This race has been on the agenda for Red Cadeaux since he finished second in the closest finish in the history of the race last year. He was game, though. He showed a good turn of foot, which I didn’t expect, and he was very strong at the end of 3200m. Since then, he has run six times for just the one win in the Yorkshire Cup. He’s been in the placings at every run since, though, including in races like the Hong Kong Vase and the Coronation Cup.

At his last run, he finished third behind Fiorente, but a lot went against him that day and I’d be surprised if he didn’t finish in front of Fiorente here. Crucially, he meets Dunaden 2.5kg better at the weights compared to last year, a huge difference considering a nose separated them. He does have a couple of things against him, though. He’s first up in 117 days, and no horse has won off as long a break since Revenue won first up in a year in 1901.

The only horse to have nearly as long a break was Bitalli in 1923, who won off a 101 day break. He also has drawn the dreaded barrier 18, which has never produced a Melbourne Cup winner since gates were first used in 1958. He’s the weight horse but has a bit against. Nevertheless, he’s a chance.

$1400 IN FREE BETS on RED CADEAUX

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Breeding: Cadeaux Genereux x Artisia 

Bred in: United Kingdom
Nationality: United Kingdom
Trainer: Ed Dunlop
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Weight: 55.5kg
Career Stats: 30:6-8-5
Last 5 Starts: 21233
Biggest Win: Group 2 Yorkshire Cup (2800m), York (United Kingdom), 18/5/2012
Age: 7
TAB Sportsbet Fixed Odds (as at 7pm, Sunday November 4): $9