One of the most talked-about questions in Australian sport is about to be answered.
The Australian swimming championships beginning next week in Adelaide signal the moment of reckoning for Ian Thorpe and his quest to qualify for the London Olympics after five long years out of the pool.
Since Thorpe announced his comeback more than a year ago, excitment, mystery and plenty of doubts have surrounded the 29-year-old’s ability to reclaim some of the form that made him Australia’s most successful Olympian with five gold medals.
A string of less-than-impressive performances since his competitive return in Singapore in November has even Thorpe admitting he may not have given himself enough time and the most likely outcome in Adelaide is failure.
But national head coach Leigh Nugent is not convinced and, like many, clinging to hope the big moment will bring out some of that old Thorpe magic.
“I think with someone like Ian, the history he’s got and knowing his competitive capabilities, you could never write him out of the equation,” Nugent told AAP.
“I’ve been around a long time and I’ve had a lot to do with Ian and with swimming at this level for almost two-and-a-half decades and with him, you’ve got to expect for him to pull something out of the bag.
“He just has that sort of ability.”
Thorpe arrived back in Australia on Monday and Nugent said the swimmer was “walking tall” and ready to be competitive at the SA Aquatic and Leisure Centre.
His best chance to qualify for the Olympic team is in the 200m freestyle, starting on Friday, where he will need to finish in the top six to be considered as a 4x200m relay swimmer.
Even that, though, will be big ask based on what Thorpe has produced in competition in the last four months.
His best 200m time since returning, one minute 50.79 seconds at January’s Victorian championships, would have missed out on the final and finished 12th at last year’s national titles.
The 100m freestyle, starting on Sunday week, looks even more daunting with Australia’s sprint stocks recently replenished by the likes of world champion James Magnussen, Matt Targett, Matt Abood, James Roberts and Cameron McEvoy.
Whatever happens, Nugent is hopeful Thorpe’s giant presence will not overshadow a meet he predicts will feature some sharp swimming across the Dolphins’ squad.
Undisputed headliner – after Thorpe – is 20-year-old Magnussen, who appears to be on an unstoppable charge towards gold in London.
The Port Macquarie swimmer has made no secret of his desire to break Brazilian Cesar Cielo’s supersuit world record of 46.91 seconds and Nugent believes he can close in on the mark in Adelaide.
Magnussen clocked 47.49, the fastest swim ever in a textile suit, in leading Australia to 4x100m freestyle gold at last year’s world championships in Shanghai before taking the individual crown.
“He’ll be trying to make a statement,” Nugent said.
“He’s capable of swimming faster here than he did in Shanghai. Whether he does it here or not remains to be seen.”
While the men’s 100m final on Monday shapes up as the race of the meet, Nugent is equally excited by a women’s sprint field including reigning champion Alicia Coutts, Cate Campbell, Yolane Kukla and comeback swimmers Melanie Schlanger and Libby Trickett.
The coach said the strength in the field also bode well for the women’s relays in London.
Coutts, spearhead of the women’s team in recent years, has managed to keep a low profile in the lead-up to trials but again shapes as a potential star of the meet if she continues her stunning improvement since early 2010.
Her battle with Emily Seebohm and Stephanie Rice in the women’s 200m individual medley promises to be another highlight.
Defending 200IM and 400IM Olympic champion Rice must overcome her troublesome shoulder, having admitted arthroscopic surgery in December failed to provide relief from pain.
But, like Thorpe and a handful of under-pressure senior squad members like Leisel Jones, Brenton Rickard and Eamon Sullivan, Nugent is expecting experience and a proven ability on the big stage to count for plenty.
“She looks to perform in these big events,” Nugent said of Rice.
“A lot of our seasoned athletes, that’s what they respond best too. The higher the pressure the better they perform.”
Distance swimmer Kylie Palmer and backstroker Belinda Hocking are among those expected to post world-class times in their events, while much interest will surround controversial Nick D’Arcy’s attempt to reach his first Olympics and veteran Michael Klim’s comeback bid.
