It looks like its going to be a wet day at Rosehill on Saturday for Golden Slipper day which is the richest full meeting of racing on the Australian calendar each year with five Group 1 races on the day. The weather hasn’t been kind to the racecourse and its likely the track will be a heavy rating for the day so we have based our selections around these track conditions.
The Golden Slipper itself looks to be dominated by the favourite Overreach although again with the rain it makes the race a lot more open with punters looking to find the horses that will suit the heavy going the best. We also get to see Pierro and More Joyous go around either side of the feature race and they are both likely to start as odds on favourites in their respective races although both easing slightly due to the weather.
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Race One: Neville Sellwood Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Punters are going to read no wins from two starts on a heavy track when looking at Single although first time was only at his fourth start which can have a line put through it and last time out he had to carry 58kg and didn’t run badly. I think with the 54kg and a wide barrier he can go back and finish well at double figure odds in a tough race to start the day.
Don’t Back Me: Lunayir continues to get backed in this race and is now into $3.60 which looks unders after he fail miserably on a heavy track two starts back at Warwick Farm.
Big Danger: Lights Of Heaven ran well last start at Moonee Valley finishing the race off well with the big weight. She will again have to carry 58kg against the males which is why i haven’t got her on top but has good wet form and looks well suited in this race.
Roughie: Strike The Stars has been racing in some quality races lately where he has been outclassed, he steps back to a much more winnable race here and at $15 looks the best roughie in the race.
$250 Single Free Bet
Race Two: The Schweppervescence 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Rightoncue hasn’t earned a lot of prize money although i thought his run behind Criterion last start was most impressive. I have gone with Criterion in the Golden Slipper so i think it is the right form race and at $19 you are getting fantastic value in a tough race.
Don’t Back Me: The money has come for Fuerza to win this race and is now the $4 favourite. I’m not saying he cant win but with 58kg on a heavy track with a massive field and he is likely to go back im willing to risk him.
Big Danger: In a very open and hard race to predict i think Miss Sunset who is currently at $10 is the horse to beat. She ran on strongly for a second on debut to a smart Queensland galloper and should get a good run in the race.
Roughie: Champollion’s run behind Good Job Bro in the wet was very good i thought and they ran a good time despite the ground conditions in that race. I had him on top last start at Flemington but was never suited in that race looks fantastic value at $51.
$250 Rightoncue Free Bet
Race Three: Tulloch Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: High Shot’s run in the Phar Lap Stakes i thought was a good run heading into this race where he hit the line well. The increase in distance should suit him perfectly and he has drawn a perfect barrier and will have Craig Williams on board.
Don’t Back Me: Hippopus has been backed in the race but looking at the form he is outclassed here. He has won his last two races but against much inferior opposition. The only advantage i can see is that he will go forward in the race but at the odds im happy to look past him.
Big Danger: Proverb looks to be the main danger in the race. He is coming out of the better form line races and will handle the distance having won over 1900m before. He has been well backed in the market i just think though with the big field and from barrier three he will need too much luck and doesn’t provide any value.
Roughie: Air Striker is yet to miss a place from his three starts. He is likely to go forward and will be very hard to get past in the straight at $21.
$250 High Shot Free Bet
Race Four: Vinery Stud Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Norzita only just missed in the Coolmore Classic last start and i thought her’s was the run of the race. She rates very well in the Vinery on Saturday and from barrier seven will get a dream run in transit. As long as she can handle the track which i think she will, she should be winning.
Don’t Back Me: Dear Demi was disappointing in the Coolmore Classic and when you look at Norzita’s run in that race and on level weights again you can’t see Dear Demi beating Norzita here.
Big Danger: The danger to the favourite comes in the way of Habibi who is a very unknown runner. She has a great record winning six from seven and has been well backed in the market. Keep her safe.
Roughie: Purple Muse i thought ran very well last start in the Alexandra Stakes she is very well bred and will be hitting the line strongly at $51.
$250 Norzita Free Bet
Race Five: The BMW 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Silent Achiever looks a good bet in The BMW on Saturday. She will relish the wet track and gets a weight relief from the males in the race. She has drawn barrier eight which will allow her to go back and sit off the fence and hopefully finish off too strong down the outside in the better ground.
