William Reid Stakes 2013 night Tips – Black Caviar

There’s no doubt that the headline act Friday night will take part in the last race where we see Black Caviar go for twenty four straight victories in what has been said to be here last Victorian race. although apart from Black Caviar running the program is actually a very good meeting for punters despite that race. We see some very open races that will give punters good value in any runner they like throughout the night with our best bets all providing a bit of value apart from the first two races and of course the last.

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Race One: Melbourne Signage Concepts Final 3000m Form Guide

Back Me:Rambert was very impressive last start and with the inclusion of You Think So in the field he will get in the weights lighter than that start. Looks to be a two horse race and he is weighted to win.

Black Caviar winning the Lightning Stakes at Flemington - photo by Race Horse Photos Australia (Steven Dowden)

Don’t Back Me: Aggregator is the only other runner in the market outside of my two tips so i will say that he cant win this race on Friday night.
Big Danger: You Think So looks the only real danger to Rambert in the race but will have to carry 60kg which is why i have put him as my second best for the race.
Roughie: Gotta Take Care looks the best roughie in the race and has a bit of a class advantage over the other runners at similar odds although punters havent missed him in the market.

$250 Rambert Free Bet

Race Two: Newmarket Insurance 2040m Form Guide

Back Me: Fresh Light’s win last start was very good and despite going up 1.5kg in weight i think he can win agan at Moonee Valley back to back. Luke Nolen stays on his back and will give him very chance from barrier 2.r
Don’t Back Me: Twin Soul raced well last start which was her first run in Australia. Sometimes horses can run well first up then drop off completely and im willing to risk her on Friday night at the current odds.
Big Danger: Major Coup missed the jump last start and ran very well to finish third in that race. If he can get away cleanly on Friday he should be right in this.
Roughie: Easton will go to the lead in the race and in what looks to be a race with not much speed he may get an easy lead and be hard to run down at $41.

 

$250 Fresh Light Free Bet

Race Three: Ascend Sales Trophies Plate 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: In what looks to be a tough race to dissect i am going with Eximius who will have to overcome carrying the top weight in the race but he looks to be a very classy horse on the rise and Glen Boss jumps off Chosen Moment to ride him here and at $11 looks good value.
Don’t Back Me: Angelic Light was well beaten last start against a few of these. She will have to carry the same weight from that race and will have to overcome barrier 10 at Moonee Valley which is a tough thing to do.
Big Danger: Daytona Grey ran in the Centrebet Classic last start and wasn’t beaten far in what looks to be a very quality field. Will likely go forward and make his own luck which is a massive advantage at Moonee Valley.
Roughie: If I Could has raced in some very good races during his career. He see’s a much more winnable field here and at $15 looks good value.

 

$250 Eximius Free Bet

Race Four: Schweppes Alexandra Stakes 1600m Form Guide

Back Me: I thought Kazanluk’s run in the The Mittys Vanity was huge and i was expecting her to open a lot closer in the market to You’re So Good so i im pleasantly surprised to see that she is at $7 which looks great value.
Don’t Back Me: Alzora was disappointing last start at Flemington and would need to improve a lot from that run to figure here where she will also have to carry the top weight.
Big Danger: You’re So Good will likely start as the short priced favourite and rightfully so. Looks to be the horse to beat in the race although i feel she is a little under the odds.
Roughie: Purple Muse is coming out of a country maiden although she is very well bred and her win at Ballarat showed she is a very good filly. Should be a lot shorter in the market and the $41 looks very generous.

 

$250 Kazanluk Free Bet

Race Five: Essendon Mazda 55 Challenge Ht 955m Form Guide

Back Me: Canali’s run in the Bob Hoysted was very good i thought and fron that run will only go up in the weights 1kg. They ran a very quick time in that race and if he can go close to that should be right in this race and should get the run of the race from barrier 4.
Don’t Back Me: Esprit De Bullet has a good record at the distance but is droping from 1100m back to 955m here which is a big worry against such a quality field.
Big Danger: The 55 second mark could be broken again Friday night with Fab Fevola breaking 55 last time out in what looked to be a pretty easy run for him, he arguably could have beaten the record currently held by Vatican had he been pushed out during the race.
Roughie: Day Procedure drops a lot of weight from his last start win which was very good where he won over 1000m in a good time. With the weight allowance he could be very hard to beat at double figure odds.

 

$250 Canali Free Bet

Race Six: Sunlike Stakes 1600m Form Guide

Back Me: Lights Of Heaven is a class above this field and her second up record is very good. If she has returned close to her best than she should be winning this race easily and hasn’t been badly weighted with 57kg.
Don’t Back Me: Hi Belle has had three starts at Moonee Valley for just the one placing. Finds a tough field here and at the odds looks to be the one to leave out.
Big Danger: Going into the race in very good form Spirit Song looks to be the biggest danger to Lights Of Heaven and she always goes well at Moonee Valley, but at the same weights i feel she is the second pick.
Roughie: Gail has been a bit disappointing this preparation being beaten as favourite last start. She is at huge odds of $31 in this race and could finish over the top of them.

 

$250 Lights Of Heaven Free Bet

Race Seven: Jeep Don’t Hold Back Handicap 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Academy Jack finished off well behind Ninth Legion at Sandown last start who went on to win at Bendigo on the weekend in a good race. Will have to overcome barrier 10 on Friday night but looks the value runner of the race at $10.
Don’t Back Me: Champagne Shisha has won her past two starts but i think this is a much tougher race than those two and i dont expect her to make it three straight wins.
Big Danger: Mecir had a lot go wrong for him at Canterbury last start and is a much better horse than where he finished. Should be able to bounce back with a good run in this race on  Friday night.
Roughie: I’m still waiting for Too Deadly to show his true potential and his last run wasn’t too bad. At $15 he is worth throwing into your multiples.

 

$250 Academy Jack Free Bet

Race Eight: William Reid Stakes 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: In what is only a watch race Black Caviar will win this as she has done the previous 23 times.
Don’t Back Me: The rest of the field.
Big Danger: Nothing
Roughie: No horse will beat Black Caviar but perhaps Fawkner is a good place chance.

 

$250 Black Caviar Free Bet

Best Bet: The night will have lots of good racing but my Best Bet of the night is Lights Of Heaven who you can still get around $5 for in fixed odds betting.

Next Best: In another very tough race i think Canali looks good value at $5 fixed and should run very well if he can go on from his Bob Hoysted run.

Best Roughie: Eximius looks to be the best value bet of the night and Glen Boss thinks so as well jumping off another runner in the race to ride him.

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