Caulfield will host Saturday’s feature race meeting around the country with the first Group 1 race being run in the way of the Memsie Stakes which includes a star studded field of runners including the unbeaten Atlantic Jewel who is likely to start as the odds on favourite.
The current track condition is a Dead 4 and there is forecast for some rain around Caulfield over the next 24 hours although i doubt it will be enough to cause a downgrade in the track and its likely we will be racing on Dead condition.
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Race One: Lucrf Jockeys Trust (bm78) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Spirit Of Heaven will have to carry the top weight but the 3kg claim brings her down to 57kg meaning she is very well weighted in the race. She beat a good field first up and was unlucky in a good race last start. She looks to have a lot of class and in a pretty weak field i expect her to be winning and winning well on Saturday.
Don’t Back Me: Marianne won well last start but that was on a heavy track which she wont get here. Her only other start was down the track in what i think isn’t that great of a form line so im happy to risk her at the odds here.
Big Danger: Miralago has had two starts for a win and a second and she looks to have plenty of ability. Will get a good run from barrier 4 and Luke Nolen will give her every chance although i doubt she can beat her stable mate.
Roughie:Star Fashion didn’t do much on debut although that was on a heavy track. Back on top of the ground she should be much better and at $41 looks good value.
$250 Spirit Of Heaven Free Bet
Race Two: Sportingbet Sprint Series Heat 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Angels Beach was sent out as a short priced favourite last start and with the big weight, extra distance and wide barrier she wasn’t able to hit the line as strong as we saw her first two runs. Back to the 1000m and the drop in weight will suit and she looks very hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Vain Queen has won her three starts although John Sadler has been very cautious with her heading into the race and it seems he isn’t that confident and he is usually on the money. Happy to risk her in this quality race at the price.
Big Danger: Red Fez is a very talented galloper who has been racing in some good races throughout her career. Expecting her to return better than last preparation and looks a major chance on Saturday.
Roughie: Mybenz wont be suited over the distance but she has a good first up record and the ability to run a big race first up. Will settle out the back and be the horse running on late at $26.
$250 Angels Beach Free Bet
Race Three: Hocking Stuart Hcp 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Roman Treasure was never suited in his first start in Australia and when you take a look at it wasn’t too bad. Will be better suited over the 1400m and she drops 3.5kg in weight. She will get every chance from barrier 4 and im expecting her to go very close at $17 in what looks to be a relatively weak race.
Don’t Back Me: Ava’s Delight will have to overcome barrier 17 which is always a tough task and dropping back in distance again will not suit her. Has had four tries over the distance for just the one placing so im happy to leave her out of my selections here.
Big Danger: Oriental Ruby hit the line well last start in a good form race. Will be better suited over this distance and she gets into the weights well and should be hard to beat.
Roughie: Mosse Diva will go forward in the race and with the drop in weight from last start she will likely be able to dictate the race and will be tough to run down at double figure odds.
$250 Roman Treasure Free Bet
Race Four: H.d.f Mcneil Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Miracles Of Life has won four from four including the Blue Diamond Stakes last preparation. She returns here and will have to carry the big weight but she was arguably the best two year old this season and should have come on well from that preparation. She should be able to continue her unbeaten record here and the $2.60 is a good price i feel.
Don’t Back Me: Prince Harada has won two from two although the quality of gallopers in this race is a big step up to what he has been racing against so at $4.20 in betting im happy to leave him out.
Big Danger: Fast ‘n’ Rocking was impressive last start and probably should have won with some luck although that is the case he has had in most of his runs. Will be suited by the 1400m distance and could chalk up his first win here.
Roughie: Za Moulin Rouge won impressively at her only career start and her breeding suggests she will be better over further which she is here. Looks the horse who could throw up a surprise at big odds of $15.
$250 Miracles Of Life Free Bet
Race Five: Bmw Hcp 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: High Esteem ran a big race in the PB Lawrence Stakes at WFA conditions were he carried 58.5kg. I would think he will be taken to the front with the light weight on Saturday and in a race that there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed he should be able to dictate and give a good kick in the straight.
Don’t Back Me: Strawberry Boy will likely start as the short priced favourite although i will be leaving him out of my selections. He is likely to go forward with High Esteem and i think the 4kg pull in the weights to the latter will be the difference.
Big Danger: Lidari has a very good first up record and im expecting him to run a big race first up on Saturday were he is at very good odds of $13 in betting.
Roughie: Goldoni will be better over further although i think he can run a big race first up on Saturday were he is a $17 chance in betting. He is likely to go back and if there is a decent tempo he will be hitting the line well late.
$250 High Esteem Free Bet
Race Six: Theshark.com.au Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Jolie Bay is a very good galloper who matched it with some of the best sprinters in the country during the Spring last year. She has been given plenty of time to mature and i think she will be back and better than ever which will see her win this race on Saturday were she is very good odds of $4.60.
Don’t Back Me: Pocket Rockets has been backed into a terrible price. He has been racing against what have been relatively weak fields and he meets perhaps two super star mares returning here. I think they are the only two you would want to be backing in single figures.
Big Danger: Samaready came back after an impressive two year old season and failed in a race she should have bolted in although there could be excuses that it was on a heavy track. Has been given a year off since then and if she is near her best she will be hard to beat but you will be risking your money that she has which is why she isn’t on top.
Roughie: Anise i think is the forgotten runner in the race and is likely to be sent out at massive odds. She has a very good first up record and over the distance she has only missed the placings on two occasions from nine tries. Hasn’t handled the Caulfield track in the past but from barrier 2 she will get a soft run and be right in the finish at $15.
$250 Jolie Bay Free Bet
Race Seven: Slickpix Stakes 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Folding Gear is a quality galloper and he loves it at Caulfield he is drawn wide but will go back in the race anyways. He will be hitting the line well and i think in this class and the drop in weights he will be very hard to hold out at massive odds of $21 and looks a great each way bet in a much more open race than betting suggests.
Don’t Back Me: Pakal won by a big margin last start although he had all of the favours in that race in which was a much weaker field than he meets on Saturday. He will have to overcome the wide barrier and at $3.30 im happy to bet around him at some value runners.
Big Danger: Pelicano’s run last start was massive when coming from back in the field and hitting the line very strongly. He will be better suited over this distance and his second up form suggests he will be very hard to beat at $9 in this race.
Roughie: Zabisco i thought was unlucky first up at Flemington when getting back and not really having any clear running room in the straight. He races much better second up which he is here and the distance will suit him much better as well. He is currently a $41 chance in betting which is definitely overs.
$250 Folding Gear Free Bet
Race Eight: N.z. Bloodstock Memsie Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Atlantic Jewel is a superstar and i think we will see her return at her best on Saturday. Mark Kavanagh i feel wouldn’t be running her if he knew she wouldn’t be winning. She will go forward and over 1400m will show too much zip for some of the stayers in the race.
Don’t Back Me: It’s A Dundeel is coming off a campaign in which he won the triple crown in Sydney although over the 1400m with 58.5kg ill be happy to risk him at the odds of $4.80.
Big Danger: Super Cool continued to improve last preparation and he just oozes quality and got better and better from each run. I expect him to come back better than ever being so lightly raced and despite the distance not suiting i think he will put in a massive run first up at $17 in the Memsie.
Roughie: Fiorente put in a massive run first up during the Autumn behind All Too Hard and if he can do the same here he could be the horse to swwop past the favourite late in the race at $15.
$250 Atlantic Jewel Free Bet
Best Bet: Jolie Bay
Next Best: Atlantic Jewel
Best Roughie: Folding Gear
