Cox Plate day 2012 tips and race previews

It is regarded as the best two minutes in sport and on Saturday, another great horse will etch their name onto the honour roll of the best race in Australia, the Sportingbet Cox Plate (2040m). Horses such as Pharlap, Tulloch, Tobin Bronze, Kingston Town, Super Impose, Sunline, Makybe Diva…we could go on and on about the quality of horse that has taken out the prize. But let’s stick to the 2012 edition.

Boom three year old Pierro holds favourtism at $4 ahead of Green Moon at $4.80. Kiwi superstar Ocean Park is not far away at $5.50 after winning all three starts in impressive fashion, all of which were high class group one races. Proisir is at $9 after he worked superbly around the Valley circuit last week and looms as the x factor, while All Too Hard and More Joyous are hot on the heels. It shapes up to be a beauty yet again.

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Race One: Inglis Banner Stakes 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: In race where the dartboard is required, I will put Diva Dee on top. On debut for Anthony Cummings. Has trialled well leading up to this at Warwick Farm, where she finished second in smart time. Has a bad draw, but looks to have some talent.
Don’t Back Me: Impossible to say.
Big Danger: Ryker is another Sydney youngster that is on debut after trialling well at Randwick. Didn’t win by a big space, nor was the time flash, but Gai knows how to get a juvenile ready.
Roughie: Pinova is on debut for Team Hawkes and any two year old trained by them should always be respected, especially on debut.

Pierro has been rated on top by Sports News tipster Adam Page

Race Two: City Jeep Handicap 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: I am tipping Newcastle to strike here thanks to I Get Around. This speed machine has won four of his six career starts, with an added minor placing to that tally. Was last seen during the Winter where he won at Warwick Farm. He was tipped out afterwards. Has trialled twice for this first up run and both have been outstanding. Very hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Kulgrinda worked home well first up, but I thought she was very plain at Cranbourne in a very weak sprint race. On that run, I couldn’t have her as a selection.
Big Danger: Snitzem, if he jumps, will cart I Get Around to the fence. He didn’t jump in the Schillaci and hence, lost all chance. He is a smart galloper when he has his manners in tact and if he does have them, he’ll be a tough nut to crack.
Roughie:Freereturn saves his best for the Valley. Wasn’t suited last week behind Howmuchdoyouloveme and can dramatically improve here at odds.

Race Three: Drummond Golf Handicap 2040m Form Guide
Back Me: Based on the way she won the Cranbourne Cup, it is very hard seeing Midnight Martini getting beat. She gave her rivals there a caning thanks to a 12/10 ride from Rodd. Not taking on much at all and she should be beating these.
Don’t Back Me: Anything to beat the top tip. She looks the banker of the afternoon.
Big Danger: Extra Zero made a long, searching run in the David Jones Cup last week and peaked on the run at the 100m. So that tells me he’ll be cherry ripe for this and when you consider his record, he isn’t badly weighted at all. The quinella horse.
Roughie: Texan Warney won his third Horsham Cup last Sunday after doing a stack of work early on. There is still plenty of life in those legs of his and it wouldn’t shock me if he ran top four.

Race Four: Telstra Phonewords Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value here in Essay Raider. Bolted in on debut before doing some work in front last start yet he didn’t shirk the task and kept on kicking for a very game second. I like him alot. He should go forward and be hard to gun down provided he doesn’t cop a stack of pressure.
Don’t Back Me: Cavalry Rose is a dual acceptor for both meetings at the Valley. Either way, she’ll struggle because the ride and that only got her home at Caulfield. Just a bit overrated I feel.
Big Danger: Chosen Moment went enormous here first up. He sat a mile off a hot speed before getting going, pulling wide and absolutely flashing hard late to just miss. He has come back in great order and if he can take advantage of the good barrier, he’ll be hard to beat.
Roughie: Just got the feeling that Maury may run a race here. Hasn’t been too bad in some good races recently and this is the easiest race he has contested since winning at Flemington back in April.

Race Five: Mitchelton Wines Vase 2040m Form Guide
Back Me: It’s A Dundeel…enough said.
Don’t Back Me: Next.
Big Danger: Super Cool had no luck last start at Caulfield because the pace was so slow in front, that he had no hope from where he was. He got going near the fence and charged late. Won’t beat the kiwi superstar, but he’ll run well.
Roughie: Nisos probably lacks the maturity to match it with the big guns, but he is a very nice horse for the future. He was very good at Morphettville and is looking for this distance and beyond.

