Dustin Johnson defends just five months after winning the green jacket at Augusta but there will be plenty of contenders looking to take his crown. Here are The Wolf’s tips for The Masters.
BEST BET
Collin Morikawa, US Masters Outright Winner – $29.00
The rise and rise of Collin Morikawa may well continue at Augusta this week.
Few players as young as him have built such an impressive resume. Morikawa won the PGA Championship last year and has followed that up with a sublime win at Concession this year in the WGC-Workday Championship. He also has two other tournament wins.
He ticks every box this week and is significantly over the odds.
The Stanford product is the best ball striker on tour, ranking 1st in Strokes Gained: Approach, 5th in GIR and 18th in Proximity. He also ranks 1st in strokes gained on approach on fast/lightning greens, exactly the conditions he will face this week.
The rest of his game also suits, ranking 3rd in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green 13th in Par 4 Birdie or Better and 14th in Putting Average.
His form is excellent. He has all the class in the world. His iron game is already superior to the field. We are witnessing the budding of a genuine golf superstar.
NEXT BEST
Patrick Reed, US Masters Outright Winner – $36.00
Patrick Reed won here in 2018 and looks every bit a chance to put the green jacket on again.
He was an unpopular winner then and would be an unpopular winner now but it is hard to look past the magical putter. He leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting while he ranks 2nd in Putting Average and 4th in Par 4 Birdie or Better.
One of the key correlation courses here is Chapultepec and Reed won at the venue in 2020. He has a good record here with two other Top 25 finishes along with his win in seven starts. His recent form is tough to ignore as well with a win in the Farmers Insurance back in January.
TOP 10 AFTER ROUND 1
Matt Kuchar, Top 10 After Round 1 – $7.00
Matt Kuchar has sneakily returned to form and a hot start is expected at Augusta this week.
There is no player in the field who has gained more strokes in the opening round at Augusta so he has a history of starting well here.
He ranks 11th in the field in first round strokes gained over the last 50 rounds.
Kuchar reached the semis at the WGC Match Play and followed that with a T-12 at San Antonio last week.
TOP SENIOR
Phil Mickelson, Top Senior – $1.83
This looks a money in – money out job. Mickelson is still a legitimate contender on the PGA Tour while he tackles veterans of a different era.
Mickelson has won here three times but just as notably he has made the cut here in five of his last six trips to Augusta. Three of those have been Top 25 finishes.
It would take something disastrous for Lefty not to win this market.
TOP AUSTRALIAN
Matt Jones, Top Australian – $8.50
Five Australians will be looking to become just the second from this country to don the green jacket and it is the outsider of the five worth playing in the Top Aussie market.
Matt Jones was outstanding winning the Honda Classic a few weeks back and can make a run at his second start at Augusta.
Jones thrives on bentgrass greens, he has form at key correlation course Riviera and he ranks Top 15 in both scrambling and bogey avoidance.
He is excellent value at anything north of $5.50.
VALUE BET
Max Homa, Top 5 – $15.00
Twitter might melt down completely if Max Homa were to be fitted with the green jacket. He absolutely looks like he will contend here though at what is his second Masters.
The key push here for Homa at a big price is his form at Riviera, without question the top correlation course with Augusta. Home won this year and finished fifth the year prior.
His form is excellent with Top 22 finishes in seven of his last nine starts and he ranks Top 10 in Putting Average on Tour. He looks the best of the genuine smokeys.
