The 70th edition of the ‘Race to the Sun’ will stimulate early season interest for cycling fans as the eighteen UCI WorldTour ProTeams line-up alongside the four Wildcard entries, for the March 4th start just outside Paris. The 2012 Paris-Nice stage race will begin and conclude with a short-distance individual time-trial, comprising eight stages over eight days, and covering some 1,150 kms. It is the first WorldTour event of the season in Europe, one of the first primary prizes of the season, and any one of the twenty-two competing teams would love to put the illustrious title in their trophy cabinet.
A lot has been said of race organiser Christian Prudhomme’s decision to reintroduce the 9.6 km Nice to Col d’Eze route for the final stage, with he himself saying; “This route should guarantee suspense right to the end.” Monsieur Prudhomme, also holding the significant general director position at Le Tour de France, seems to have somehow overlooked the fact that he has set the race up for a team containing expert time-trialists. Indeed, it is evident to me that the race can be controlled and ultimately won by such a team, and to me this team is likely to be Omega Pharma-Quickstep (OPQ) out of Belgium.
OPQ is already exhibiting ominous form and fine team dynamics (an important factor in stage races where team strategy is key) as evident in Levi Leipheimer’s words after winning the 6th Tour de San Luis recently; “I’m really happy, it was a super fantastic experience to be a part of this team in this enterprise,” he said. “We worked well together and we all made sacrifices for one another; this is why we were successful. On this team no one balks when they’re asked to do a job.” Whilst Tony Martin was not on the start line for the Argentinian Tour, suggesting perhaps that he is instead being kept fresh for this prestigious race, it is nevertheless evident that his team is strong early in the season and will be willing to go on with their winning ways in France. Moreover, for OPQ, Tom Boonen road the flat roads in the Middle East the best in early February, winning the Tour of Qatar for the fourth time in his career, after he won the first stage (the first of his two victories) in a bunch sprint, whilst his team-mate Gert Steegmans finished 4th on GC, showing valiant tough-as-nails form when working hard to set-up Boonen’s fourth stage victory. In the second stage Team Time-trial, OPQ finished second over the 11.3 kms ‘out and back “Merckx-style” time trial course’ whilst Radioshack-Nissan (RNT) managed only sixth place, and Sky claimed third. Meanwhile; on the Spanish island of Mallorca, OPQ were celebrating when Andy Fenn won the two flat stages of the four, one-day races of Challenge Ciclista a Mallorca – being held there at the same time the Tour of Qatar was taking place.
However, instead of unloading a bunch of facts – compiled from observing the month of February racing – on the assiduous reader, it may be far more desirable to state that coming out of the Arabian Peninsula and Portugal, respectively, and heading to the start of the northern classics season, OPQ are the dominant force with Sky doing quite well, also. Indeed, Sky managed to sandwich the defending winner, T. Martin, by finishing first and third in the Volta ao Algarve. Incidentally, T. Martin finished with the same winning time as Wiggins in the final (stage five) individual time-trial over some 25 kms, but noted to have made a couple of mistakes. Asked what his condition was like after the conclusion, and where his focus will be now be, he replied, “The Volta ao Algarve gave me a good race rhythm. I’m improving day by day. My next goal will be Paris-Nice. Last year it was an unforgettable race for me. I hope this year will be the same.” Since the Volta ao Algarve is regarded as suitable preparation for stage races later on in the season, it confirmed that T. Martin was laying the foundation for another win in an appropriate or properly recognised way by riding in that race. But the thing worth noting here also, and in so doing making a conclusion to February racing – is that it’s still relatively cold in Europe and some of the riders coming from up to 30 degree celsius temperature conditions in the Tour of Oman, have a higher – anecdotal – chance of getting sick than those that remained in Europe. Certainly, the prevailing wisdom is to remain on the European continent during this period, by becoming slowly accustomed to the cold conditions, which don’t require freak weather systems to sweep down on the riders and cause chills to enter their all-important lungs.
It may be suggested in accordance with established or accepted patterns for such things as internal team dynamics, that given the absence of the longer time-trial distance at the “bookends” – in which Tony Martin is an expert in as reigning World Time-Trial Champion, that it may be the case that he will yield his aspiration for back-to-back titles in favour of the proven in-form credentials of his team-mates Levi Leipheimer or Tom Boonen, the latter, who more recently rode an impressive race at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad to finish second, covering and making nearly every move over the ten climbs and nine pave sections of East Flanders. However, that such potential options exist for this team only strengthens their likelihood of winning with the rider feeling best, in my view; leaving the only one obvious question to be answered: Which other team can control the race like them? Firstly though, it should be acknowledged that the parcours can also be regarded as an “attacking course” with various opportunities for breakaway specialists to succeed, especially for the three middle stages, into and along, the ‘Massif Central’ – and where for instance an explosive climber can gain time over the peloton by punching up the steep 3km climb to the stage 5 finish in Mende. Nevertheless, I view the time-trials as the key to ultimate race success and both RadioShack-Nissan (RNT) and Sky can claim to match OPQ in this regard.
This race looks like a series of training rides for RNT, judging by their roster choices. The Schleck brothers will want to put some competitive kilometres into their legs this early in the season without the intense pressure which comes with the expectations of a GC win, and not having Andreas Kloden, who finished second here last year and on class would figure somewhere in Kansas again, and also not having Tiago Machado and Jakob Fuglsang, are all clear signs that the team’s focus is still elsewhere and they’ll be more than satisfied with a stage win and some breakaway coverage. A much better proposition is Sky, whom have both Bradley Wiggins and Richie Porte. I question the former rider’s mental desire to win, and since I don’t recognize in him the mongrel hunger to win at any cost, I include him only as a mention should he find himself feeling the best in the team and explicit orders are laid down for him to win. Wiggins finished in third place overall last year. There may also be some instability within the team between him and Froome, and since Froome is also in the race it’ll be interesting to look for more clues on how that particular dynamic stands. I actually see Porte as Tony Martin’s main danger in the race. He sent a formidable warning shot across Martin’s bow in Portugal, and Mr. Dave Brailsford, Sky’s team principal, may just decide to put Wiggins and Froome into service for Porte, who will have nowhere to hide come the final day if he’s in with a show, but who stands out as an excellent each-way prospect, with a high to very-high chance of finishing on the podium.
The last rider to do the Paris-Nice repeat is Alexandre Vinokourov, who went back-to-back in 2002-03, and whilst he has a somewhat different physique to T. Martin, he is nevertheless an accomplished time-trialist, having finished 3rd both times at the Worlds in the discipline, in 2004 and 2006.
In conclusion; it can be fraught with difficulty to begin a preview with the name of the rider defending the race in the forefront of one’s thoughts – as one can begin to search for and select individual facts over studying the entire landscape from an appropriate distance. However, back-to-back titles don’t come along in every race, and given the fact that both Leipheimer and Boonen have already won so early in the season, it stands to reason that with all things being equal, OPQ will work for Tony Martin should he give them the nod that he is feeling fit and good for the win in Nice. Tony “Panzerwagen” Martin is in fine form to defend his title, and thus is the likely winner in my view, but the inclusion of a good number of the big names in cycling should make for another entertaining (and yes nice) race to begin the 2012 UCI WorldTour on the roads of the European continent.
