The Grand Final of the Autumn Carnival for the stayers and this year’s Sydney Cup, sees a field of eleven lining up with favourite Kelinni ($3.20) looking well placed after last week’s win the Listed JRA Plate (2000m). A further six runners are at a quote of $12 or better.
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1. MOURAYAN – J Bowman (2)
As expected, he was well accounted for first up in the G1 Futurity Stakes (1400m) and still needed the racing when, after leading early, folded late to run eighth in the Australian Cup behind Super Cool. Came to Randwick, where his record is very good, for the G2 Chairman’s Quality (2600m) and, as he always does, stuck on soundly for fourth behind Tremec. That was his first run for over a month, so expecting more improvement and generally saves his best for here.
2. NIWOT – K McEvoy (8)
Winner of this race last year but is rated a $17.00 chance to defend his title. He certainly looked on track when second up from a spell, finished hard under 60kg to run fourth behind Court Connection in the Listed Canberra Cup before, as expected, finding the WFA conditions of the G1 Ranvet Stakes beyond him Similarly in The BMW Stakes last start, he finished well behind Fiveandahalfstar. The drop back to Handicap conditions does help but he will need to lift.
3. JULIENAS – N Rawiller (10)
Impressive winner of the Listed Sky High Stakes (1900m) second up from a spell and carried that form to victory in the Listed Manion Cup (2400m), defeating Permit under 59kgs. All looked to be going swimmingly until his effort in the G2 Chairman’s Handicap (2600m) where as a 7/2 chance, he folded dramatically in the straight and ran a distant last. Has won a trial since but that is not what you want to see heading into a G1 race.
4. KELINNI – J Cassidy (7)
Put together a sensational campaign together last spring that culminated in him running fourth to Green Moon in the Melbourne Cup. Returned to racing and competed in the Apollo Stakes, Chipping Norton, Ranvet Stakes and The BMW all at WFA and improved with each run. It wasn’t surprising then to see him relish being back to Handicap conditions last start and claim the JRA Plate (2000m) under 60kgs. Drops three kilos on that run but probably still on the improve – a good combination.
5. MALUCKYDAY – D Dunn (1)
It will make for a good story if this 6yo Zabeel can break through for his first win since claiming the G3 Lexus Handicap in 2010 – that start prior to running second in the Melbourne Cup of that year behind Amercain! Judging by his recent efforts in the G1 Ranvet Stakes (third behind Foreteller) and The BMW (sixth behind Fiveandahalfstar, beaten 1 ½ lengths), he has to be considered one of the better chances here. Drawn perfectly in gate one to get every chance and Dunn won this race last year on Niwot.
6. BLOOD BROTHA – M Rodd (3)
He had 48 starts in New Zealand before connection decided to bring him across to Australia and after his effort in the G2 Chairman’s Quality (2600m), where he ran a head second to Tremec, they’d be wishing they had done so sooner. He has won two races over this trip back home, the G3 New Zealand Cup in November last year and the same race in 2011. Stays the same at the weights and think he’s too close to some of those above him in this regard.
7. NORSQUI – C Symons
Well travelled gelding in the past few months with starts in Victoria, Tasmania and Adelaide, where he won the G2 Adelaide Cup (3200m) over Waratone carrying 56kgs. Only start since then was at Flemington over 2000m, where he closed well to finish ninth of fourteen in an Open Handicap. Deserves his shot here given his Adelaide Cup win but think it’ll be much tougher for him here.
8. TREMEC – C Newitt (9)
A lightly raced Zabeel 4yo who has won four of his last five races including the G2 Chairman’s Quality (2600m) at his most recent start. He got a beautiful run on the leader’s back form a good draw last start and proved too strong. That was his first run in month so can expect some improvement again but will find it a little more difficult from gate nine.
9. ALIYANA TILDE – C Williams (4)
After a poor Spring campaign, Trainer Kerry Parker has this 4yo Snitzel mare ticking over nicely this time in as evident by her win in the G3 Epona Stakes (1900m) two starts back. She then jumped to the 2600m of the Chairman’s and loomed up to win before peaking on her run and finishing third behind Tremec (beaten 1 ¾ length). She will be better for that run of those coming out of the Chairman’s Quality, think she’s the one likely to go the closest.
10. COLISEO – P Robl (11)
Arena gelding who has been in solid form but unfortunately for connections, has no win to show for his efforts. He was beaten a pimple in the Canberra and Albury Cups, then was last and widest when fourth (beaten 2 lengths) in the Manion Cup (2400m) behind Julienas and just got too far back last start in the Chaiman’s Quality when seventh behind Tremec. Deserves to win a race but I don’t think this will be it.
11. MACEDONIAN – L Nolen
You have to go back twenty starts, to November 2010 to find this horse’s last win. Made a lot of ground to finish fifth (beaten 3 ¾ lengths) in the Adelaide Cup behind Norsqui under 55.5kgs. On that run and his recent record, find it hard to include him here.
OVERVIEW
Julienas will jump to the front with Mourayan handy and Tremec looking for a spot from his wide gate. Just don’t know what to make of Julienas’ last start and the safer option, is to leave him out. Sticking with Kelinni here who drops nicely in weight and whose overall record since coming to Australia from Europe, is fantastic. He’ll only need half a chance to make his presence felt here. Mourayan second pick for me. Needed the outing last start, gets a lovely cart behind the leader from gate two. He has a good record at this track and will also appreciate the handicap conditions. At $11.00, think he is very good each way value. Maluckyday has the form on the board and Aliyana Tilde, will be much better for her last start and is going well enough to run a good race at odds here.
