There is one Listed race in Melbourne but Sydney has eight Black Type events, including two Group One races – the Coolmore Classic and the Ranvet Stakes.
It is the Ranvet Stakes, a weight-for-age race over 2,000 metres featuring eight legitimate contenders and one mare, Gondokoro, who would not win if her gate opened 30 seconds before the others did, about which we have decided to share our first thoughts. Bookies are quite correct to quote Gondokoro at triple-digit odds and one can only hope that her presence does not impact negatively upon the outcome.
There is little separating Fiorente and It’s A Dundeel at the top of most Ranvet Stakes markets but we are firmly in the Melbourne Cup winner’s camp for this race because it sets up beautifully for him. We are expecting Fiorente’s stablemate, Carlton House, to ensure that the event is run at a strong gallop, with Sertorius keeping the English Derby bronze medallist company until the field gets busy in the straight. The tempo should be sufficient for Fiorente, who pulled clear in the final 50m of last year’s edition of the 3,200m race that stops a nation, to run over the top of his rivals at the business end of proceedings. Fiorente is third up, rock-hard fit and coming off what was, arguably, the highest rating performance of his career last time out.
It’s A Dundeel is a quality horse but we do not like his map – barrier one means that there is a decent chance that he will get stuck in traffic because of his pattern – and his preparation this spring. He is second up over 2,000m having made his return over 1,600m with the plan being for his third appearance to be over 2,400m. There is no way that Murray Baker can have him as forward as Gai Waterhouse has Fiorente and, for that matter, Carlton House. Sheer class will take It’s A Dundeel a long way in most races but we prefer the Waterhouse inmates at the Ranvet Stakes odds.
Chris Waller is set to saddle three Ranvet Stakes runners. It is a terrible cliche but Foreteller really does not win out of turn, Hawkspur has not recorded anything like the rating required to win this race in any of his last five starts and Moriarty has yet to break his Group One duck. That leaves Sertorius, who did not back up his career-best effort in the Futurity Stakes when contesting the Blamey Stakes, New Zealand raider Silent Achiever, who has won only one of her 12 races in Australia and that was a Group Two handicap at Moonee Valley, and the outclassed Gondokoro.
Therefore, 24 hours before the Ranvet Stakes on the first day of the Sydney Carnival and we are keen on Fiorente. We would not be surprised if he jumped from the gates as a hot favourite so, if you agree with our early assessment, think about taking a price. There is rain forecast for Sydney but the Bureau of Meteorology’s prediction is for insufficient rain to turn Rosehill into a bog. We expect a dead track.
While Fiorente is our early Ranvet Stakes top pick
Article written by Brystar at RacingFans.com.au
