Zouki Western Health Cup 2013 day Tips – Flemington racecourse

Flemington will host its first race meeting since the Melbourne Cup Carnival this Saturday. The track has had some renovations done post carnival, so it’ll be interesting to see how it plays.

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Race One: Leadwest Plate 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: The market is the best guide in these early two year old races, and the smart money has come for Chivalry for Mark Kavanagh, who has been crunched from $4.50 into even money. He obviously must have shown something in work, so happy to jump on the bandwagon.
Big Danger: For Lulu is a well bred type for David Hayes, being by Fastnet Rock out of Cats Whisker, a former handy mare for Mark Kavanagh. She should have had experience down the straight, and that is an advantage.
Roughie: Notonyourlife ran well in the clockwise two year old race on Ballarat Cup Day, running home well from well back. She has the race experience, and like the other two, would have had plenty of looks at the course.

$250 Chivalry Free Bet

Race Two: Nowicki Carbone Handicap (70) 1410m Form Guide

Back Me: Cannot believe they offered $15 for Sunset In Venice, and rightly so, she has been crunched into $5.50. Was a very good debut winner at Mornington, then was excellent in defeat at Sale when second to Spirit Of Soul, in a race dominated in front by that particular mare. She meets Spirit Of Soul 4.5kg better at the weights, yet their prices are the same, which is quite amazing.
Big Danger: First Bloom was a surprising but impressive first up winner on Ballarat Cup Day. She looked quite big in condition, so whatever she done there, she was only going to improve on, so the fact she won tells me she has come back really well. Goes up a couple of kilos, but doesn’t strike an overly strong race.
Roughie: Hamam hasn’t done much this preparation, but admittedly she hasn’t been suited in both of those races. She gets a bigger track here, Rawiller takes the ride and he knows the mare well, plus she draws out, which looks ideal given she appears to be suited outside horses.

$250 Sunset In Venice Free Bet

Race Three: Lanec Services Handicap (84) 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: Very keen on the former Queensland sprinter General Jackson, who is now with Mick Price. Was racing very well at the Sunny Coast and earned himself a trip down south for a heat of the 955m series at the Valley, and aided by an Olly special, he was most impressive. He should ping the lids and be up on the speed here, and drawn on the right part of the track.
Big Danger: Jake Duffy produced a gem on Flamberge to win first up at Caulfield after being heavily backed late in betting. He should get a gun sit off General Jackson and prove a very tough nut to crack.
Roughie: Eight Bills ran well at the Valley on Cox Plate Dat when fourth to gun stablemate Canali. He has been freshened since, switched stables and is now trained on the track. It’ll be interesting to see how her performs.

$250 General Jackson Free Bet

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Race Four: Johnstaff Projects Handicap 1410m Form Guide

Back Me: Going for the one right down the bottom in Too Deadly, who earned another crack in town thanks to a stunning last to first win a couple of weeks back at Seymour. The manner in which he did, and the turn of foot, was the best bit. When trained by Kav, he didn’t run 1400m, but now with a new stable in Grant Craven, it looks perfect for him, and with a hot speed expected, he looks a great each-way bet.
Big Danger: We were all over The New Boy last start at Caulfield, but he turned it up (again) and plugged to the line for third behind Loot ‘N’ Run. Once again, he should get the dream sit off that horse on the speed, and is back on his home track. This is D-Day for him, otherwise he’ll be in the redbook.
Roughie: The chance of a dead/slow track certainly brings Loot ‘N’ Run into the mix. How he won last start at Caulfield still leaves me mindblown, but there is no reason why he can’t do it again. His three runs here have been okay, and in much tougher company. Again, he carries no weight and will bowl along in front with no pressure.

$250 Too Deadly Free Bet

Race Five: Dorevitch Pathology Handicap (90) 1720m Form Guide

Back Me: Sticking solid with Subiaso. Needed the run first up down the straight during Cup Week, then got a long way back at Cranbourne and made up a ton of ground late to finish fifth behind Chow Meow. He then ran last week over the mile at Caulfield and took forever to get going when fifth to Lord Durante. Gets to a bigger track, up in distance slightly, and only carries 51kg thanks to the claim. Happy to have him.
Big Danger: Minnie Downs looks the knockout runner here. She was excellent in three runs during the Spring Carnival, then didn’t quite run the 2000m out at Caulfield behind Electric Fusion, so back to 1700m and with Froggy back on board should see this mare be a major contender.
Roughie: One for exotics is Waterford Hill. Wasn’t suited first up on Kyneton Cup Day, then plugged to the line at Sale, but Olly did say the horse would be better over further, and that’s what happens for him here today, along with a good draw and on the limit. Good horse on his day, so chuck him in trifectas and first fours.

$250 Subiaso Free Bet

Race Six: Isis Handicap 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Looks a lovely race for former Perth galloper Morant, who has a few campaigns in Victoria but hasn’t really lived up to his promise he showed west. In saying that, he did trial brilliantly before being outclassed in a hot race here during Cup Week, then really attacked the line at Caulfield last start. Strikes a very thin race, and if he has held his form he’ll go very close.
Big Danger: Decircles was another well supported runner who was most disappointing at Caulfield. Yet again. the punters have backed him, but he definitely needs to step up now. Back on his home track, Bossy rides and maps well.
Roughie: Infinite Energy generally saves his best for Flemington, so the fact he ran so well first up at Caulfield gives me the confidence he’ll be a massive threat here. Drawn the right part of the track and the stable are overdue for another win.

$250 Morant Free Bet

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Race Seven: Zouki Western Health Cup 2000m Form Guide

Back Me: Looks a very thin race, so again we are going for value and have come up with Angola for Pat Carey, who was heavily backed last start at Kensington, but just couldn’t quite attack the line like normal under the 58kg. Back to Melbourne, tumbles 6kg in weight, and looks to be in a very winnable race if he has held his form.
Big Danger: Has there been one too many runs from Multilateral? He is racing so well at the moment. Boxed on really well at Caulfield for third, but wasn’t suited by a slow pace. The only query is whether he has had enough. If he hasn’t, he’ll go close.
Roughie: Whisper Downs returns to Flemington for the first time since his slashing fifth in the Bobbie Lewis behind subsequent Group 1 placegetter Speediness. He has done bugger all since apart from a nice third in the Kyneton Cup. The key is getting back to Flemington and a good gate. He is the knockout horse.

$250 Angola Free Bet

Race Eight: Western Health Handicap (78) 1410m Form Guide

Back Me: I liked Prince Of Penzance when the fields came out, but I like him more now that he has had good support in betting. He rose from a Stawell to a 2000m win here in the space of five runs, so he has loads of talent, and did look quite sharp in a recent barrier trial placing. Was worried he might need the run, but the confident betting move has quashed those fears.
Big Danger: Nautical probably doesn’t run a strong 1600m, but it was the case of being there in the perfect spot on the day last start where he got up to win over the distance in a close finish. He has been a little freshen up and comes back to 1400m, which looks perfect. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Nisos could the value runner for exotics. His run wasn’t too bad first up at Caulfield behind Loot ‘N’ Run in a much tougher race than this. He has run well here in the past, fitter, drawn well and appears good odds.