“A difficult golf course eliminates a lot of players. The U.S. Open flag eliminates a lot of players. Some players just weren’t meant to win the U.S. Open. Quite often, a lot of them know it.” – Jack Nicklaus, on the traditional Open setup.
And with that we are off to San Francisco, California for the 112th US Open being played on The Lake Course at The Olympic Club. It is a Par 70, 7170 yard course with bentgrass greens and 62 sand bunkers.
The Lake Course is a traditional US Open style setup which will be a test for all those teeing it up this week. It will be punishing and brutal with narrow fairways, thick rough and greens on the small size. Jack Nicklaus has hit the nail on the head. Many players will be beaten before they have even walked onto the first tee.
This week will be a true test of shot making with the narrow fairways ready to punish any player who strays off track. If you do happen to leave the fairway you can expect to find yourself in the thick rough that is sure to test even the most experienced players. Then you have to contend with the smaller than average greens which will prove hard to hit in regulation should you find yourself playing from anywhere other than the fairway.
Players with good scrambling stats always rank highly in the US Open. Being able to get yourself out of trouble and still make Par will be paramount if you wish to be contending on Sunday.
Looking at the field this week we have 48 from the Top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings. There are also 10 past US Open Champions including Graeme McDowell, Geoff Ogilvy and Retief Goosen and 22 Major winners like David Toms, Davis Love III, Vijay Singh and Padraig Harrington .
There are also players representing many countries such as Sweden, Korea, Australia, Denmark, Scotland, Italy, France, Spain, Argentina and Japan.
So who are the Top Ten most fancied players this week?
Tiger Woods 7/1. Memorial winner last start, also won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March. Has won 3 US Opens in 2000, 2002 and 2008.
Lee Westwood 12/1. Won Nordea Masters last week, four Top 10’s from 7 starts on PGA Tour in 2012, T3rd in Masters. 2011 US Open was T3rd.
Luke Donald 14/1. Last four starts 3-6-1-12. Won Transitions Championship and BMW PGA Championship.
Rory McIlroy 15/1. Defending Champion. Won Honda Classic in April. Six Top 5’s from 11 starts this season.
Phil Mickelson 20/1. Won AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am. 13 starts this season for five Top 10’s. Has finished 2nd on five occasions at US Open.
Jason Dufner 30/1. Has had Two wins and a 2nd from last four starts, Zurich Classic of New Orleans and Byron Nelson.
Dustin Johnson 30/1. Won St Jude Classic last week. Was second start after 3 month injury break. Four Top 10’s from nine starts in 2012.
Matt Kuchar 30/1. Won Players Championship in May. 12 starts this season for five Top 10’s. Was T14th in 1998 at Olympic as an Amateur.
Justin Rose 33/1. Three Top 10’s in last three starts. Won WGC Cadillac Championship in March.
Rickie Fowler 33/1. Won Wells Fargo Championship in May. T2nd at Players Championship a week later.
All more than capable of performing on their day and coming away with the win. And to think there are another 146 players who wil be pushing them all the way.
This week we have three golfers who fit the bill and all rate well in the stats that are required to play well on a US Open course.
They are:-
Justin Rose 33/1
Justin is having one of his best years on tour this season. He is hitting form at just the right time and looks like he has his game exactly where he needs it to be for a US Open assault. Not many players can boast of the record he is putting together in 2012. From 11 starts on the PGA Tour he has had seven Top 25 finishes, five Top 10’s and a Win! That’s pretty good going in anyone’s book.
His win was in the WGC Cadillac Championship in March where he saw off players of the calibre of Bubba Watson, Rory McIlroy and Charl Schwartzel. His other Top 10 finishes were T5th in the Honda Classic, T8th in The Masters, T10th in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and 8th at The Memorial Tournament.
He also played two events on the European tour in May where he was 9th in the Volvo Match Play Championship and 2nd in the BMW PGA Championship. That means he has been in the Top ten in his last three tournaments!
When you look at his stats you will notice that his game should suit the Olympic Club down to the ground. 19th in driving accuracy, 3rd in GIR, 6th in scoring average, 6th in all round ranking, 8th in ball striking, 6th in scrambling, 1st in par 4 performance, 8th in scrambling from the rough, 4th in GIR 200 yards +, 7th in GIR 175-200 yards, 14th in GIR 150-175 yards and 6th in GIR 125-150 yards.
I expect the World No.7 to be right up there on Sunday challenging for his first Major win in his career.
Louis Oosthuizen 60/1
When it comes to the big tournaments there is one player who always seems to be up there in contention and that’s Louis Oosthuizen. He won the Open Championship at St Andrews in 2010. From there he was T9th in the 2011 US Open at Congressional and this year he was 2nd at The Masters after going down to Bubba Watson in a play off.
This season he has had 10 starts on the PGA Tour and had some very good results. Those being 17th WGC Match Play, T20th Transitions Championship, 3rd Shell Houston Open, 2nd at The Masters and T19thnCrowne Plaza Invitational.
He has also had three starts on the European tour which have all been fantastic results. The kicked the season off with a Win in the African Open followed by a 7th in the Volvo Golf Championship. In April he also Won the Malaysian Open.
2012 has been a good season so far. And there is no reason why that can not continue this week.
Louis has two sets of stats that we can look at as he has played on both tours this season. Both sets of stats all suggest that he will enjoy the layout at the Olympic Club.
European stats have him as 1st in GIR, 1st in putts per GIR, 2nd in sand saves, 3rd in stroke average, 12th in putts per round and 40th in driving accuracy.
Looking at his PGA Stats he is 23rd in all round ranking, 20th in ball striking, 22nd in par 4 performance, 16th in GIR 200+ yards and 9th in GIR other than fairway.
For a guy who enjoys the challenge of the Majors and has stats like this, he has to be a very good chance to continue on his great Majors run this week.
Francesco Molinari 100/1
For a player who has had 12 starts on the PGA and European tour this season and has managed nine Top 20 finishes you cant go past Francesco. Especially at 100/1.
Those 12 starts have also brought up four Top 10’s and a Win. He Won the Open De Espana in May by three shots. Other notible finishes have been 8th Abu Dhabi Golf Championship, 6th China Open and 7th BMW PGA Championship.
On US soil he has had four starts which were T17th WGC Match Play, T13th WGC Cadillac Championship, T19th The Masters and a missed cut at The Players.
Again due to playing on both tours we have two sets of stats to look at which will give us a better picture of what we can expect from him.
On the European tour he is ranked 15th in stroke average, 32nd in driving accuracy, 6th in GIR and 25 in putts per round while on the PGA tour he is 2nd in driving accuracy, 21st in GIR, 1st in strokes gained putting, 18th in scrambling and 1st in scrambling from the rough.
Francesco is sure to give us a great run for our money and could prove to be a very good each way bet.
Good luck and good punting.
