This week we head to Florida for the 43rd edition of The Honda Classic being played at PGA National Golf Club in Palm Beach Gardens where it has been played since 2007.
PGA National is a Par 70, 7158 yard course that is ranked as one of the most difficult on the PGA Tour. There are 78 sand bunkers and 26 water hazards which make for a very demanding course. The greens are Bermuda grass and they are large with a lot of contours. The fairways are tight with tough rough just off them. They are also surrounded by bunkers and water. This is one beast of a course which is sure to claim many victims this week.
Watch out for the Par 3, 17th hole which is the shortest hole on the course and is rated the hardest. There is water to the right and a bunker left and long. If the wind is coming from left to right watch out for a few players to come unstuck on this one. The green has a 30 foot landing area too. The 17th is also part of what is known as the ‘Bear Trap’ which includes the 15th and 16th holes which are a Par 3 and Par 4. It will surely make for enjoyable viewing!
Looking at the field this week we have a great line up of players. The Bookies Top 5 in betting are: 9/1 Rory McIlroy, 9/1 Tiger Woods, 18/1 Adam Scott, 20/1 Graeme McDowell and 22/1 Sergio Garcia.
Looking at the past winners list there has been a real international flavour in recent years. 2012 Rory McIlroy, Northern Ireland. 2011 Rory Sabbatini, South Africa. 2010 Camillo Villegas, Colombia. 2009 Y.E.Yang, South Korea. 2008 Ernie Els, South Africa. 2007 Mark Wilson, USA. 2006 Luke Donald, England. 2005 Padraig Harrington, Ireland.
Perhaps that trend could continue in 2014? I am hoping it will not!
Looking at the stats this week we need to focus on accuracy over distance as the fairways do not allow for any wayward shots as the rough is relentless and the fairways are tight. Add to this the sand bunkers and water hazards and we are looking for someone who can plot their way around PGA National rather than gripping and ripping.
Putting will also play a big factor as the greens are very big with lots of contours so look for a lag putter who also likes the Bermuda greens. Guys with a Florida connection should also be considered.
The wind can really bear its teeth here at times so also take this into consideration. Also look for good scramblers.
Past winners here have also ranked well in the Par 4 performance stats.
So in summary we are after a straight driver, who putts well, has great GIR, scrambles well, plays well in the wind and has a Florida connection. Not asking for much as we!!!
Taking all this into consideration I have come up with the following two guys who fit the bill.
Patrick Reed 66/1 at Sportsbet.com.au
Patrick turned Pro in 2011 and in that time he has turned a lot of heads. The 23 year old has a big future ahead and many believe he will be a Major contender.
Have a look at his numbers. In week 10 of 2012 he was ranked number 1424 in the World. He started 2013 as no.584 and finished the year at no.69. After five starts in 2014 he is now up to no.44 in the world. That is a fast progression!
Last season Reed had 29 starts and made 17 cuts. The highlight was his maiden PGA Tour win at the Wyndham Championship after beating Jordan Spieth in a play-off. Other notable mentions are 5th St Jude Classic, T7th AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am, T7th John Deere Classic and T9th Canadian Open.
This year he has hit the ground running again, claiming victory by two shots in the Humana Challenge. He was T16th in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, prior to his Humana win. He followed his victory up with a T19th in the Phoenix Open then it was a T13th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am and last weekend he was T17th at the WGC Accenture Match Play where he beat Graham DeLaet in the first round. In round two it took George Coetzee 21 holes to beat him.
Those are some pretty impressive numbers again! 16-1-19-13-17 and it is only his second full season the PGA Tour. If you want more numbers check out his stats. 2oth in Greens in Regulation, 24th in Strokes Gained Putting, 7th in All Round rankings, 6th in Par 4 Birdie or better averages and 13th in Ball Striking. All great stats for this tournament.
Will MacKenzie 90/1 at Sportsbet.com.au
MacKenzie gets the nod for our second selection this week due to his form this season and past form in this tournament. When it comes to his past few seasons he has been all over the shop. He spent 2013 on the web.com tour where he made 14 cuts from 21 starts. 2012 saw 6 starts on the PGA Tour for 3 made cuts and 18 starts on the web.com for 7 made cuts. 2011 was pretty much the same story. 14 starts on the PGA Tour for 10 made cuts and 10 on the web.com for 6 made cuts.
This year something seems to have clicked with him. 5 starts so far have seen a missed cut in the Sony Open, T13th Humana Challenge, T7th Farmers Insurance Open, T13th AT7T Pebble Beach Pro Am and T52nd Northern Trust Open.
It is also worth noting that Will has had four starts at this course with the most recent being in 2010 when he finished 12th. He was 5th in 2009, 65th in 2009 and 22nd in 2008 so you can expect him to play well here this week as he lives close by and will feel like it is a home game.
His stats this year have him 13th in Scoring average, 35th in Greens in Regulation, 23rd in Strokes Gained Putting, 2nd in All Round stats, 19th in Ball Striking, 21st in Birdie average and 6th in Par 5 birdie or better average.
Last Week
Winner, winner, chicken dinner! Jason Day saluted for us at 20/1 in the WGC Accenture Match Play.
Good Luck and Good Punting.
