Let the National Rugby League season begin. The 26 home and away rounds are done and dusted and now the serious football is about to be played. Here is my preview of the NRL week one finals.
Qualifying Final 1
Canterbury (1) v Manly (4) at 7.45pm, ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Surely there will be 70,000 people there on Friday night. It’s a dream for promoter’s…Hasler vs the club he walked out on, Toovey, the apprentice, vs Hasler, his former master. The two teams hate each other…It promises to be one of the best finals in history.
Manly will go into this game as favourites and they have every right to be after winning six on the trot. They were here 12 months ago and did the job. The one thing that could be against them is all the hype around them having to face off against Hasler, who took them to premiership glory 12 months ago. Despite that, they have played some outstanding football recently and will be hard to beat.
The Bulldogs have been the top team all year. The key here is pressure. They have gone through the motions this season, but nothing can or will prepare them for the intensity and brutality they’ll face here. But I think the positive is that their superstar fullback Ben Barba will be on a high after claiming Rugby League’s highest honour, the Dally M Medal for being the best player throughout the 2012 season.
Tip: Take under 36.5 points in the match at $1.80. It’ll be a low scoring game given there is so much to play for. The winner gets a week break and a preliminary final in Sydney.
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Qualifying Final 2
Melbourne (2) v South Sydney (3) at 5.45pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne
I am very keen on Melbourne here. 10 weeks ago we were saying they looked tired and had enough. But over the past few weeks, they do seem quite fresh and enthusiastic. They have won their past five matches with the big three (Slater, Cronk and Smith) being fairly well contained by their rivals and that is bad news for South Sydney because that trio will click and spark Melbourne into action soon and could well be on Saturday night.
South Sydney have been fantastic this season, but I just question their form heading into the weekend. They flogged Parramatta, which isn’t hard, then they took care of Newcastle, but the scoreline was only 18-6, where it could have (maybe should have been) alot more favourable for the Bunnies. The big plus is the form of GI (Greg Inglis). He has just played out of this world the past few weeks and if Souths get the ball to him as much as possible, then look out. And also he’ll be really fired given he is playing his first finals game against his former club, where his greatness began.
Tip: The Melbourne/Melbourne half time/full time double at $2.25 looks good enough.
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Elimination final 1
North Queensland (5) v Brisbane (8) at 7.45pm, Dairy Farmers Stadium, Townsville
This, on paper, appears to be a no-brainer…Cowboys win and win comfortably. They have won their last four, including a dominant win against Cronulla last weekend. Plus any side that has the lethal combination of Thurston and Bowen will prove hard to beat in any game, especially if the platform is layed down well with the likes of Tamou, Scott and Cooper.
Two-three months ago I declared Brisbane the team to beat…That has changed. They have been quite awful recently compared to their early season form. However, they haven’t played too bad over the past month without being spectacular. Corey Norman needs to stand up here if he wants to remain in the first grade team foe 2013. The advantage the Broncos have is that they have had eight days to prepare for this, while the Cowboys have had six.
Tip: Over 38.5 points in the match looks nice. Cowboys have plenty of flare in attack while the Broncos defence has been shaky at times. If Thurston times his moments right, they can put a number on their Queensland counterparts.
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Elimination Final 2
Canberra (6) v Cronulla (7) at 4pm, Canberra Stadium, Canberra
This is the hardest game to pick a winner. The golden rule with Rugby League betting is that Canberra should never be backed when they are under $2. They should have lost last week against the Warriors, but the kiwis were just nothing short of disgraceful after handing up a 22-6 halftime lead and letting in 36 unanswered points in the second half. The Warriors made Canberra look good, so treat them carefully. Josh Dugan returns from a knee injury and the Raiders will hope he is 100% because if he fires, then Canberra will be hard to beat.
The Sharks were the real surprise packet earlier in the season but have only won two of their past eight. They should have beat Melbourne a couple of Monday nights back, then last Sunday they were very poor against a Cowboys team who appeared as if they were playing a muck around game at training. The boys from the shire would want to improve big time, but Todd Carney against the club that sacked him will be a major advantage.
Tip: Sharks try to be the first points scored at $2.40. As I said, very tough game to have a bet on with confidence.
