The Milan-San Remo stage race on Italian soil literally means “spring” or “Primavera”. At 298kms it is the longest race on the UCI WorldTour calendar, and looking over the history of results it is easy to observe that sprinters are suited by the race, hence it being regarded as the “Sprinter’s Classic”. Expecting; partly cloudy, cool conditions, a variable calm wind, humidity not a factor – all excellent factors for riding a bicycle competitively.
Images courtesy of: www.gazzetta.it/grandeciclismo/milanosanremo/
Mark Cavendish 3: A previous winner in 2009, he has specifically targeted this race this year, and is an in-form rider, having won four times this season already, the latest when sprinting home in the 2nd stage Tirreno-Adriatico over 230kms. He also won the 195km Belgium classic – Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne before that, impressively. 52nd place finish last year. Should figure in a sprinter’s finish scenario, however there is more value to be found elsewhere. Worth the risk.
Peter Sagan 6: Won the longest 4th stage of the Tirreno-Adriatico, however it’s a stage which presents as a form indicator for Liege-Bastogne-Liege and not SanRemo as it’s regarded as a mid-mountain stage. Nevertheless, a solid win as 2nd and 3rd places were held by the third-place-getter (Kreuziger) and winner (Nibali) of the Two Seas Race overall, respectively. Should not be discounted. Will go close.
Fabian Cancellara 6: A previous winner in 2008, and second last year, he is a in-form rider after having already won on the white, dusty roads of Tuscany at the start of the month in the Strade Bianche, a classic over 190km. In the Tirreno-Adriatico he won the last stage, the individual – short distance – time-trial. He is the standout rider with an excellent WIN chance, and should be installed as favourite. Best bet.
Matt Goss 11: Last year’s winner, he will be out to repeat the result. Withdrawn from Tirreno-Adriatico to be rested for this race. Expect a big showing from one of the main contenders, but a big ask to defend such a tough race. The last rider to have done so was Erik Zabel in 2000-01, after having gone back-to-back in 1997-98, also. EACH-WAY prospects best.
Edvald Boasson Hagen 14: Looked good in winning the 2nd stage at Volta ao Algarve, but then suffered a cold prior to Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, and whilst he has been working diligently for Cavendish as lead-out man, the fact that he was withdrawn from Tirreno-Adriatico suggests he needed the rest. 30th last year. Cannot see him winning at this stage. Unlikely to finish on the podium. Ignore.
Philippe Gilbert 14: 3rd last year. Has not impressed so far this season and abandoned Tirreno-Adriatico with an illness. Cannot see him winning at this stage. One of the best riders most suited to this type of race, however he’s not fancied at this stage. Ignore.
Andre Greipel 14: Was firing at the start of the season with three stage wins in the Tour Down Under, then in the Tour of Oman had two stage wins and a second place. Finished in 10th place at Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne. 33rd here last year. No surprise if he were to improve on that result, significantly.
Oscar Freire 14: Won this race in 2004, 2007, and 2010. Showed good dash to finish 2nd to Cavendish at 2nd stage Tirreno-Adriatico. Big danger with good EACH-WAY prospects. Consider closely.
Tom Boonen 14: Showing good form so far this season. Finished 2nd at the 200km Belgian classic, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. Also got a stage win at Paris-Nice over the 185km second stage. 28th here last year. Expect a bold showing from this dangerous candidate.
Alessandro Petacchi 22: Under the odds given he has been off the radar so far this season. 12th last year. Preparation has been disrupted due to breathing difficulties. Take on trust.
Heinrich Haussler 25: 18th here last year, and 4th at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, earlier this season. Talented rider with some lingering question marks, however his training has been described as on par with his top 2009 strength and performance, when he finished 2nd at this race, for instance. Take on trust.
Daniel Oss 25: Overrated Italian rider who finished 23rd here in 2010. Under the odds. Ignore.
Tyler Farrar 28: Workmanlike job to finish 2nd overall in the Tour of Qatar last month, before following it up with a solid 18th at Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne. Good value. Would not surprise with an improvement on his 46th place finish here last year. Worthy of close consideration.