Don’t Back Me: Fiveandahalfstar has been very impressive without winning this preparation but i think the rain has washed away his chances in the BMW and at the odds im willing to risk him.
Big Danger: In a race that a lot of runners will be coming from the back Hathras will go forward and dictate the race. He steps up in class but looks to be a very good galloper and will be hard to get past.
Roughie: If it wasn’t for the wet weather id have Kelinni on top in this race. If the track is a slow or better back him if not he is still one to include into your multiples at $15.
$250 Silent Achiever Free Bet
Race Six: Queen Of The Turf Stakes 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Despite the wet weather i cannot see More Joyous getting beaten in the race she is a superstar and has won this race the past two years by more than 2.5L each time. If the rain continues you are just getting better value.
Don’t Back Me: Red Tracer is known to grow a leg on a heavy track but looking at her form you can’t back her at $6.50 against More Joyous. She beat Risk Aversion in a photo on the heavy two starts back with similar weights thats not good enough to win this race despite being in career best form.
Big Danger: Appearance is a quality mare and warrants respect in this race. I can’t see her beating More Joyous but if a horse does its likely to be her.
Roughie: Secret Admirer will get back in the race and if they go quick up front she has the class to swamp them late at double figure odds.
$250 More Joyous Free Bet
Race Seven: Golden Slipper 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Criterion continues to be overlooked in races and i think he is outstanding value at $15 in the race. He has drawn barrier two and has won from the front and the back so Hugh Bowman wont be pressured into doing one or the other and can see how the race pans out. He is very versatile and can be backed each way at the odds.
Don’t Back Me: Punters have been trying to find a runner to beat the favourite and they latched onto Ruud Awakening shortening her odds significantly. She will be having her first start in Australia from barrier 18 in the toughest two year old race of the year. Im happy to leave her out.
Big Danger: Overreach is the obvious danger in the race and she is most likely the best horse in the race although a large 2yo field on a heavy track would you take the even money? probably not.
Roughie: Fast ‘n’ Rocking will go back from the barrier and on paper there looks to be a lot of speed in the race meaning a horse could run over the top of the leaders in the straight and if that happens i think Fast ‘n’ Rocking will be one who does it at $21.
$250 Criterion Free Bet
Race Eight: George Ryder Stakes 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Pierro is a super star and the older horses have to give him weight in the race. You wont get any bookies offering good odds for him but even at the $1.55 he looks good value but you may get better odds on race day with punters trying to bet around him.
Don’t Back Me: Shoot Out will be giving the 3yo’s weight and he has never won at Rosehill from five tries. He is yet to win on a heavy track so im willing to risk him in this race.
Big Danger: I think the 3yo’s this year are much better than our older horses thus Rebel Dane posses the biggest danger to Pierro in the race and they both get a weight relief on the other runners.
Roughie: Veyron is a New Zealand galloper who will be having his first start in Australia. Will appreciate the distance and can handle a rain affected track. He comes into the race fit and could be the horse to upset the favourite.
$250 Pierro Free Bet
Race Nine: Sebring Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Say No More run very well at her first start in Australia after travelling across from New Zealand. She is freshened up heading into this race and looks will suited in the conditions and weights.
Don’t Back Me: I thought Aeronautical was under the odds before the rain came but now i think he is way under the odds and will get out to close to double figures before race time.
Big Danger: Tiger Tees is the class runner of the race and he finds a much easier task in this field on Saturday. He enjoys the rain affected track and i think he can bounce back into the winners stall.
Roughie: Rolling Pin runs well first up and will enjoy the distance and track. At $31 he looks great value and definitely needs to be included in your selections.
$250 Say No More Free Bet
Best Bet: On a day where value is scarce Norzita looks to be a very good bet at relatively decent odds. She will get the run of the race and should be winning on Saturday.
Next Best: Due to not including the odds on favourites i think Silent Achiever is the next best bet of the day. Her run in the Ranvet was good and will appreciate the extra distance and wet track.
Best Roughie: Say No More i think looks very well suited in the last race on the day and you can get double figure odds for her. She drops seven kilos from her first run in Australia and she is a Group 1 winner back home in New Zealand.
