark 70) 2100m Form Guide
Back Me: Looks to be a nice race for Brave Ali. Beautifully ridden to win at Gosford, but then it went all wrong at Wyong. He blew in the betting, missed the kick and showed no dash when beaten by Jack’s Song. He has performed well on firm ground in the past and he isn’t up against much here.
Don’t Back Me: Blissful Honour is racing well of late, but she cannot crack it for a win. She was disappointing last Thursday in the Cup prelude and I cannot see her improving well enough to win.
Big Danger: Former Victorian Buffett was well tried last start at the Gold Coast and did the job well enough to win. Stepping up in grade here but he appears to have some upside unlike some of his rivals.
Roughie: Coubertin has done nothing this time in, but don’t be surprised to see him run a cheeky race. He was terrible in the Cup prelude, but at his best, he’d trouble these.
$250 Brave Ali Free Bet
Race Four: Aristocrat Handicap (Benchmark 65) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Whitesails looks the good thing of the afternoon for me. Very impressive two back at Grafton over the mile before being outclassed at Warwick Farm behind Cannery Row. Back in grade here, drawn beautifully, weighted nicely and if he does hold his form, he’ll bea these.
Don’t Back Me: Xaarmelody produced an outstanding win last start on a bog track, carrying 64kg. He does drop in weight, but I don’t think he can do it again.
Big Danger: Transporter had some good form in Queensland before making his New South Wales debut at Randwick. He was terrible, but it’s fair to say he did not handle the bottomless surface. He gets a firmer track today, placed in his lone second up run and compared to what he has contested in the past, this field isn’t overly strong.
Roughie: All Again has contested some quality races in 2012. This is the easiest race he has contested for a while, drawn well and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a form reversal.
$250 Whitesails Free Bet
Race Five: Grafton Gas & Plumbing Handicap (Benchmark 65) 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: It’s not easy winning a maiden then going on to win a restricted race at your next start, but gee Posen looks so well placed to do that. Sat on the speed at the Sunshine Coast over 1600m and travelled beautifully in the run before bolting in by four lengths. Should get the perfect sit from barrier three and is the only horse in the race that has consistent form.
Don’t Back Me: Pesci led most of the way at Muswellbrook, for only to be gunned down late in the race. Class horse, but he has topweight and a wide barrier, so he’ll do a stack of work to lead.
Big Danger: The Middleweight was heavily supported at the Gold Coast and led all the way to break the hearts of the bookies. His best form is on wet ground but he is racing well enough to not ignore.
Roughie: Driving Reign should be just about ready to produce a solid run after two races back from a spell. He has the rails draw and should get the lovely sit off the pace.
$250 Posen Free Bet
Race Six: Whk Ramornie Handicap 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Cracking race. You can make a case for at least half a dozen runners but I’ve stuck with Magic Cassius. He just oozed class at Newcastle where he did plenty of work to find the lead yet ended up winning by nearly four lengths. Unbeaten on firm ground and although this is his toughest assignment to date, he will prove awfully hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Most of us thought Riva De Lago was back to his best after winning at Scone, but his two subsequent runs have been ordinary. Can’t have him here.
Big Danger: The stablemate of Riva De Lago, Howmuchdoyouloveme, is a high class galloper on the rise. Toyed with them first up at Doomben before being pressured in front at Eagle Farm, looking beat a few times up the straight yet still found the line to win. I would love to see him ridden off the pace because I think that’s where he is at his best eg his debut run.
Roughie: Many rough hopes. Youthful Jack is all class and has the runs on the board, Ollie Vollie had no luck in the John Carlton Cup, Prost should have won the Eye Liner, Martin Place was stiff at Rosehill and Persian Storm should get the run of the race.
$250 Magic Cassius Free Bet
Race Seven: Tursa Employment & Training Grafton Guineas 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Geez this is a hard race to sort out. I have been very impressed by Lose It this preparation. Caught the eye first up in a three-year-old handicap at Doomben. Dropped back to maiden grade and killed them before doing a repeat of that at the Gold Coast. Only concern is the fact he hasn’t performed on dry ground, but he did finish a close second in a trial on a good surface.
Don’t Back Me: Dollario ran a strong race in the Sunshine Coast Guineas when finishing fourth. Drops in class, but 59kg isn’t easy to carry and he is yet to win in Australia.
Big Danger: Art Thou Ready was ridden to perfection by Bowman at Newcastle. The way to ride him is off the pace and save him for the final 300m. Avdulla will be able to do that here from the ideal barrier and the stable is in good form at the moment.
Roughie: Rod’s Bid ran a superb fourth in the Inglis Guineas behind Pampelonne at Scone before he resumed from a let-up with an eye-catching fourth at Muswellbrook after missing the start and being held up on the fence. He can certainly win with luck.
$250 Lose Black Free Bet
Race Eight: Grafton Radio Taxis Handicap (C1) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Something wrong here if Aldini doesn’t win. Came within a half length of beating Howmuchdoyouloveme at Eagle Farm. He is one of the favourites for the Ramornie while this horse is conesting a class one. Please, back him, watch him win and get in the queue.
Don’t Back Me: If you back against Aldini, you’re a fool. He just wins here.
Big Danger: Burn So Bright did some work but kicked on strongly to break his maiden status at Ipswich. Has since trialled at Doomben and wasn’t asked to do a great deal. Fresh for this and trainer Liam Birchley has a wonderful record at this carnival.
Roughie: Remraam has been racing in ok fashion of late on wet tracks. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a dramatic form reversal back on top of the ground.