Vincenzo Nibali 33: The wily Italian is in top form, having won the Tirreno-Adriatico on GC with real fight, and against some good riders. He wants desperately to win this prestigious race on home soil and in front of adoring crowds, after finishing 8th here last year. Is motivated, and presents as excellent EACH-WAY value, who will likely figure in the important moves and find himself amongst the selective groups. Will give a good sight for a long way. Must be included amongst the chances.
Juan Jose Haedo 33: The Argentian sprinter has the following nickname: “The Slowmotion Sprinter”. Overlook here.
Daniele Bennati 33: 11th place finish in the Strade Bianche earlier, and 13th here last year, he presents as an Italian sprinter who deserves close consideration for an honest top-10 finish.
Greg Van Avermaet 33: 9th place finish here last year, and would have been one of the fancied riders for a top-10 finish, however he abandoned Tirreno-Adriatico with a heel injury. Unlikely to figure in the top-25 riders over the line now, if he even starts. Discount or consider as a potential scratching, or race abandonement.
Jose Joaquin Rojas 33: Spanish sprinter unlikely to threaten the fancied riders for the win. 14th place finish last year. Ignore this time around.
Giovanni Visconti 40: 82nd place finish here last year. Earlier in the season, he has been noticeable with a 14th at Strade Bianche, and a handy 7th at Clasica de Almeria, a one day classic in Spain over 185kms. Worthy of consideration.
Matti Breschel 40: Not setting the roads of Europe alight and won’t do so here. Ignore.
Michael Matthews 50: Talented young rider from Australia. Won the Clasica de Almeria earlier, however he’s new here, distance is a query, and it’s unlikely he’ll even start after crashing in Tirreno-Adriatico. Late scratching – confirmed.
Michele Scarponi 50: 6th place finish last year. Showed good form in the Tirreno-Adriatico to finish in 7th position overall. Is usually strong late in a long race, so he will attack a select group if given the opportunity. Always a big danger. Respect.
Oscar Gatto 50: 3rd place finish at Strade Bianche suggests the Italian is one to consider in calculations here, however this race with this field is a class above his best, and he will struggle to finish in the top-50. Ignore.
Marc Renshaw 50: 113th here last year. Take on trust.
Gerald Ciolek 50: German sprinter who got a stage win at the Volta ao Algarve, earlier. Odds suggest they are way under. Unlikely to finish in the top-15. Leave out of calculations.
Marcel Kittel 50: Talented young German sprinter with two stage wins at the Tour of Oman. Would surprise with a top-50 finish here, however.
Alejandro Valverde 66 Showing early season form with a stage win and a 3rd place position finish in Paris-Nice, after a stage win and 2nd overall in the Tour Down Under. Worthy of close consideration, but others have more appeal. Later.
Christopher Sutton 66: He’s a sprinter from Down Under and this is a sprinter’s race. A top-10 result would be a good result for him, but unlikely on account of his lack of experience.
Alessandro Ballan 66: An Italian riding in front of home crowds who finished 4th here last year and 4th in the Strade Bianche earlier this season. Way over the odds and should be included in calculations on an EACH-WAY basis as a likely contender for a podium finish. Top chance.
Lars Boom 100: Bar-room-brawler-type rider who should be suited by such a race, however he has never performed well over such a distance and whilst I’m a fan of his Dutch cyclo-cross background and style of riding, it’s unlikely he’ll surprise with a top-25 finish.
Johan Van Summeren 100: Whilst described as an “all-rounder” he has always struck me as a breakaway-style-pirate/lionheart. 123rd last year can be overlooked by his 10th place finish in the Strade Bianche earlier this month. Not a prolific winner, but experienced, his major career wins include last year’s Paris?Roubaix one-day classic. Good rough chance on an EACH-WAY basis. Value.
Simon Gerrans 100: Won the Tour Down Under in January, and could surprise with a bold top-10 showing. Worth considering at such odds for a podium result.
My selections:
1st.) Fabian Cancellara
2nd.) Oscar Freire
3rd.) Alessandro Ballan
Roughie:) Johan Van Summeren
