Guelph lines up as the dominate $1.40 favourite in Wednesday’s 1000 Guineas where she will be seeking her fourth Group 1 win. It’s hard to find a genuine reason why the Darley representative will not be successful given her overall race and recent performances in particular. Should there be a boilover, according to the betting market, it is most likely to come from the lightly raced by promising May’s Dream ($8.00).
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1. GUELPH – K McEvoy (5)
The daughter of Exceed and Excel, whose only two starts at a mile have resulted in victories in the G1 Champagne Stakes (as a 2yo) and, at her most recent start, the G1 Flight Stakes a week and a half ago, where she easily accounted for Sensibility and Bound For Earth winning by 1 ¾ length. Whilst there appears to be little pace in this race, Kerrin McEvoy will ensure the filly has plenty of time to wind up and once she hits top gear, it is hard not to see her adding to her winning and Group 1 tallies with another victory here.
2. GREGERS – C Schofield (2)
After a good effort two starts back against the males in the G2 Danehill Stakes (fifth, beaten 1 ½ lengths) up the Flemington straight, the David Hayes trained runner enjoyed returning to her own sex by winning the G2 1000 Guineas Prelude (1400m) just over three weeks ago. She was afforded a lovely run from a good draw in the Prelude settling just behind the leaders and, after securing an inside run, was able to hold off all challengers to win by a head. Had every chance last start but she’s drawn to get another good run here and each of her six runs, of which she has won four, cannot be faulted.
3. BOUND FOR EARTH – J McDonald (7)
The Northern Meteor filly resumed from a spell after showing plenty of promise in three starts earlier in the year, with a nose win over Guelph in the G2 Furious Stakes (1200m) in the first week of September. She has lined up against Guelph in both the G2 Tea Rose Stakes (1400m) and G1 Flight Stakes (1600m) in her two runs since, finishing third on both occasions beaten 3.1 and 2.6 lengths respectively. Whilst each of those runs have been good, on those efforts it would be too hard to suggest she could turn the tables on the favourite here.
4. SE SAUVER – D Lane (4)
After an impressive victory when breaking her maiden status in a Pakenham Maiden three starts ago, the Bel Esprit filly then lined up in the G2 1000 Guineas Prelude (1400m). She got too far back in a race dominated by those up front and was doing her best work late when sixth (beaten 4.4 lengths) behind Gregers. Her next and most recent start was a tough win after racing wide from a poor draw in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m). The only blot on her form in five runs this preparation has been in the Prelude where she had genuine excuses. A progressive type of filly that is capable of filling a place here.
5. MAY’S DREAM – N Hall (3)
Appears to have inherited her dam’s – She’s Archie, ability. She’s Archie ran second to Makybe Diva in the 2003 Melbourne Cup and won the S.A. Oaks as 3yo. May’s Dream has won two of her four starts including her most recent start, only her second run back from a spell, with a comfortable 1 ¼ length win over Bulbula in an Open class (1400m) race at Caulfield just over a fortnight ago. Bulbula, who has one from eight starts, ran third (beaten 3.2 lengths) in a G3 race on Saturday but May’s Dream, by New Approach, has showed plenty of promise and would still have plenty of room for improvement third up at this her third run in. Her breeding suggests the mile will suit and she’s the only runner to have firmed in betting from $9.00 to $8.00.
6. GODIVA ROCK – D Dunn (9)
The Stratum filly showed plenty of promise at her first two starts, running third (beaten 2 ¾ lengths) behind Guelph in G3 Blue Diamond Prelude and backing that up with a third placing again in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes, only 1.6 lengths behind Miracles of Life (Gregers fourth, Guelph ninth). In three runs since returning from a spell, the Mick Kent trained runner is still searching for that elusive maiden victory though. She had little luck in the run and over the concluding stages when fourth (beaten 3 ¼ lengths) behind Solicit in a fillies race at Moonee Valley (1200m) two starts back as 9/4 favourite before, at her last start, having to go forward from a wide gate in the G2 Edward Manifold (1400m) to lead before weakening late running eighth behind Se Seuver (beaten 3 ¼ lengths) Not much has gone right at her last two starts but recording her maiden win in G1 company is a big ask.
7. MIRACLE TO ME – C Symons (8)
Made it three wins from six starts with a strong finishing effort up the Flemington straight course recording a nose win over Bulbula (whose form has been only fair since) in an Open class race (1100m). The John McArdle filly then got too far back in a leader dominated race when eighth, beaten 6.7 lengths, in the G2 1000 Guineas Prelude (1400m) at her following start. She was better for having had that run over 1400m and appreciated a far more genuine tempo when finishing well for fourth (beaten 1.9 lengths) behind Paximadia in the Listed Vintage Stakes (1410m) at her most recent start, just over a week ago. She will probably be travelling near the tail of the field and hard to see her running down the more fancied chances in the straight.
8. WORDPLAY – D Oliver (6)
Anthony Cummings trains this well bred daughter of Fastnet Rock (half sister to G1 winner Fiveandahalfstar) who, at her first start in Victoria, started a well supported 5/1 chance in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m). She had to fight for her run through the field in the straight and, in a race won by those coming home out wide and down the centre of the track, she was solid late running fifth (beaten 2.4 lengths) behind Se Sauver. She’ll be better for having had the experience at the Melbourne way of going and the Edward Manifold effort followed a strong second to Savvy Nature in the G3 Spring Stakes (1600m) at Newcastle. The form from that race has stood up well since.
9. GYPSY DIAMOND – B Prebble (4)
Her two runs back from a brief spell have seen her finish strongly for a third (13/4 favourite) in a F&M’s BM 70 graded race before again getting back in the Listed Reginald Allen Stakes (1400m) and finishing seventh of eleven behind Champagne Cath. Champagne Cath was able to dominate from the front last start and from gate four today, over a mile with the chance of the tempo being only moderate, they may try to take a more forward position here. That being said, her only win from five starts came in a Kembla Maiden when on debut and she’s entitled to be a big price here.
RACE SUMMARY
It is impossible to go past Guelph here. She is unbeaten in her four starts at or beyond 1400m and dominated her rivals in her past two races. She’ll be mid-field during the run, one off the fence and be finishing too strongly down the centre of the track, continuing Darley’s extraordinary results in 3yo feature races this season thus far. Having beaten and run third to Guelph in her past three starts, Bound for Earth goes in. She’s drawn a little awkwardly in gate seven but entrust McDonald, who has been riding well, will have her placed to advantage throughout. Gregers hasn’t put a foot wrong in any of her races and despite having her first attempt at a mile off a three week break, there appears to be little pace in the race on paper. From two, as she did in the Prelude, she’ll be able to take a forward position and be in the right spot turning. Thought the value may come from Se Sauver and/or Wordplay. The former didn’t have an easy run last start but still managed to score a narrow win whilst Wordplay was good against the males two starts ago and Oliver, who is in good form, goes on.
- GUELPH
- BOUND FOR EARTH
- GREGERS
- WORDPLAY
