Rosehill will host an eight race meeting on Saturday for Hobartville Stakes day in which we see the return of Pierro where he is likely to jump as an odds on favourite although he will have to be the first horse to beat Rebel Dane if he is to win. The other feature races on the day are the Millie Fox Stakes in which we see the return of Secret Admirer who is currently the second favourite behind Red Tracer in the race and the Silver Slipper Stakes which is always a good form race for the Golden Slipper.
The weather in Sydney has been horrible and it is very likely that we will see a heavy track so our form will be based on those horses who should be able to handle the wet track.
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Race One: Endeavour Recycled Cloth Handicap 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Said Com has a class advantage over this field and i thought he was unlucky last start when beaten by Bello and should be too hard to hold off on Saturday. He is proving in slow ground so i am not worried the he wont handle the ground and at $4 fixed at the moment i think he is great value.
Don’t Back Me: Single has had one start on a heavy track and was beaten a long way in a similar class race. I dont think he handles the wet track and im happy to leave him out at his current odds of $7.
Big Danger: Bello looks the danger to Said Com in the race having struck some great form recently he gets in well with the weights and has a great record at the track.
Roughie: It doesn’t look like a race with a lot of value on offer with the small field and all runners given a chance of winning although i think Hoylonny is at great each way odds and if he can handle the track which is a small query he will go very close to winning this.
$250 Said Com Free Bet
Race Two: Endeavour Packaging BM 75 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: It looks a tough race on paper and the weather doesn’t make it any easier. I think Coup Acclaim is a big chance in this race he was scratched on Wednesday which i had him marked as one of the best bets of the day and this looks a similar quality race and he likes the wet.
Don’t Back Me: Cannot have Al’s Gold in this race with his wet track form. I doubt he can go close to them in the heavy going and im happy to leave him out.
Big Danger: There really isn’t any exposed form for Hathras although he has been backed to win the race so i have to put him as the danger for Coup Acclaim but happy to see him make his debut in Australia before backing him.
Roughie: Rivalled seems to grow a leg in the wet and i think at the double figure odds you could do a lot worse than back him each way in a tough race.
$250 Coup Acclaim Free Bet
Race Three: G.A. Towton Cup 2200m Form Guide
Back Me: Frozen Rope has shown he loves the wet with three wins and a third from four starts on Heavy going. Has been in great form lately and its hard not to back a horse who is winning in conditions that suit him against a field that dont seem to do to well on rain affected tracks.
Don’t Back Me: Carry Me Bluey doesn’t handle the wet very well and at his current price of $5 he looks to be unders in the market and im happy to leave him out.
Big Danger: Pelicano looks to be the big danger to Frozen Rope in this race. He will be having his first Sydney start and has had one run on a slow track when he made up a stack of ground to run fourth. A few queries around him but looks the best horse on paper if things go right.
Roughie: The best roughie in the race has to be Kaypers and punters havent missed him with his odds shortening from $15 into $11 since the rain hit Sydney.
$250 Frozen Rope Free Bet
Race Four: Fireball Quality 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: This looks to be the hardest race on the card with basically all horses having the ability to win the race thus i am going for some value in Catkins who has an impeccable first up record and if she can handle the heavy track looks to be right in this race at $15.
Don’t Back Me: A very even race and ive found it hard to rule out a horse in the market but if i had to take one out it would be Knight Exemplar who is yet to win a race in a field full of winners.
Big Danger: Charge Account looks the obvious danger after two very impressive wins in his last two starts and with a front running pattern should suit the heavy track.
Roughie: When you have a $15 tip you r Roughie must be even longer and it is. Rusambo looks to be well over the odds in the race and at $34 should be right in the finish, it would pay to have something each way on him.
$250 Catkins Free Bet
Race Five: Silver Slipper Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: When your likely to be racing on a Heavy 10 and you have a two year old race with most runners untried in the conditions it’s tough to find a winner. Sweet Idea looks to be a good bet at $7 with a good second in the Magic Millions Classic.
Don’t Back Me: Im going to say Charlie Boy is under the odds in the race. In such an open field i think the $4.20 doesn’t provide any value for punters. Not saying he cant win but theres better odds on offer around other runners.
Big Danger: Kuroshio has good form around the Blue Diamond Stakes and should be kept safe in the race.
Roughie: Romantic Moon looks a good roughie in the race. Out of More Than Ready so should relish the wet track and the wide barrier could be a blessing by race time.
$250 Sweet Idea Free Bet
Race Six: Hobartville Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: It looks to be a fantastic race although you have to go with Pierro in the race despite the tough competition and his short odds but he is just a class horse and if he has returned with the ability he has shown in his last preparations should win.
Don’t Back Me: Has been backed to win the race but Mulaazem i feel is way under the odds. He beat a field of stayers last start and doesn’t look anywhere near classy enough to beat the likes of this field.
Big Danger: You cant argue with a perfect record which is why Rebel Dane looks the main danger for Pierro in the race. It should be a good duel between the two.
Roughie: A New Zealand galloper on a wet track who has only lost one race from seven starts and is currently $21 in the market? Thats why i have Sacred Falls as the best roughie.
$250 Pierro Free Bet
Race Seven: Millie Fox Stakes 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: Red Tracer is yet to be beaten on a Heavy track and has a great second up record which is why she has been heavily backed in this race. She is currently $1.90 to win which is still okay but any lower and id tend to make it a watch only race. I think she will win but getting into unback-able odds.
Don’t Back Me: Driefontein hasn’t been that impressive this preparation and she finds a tough race here. I can’t have her at her current odds.
Big Danger: The only danger in the race is Secret Admirer who is likely to be scratched if the rain continues which will make it a one horse affair.
Roughie: Risk Aversion handles the wet and is a very handy galloper and at $34 is worth including in your multiples although i doubt she can upset the favourite two runners.
$250 Red Tracer Free Bet
Race Eight: Endeavour Rally BM85 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: A big open field to end the day which looks to be a great betting race. I like Maroney Avenue who is currently $12 which looks fantastic value as she handles the wet track and has won two from three over the distance. Receives a two kilo claim and should be hard to hold out.
Don’t Back Me: Hard to rule out a runner in this race but im going to say race favourite Whitlam can’t make it three straight wins due to meeting the field at worse weights this start.
Big Danger: Keith’s Legacy looks the biggest danger in the race and handles a wet track and has a great first up record. Could be under the odds with recent support from punters but should be kept safe.
Roughie: Altered Boy looks to be good value in the race. He has good wet form and can throw up a big run every so often and Saturday might be his day at $26.