Race Six: Drake International Moonee Valley Cup 2500m Form Guide
Back Me: In a race that has no depth at all, I will go with Precedence. Cracking first up run before backing it up with a win here. Then got too far back and was forced very wide in the JRA Cup before again having no luck in the Herbet Power. He does appear to be ticking along beautifully and is a past winner of this race. He goes on top.
Don’t Back Me: Ibicenco is a false favourite here I feel. He has absolutely no form at all from overseas and looks shocking unders, despite being trained by Luca Cumani.
Big Danger: Ironstein was ridden a treat by Avdulla in the Herbet Power before being swallowed late for fourth. He is also ticking along nicely and if ridden a touch more quiet and with something to chase, he could win here without shocking.
Roughie: Reuben Percival did a bit too much work in the Herbet Power and weakened late. He could get a soft lead here and with that, he’ll be hard to run down at good odds considering he was third in the Metropolitan two starts back.

Race Seven: Schweppes Crystal Mile 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: In in in on Rangirangdoo. First two runs were huge this time, then was caught off the track in the Epsom and never got into the hunt. He is drawn well, handles the track, has class and Bowman rides. Very confident he’ll win.
Don’t Back Me: I like Ambidexter, but he really should have won the Epsom, but he turned it up and didn’t want to go past Fat Al. That is a major concern with me.
Big Danger: The obvious threats are Solzhenitsyn and Silent Achiever. The former won the Toorak last start, aided by a great ride from Corey Brown. Don’t think Moonee Valley is his track, but he’ll run very well as he heads towards the Emirates. The kiwi mare Silent Achiever worked home nicely first up after a long campaign during the Summer/Autumn. Is she fit enough to win this? Maybe, but I just want to see her go around. I still think she is a threat.
Roughie: Tokugawa grinded home in the Toorak after seemingly having the right run during the race. Back to Moonee Valley is a big tick in his favour and he could be the knockout.

Race Eight: Sportingbet Cox Plate 2040m Form Guide
Back Me: One of the best, if not the best, Cox Plate field we have seen. The great wfa gallopers taking on the boom three year olds. It is set up to be a mouth watering battle. Just gotta stick with Pierro. He is the one on the rise and at the weight scales, he looks so well suited. He was potted after his failure in the Guineas, but look closely at his run and you’ll see he had no right to finish as close as he did. The 2040m looks perfect, he handles the track superbly and there isn’t much tactical gate speed drawn around him, so Brown could easily press forward and get over quite comfortably. I have him on top, but just.
Don’t Back Me: I am not going to knock All Too Hard. He was ridden the best in the Guineas and duly won. But the race was set up for him a long way out. He’ll get conditions to suit again, but I can’t see him winning a Cox Plate. He is not an Octagonal or So You Think.
Big Danger: Any horse to sit three wide no cover and win a group one is gifted and that’s exactly what Green Moon did in the Turnbull. He was just outstanding in winning. He is certainly a threat, but does he have enough zip to match it with these considering his main goal is the Melbourne Cup? Either way, he’ll be right in the finish and the kiwi Ocean Park has done nothing wrong this prep. Booming win to take out the Windsor Park at Hastings, then showed an electrifying turn of foot to win the Underwood, before being ridden confidently and getting the job done to win the Caulfield Stakes. If he gets a drag into the race and is within striking distance, he can certainly win.
Roughie: Not expecting him to win, but keep an eye on Ethiopia. Behind Green Moon, he was the run of the race in the Turnbull. He was going absolutely nowhere at the 600m yet picked up the bit and charged late. Needs to run well here in order to go towards the Melbourne Cup and I think he will definitely run top six, maybe even top four.

Race Nine: Trojan Hands Tools Tesio Stakes 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: A narrow defeat in the Toorak yet Spirit Song is $3.60? Oh please, the mare should be odds on! She is going to be so hard to beat if she has held her form. She carries weight very well and has drawn nice, plus Brad Rawiller knows her very well.
Don’t Back Me: In order for Star Of Giselle to win, she needs to dictate. It may happen again, but she takes on some quality mares and she doesn’t deserve to be favourite.
Big Danger: Skyerush took an eternity to get going in the Angst, but once she did, she really savaged the line. She’ll be suited at 2000m but she has class on her side and Bowman is back on board. Hard to beat if she gets some speed up front.
Roughie: Pretty Pins was the run of the race at Caulfield in the event that Star Of Giselle won. She had no right to flash home given the pace was so slow, but she did. She is flying at the moment and looks to be a good exotic player.

 

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