Flemington will host New Years Day racing in Melbourne with their traditional program highlighted by the Bagot Handicap (2800m) and the Standish Handicap (1200m).
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Race One: New Year Handicap (70) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Paddy’s Gem (Best Odds: $15.00) on top. She was a very impressive debut winner at Bendigo, spoiling the party of debutante Belle Couture, a close relation to Black Caviar, but Paddy’s Gem got heavily checked on the turn, lost all momentum and balance, but picked herself up to win on the line. Takes a pretty good filly to do that, so I’m surprised she is $13. Happy to have her each way.
Big Danger: Mokoro (Best Odds: $2.40) was a brilliant debut winner at Seymour, running fast time, then had no luck at all when a close third at Caulfield. She missed the kick, zipped up to be three wide on the speed from the 600m given the leaders crawled in front and was just outsprinted late. Gets in beautifully at the weights after the claim and is a deserved favourite.
Roughie: Pindan Pearl (Best Odds: $8.50) had some excellent form when last in work. Her last outing resulted in a placing behind Group 1 placegetter Gregers and stakes performer The Huntress. That form line reads very well for a race of this class.
$250 Paddy’s Gem Free Bet
Race Two: Riverside Handicap (84) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Gig (Best Odds: $8.00) hasn’t done much wrong this time in, in particular a couple of Saturdays back at Flemington where she worked home well when third to an in form mare in Sistine Demon. Rises a bit in weight, but drops in depth, and should get a lovely sit off the pace. Generally saves her best for Flemington so putting her on top.
Big Danger: Danestroem (Best Odds: $6.00) has put together three very impressive victories this time in, including last start at Caulfield, aided by a peach ride from Katelyn Mallyon, who retains the ride. Drawn awkwardly, and rises in weight, but is in a real purple patch at the moment and can’t be ignored.
Roughie: Miss Middleton (Best Odds: $7.00) loomed to beat Danestroem in the second of her three runs, but the on pace bias and fitness levels beat her over the last 100m. She would have come on from that outing, on her home track now and should be hard to beat despite the draw.
$250 Gig Free Bet
Race Three: Flemington 1840-2014 Handicap (84) 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Best each way bet for mine across Australia today in the shape of Fab Fevola (Best Odds: $9.50) . The horse had been struggling for form at the Valley, so the stable sent him to this track/distance a couple of weeks back and he was very good in defeat, setting a usual strong speed before going down late. Drops big time in depth hence the weight rise, but he is a proven weight carrier and has drawn the right part of the track.
Big Danger: Kaiser Sun (Best Odds: $4.00) resumed over this track/distance on the same day as Fab Fevola and led all the way to win however the overall time was much slower than that of Fab Fevola. In saying that, he has plenty of upside left and should get a lovely sit off Fab Fevola.
Roughie: Eight Bills (Best Odds: $9.50) ran third to Kaiser Sun and was taking off some good ground late in the race. Drawn near the inside is a slight concern, but he gets in nicely at the weights after the claim and is another who should have some upside.
$250 Fab Fevola Free Bet
Race Four: George Watson Handicap 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet on the card for me in Anlon (Best Odds: $3.00), who was a tragedy beaten here last start behind Free Of Doubt. He got absolutely flattened as soon as the gates opened and lost all chance. For him to pick up and hit the line better than anything was enormous. With normal luck, and to be saved for the final 250m by Yendall, he’ll take care of this bunch.
Big Danger: He’s Your Man (Best Odds: $4.60) is the real interesting runner here. Another of these imports on debut for Chris Waller, and has looked quite sharp in two barrier trial placings back in Sydney. He is the unknown factor in this race and betting moves should be monitored closely.
Roughie: Prince Pedro (Best Odds: $13.00) is a tough campaigner for Brett Cavanough who did all the work last start at Wagga, sitting three wide with no cover, yet found plenty in the straight to win. Rises in grade, but drops 5.5kg from that run and the stable has a good record when sending them to the city.
$250 Anlon Free Bet
Race Five: Bagot Handicap 2800m Form Guide
Back Me: The Mick Kent may have come across the key to Mcnulty (Best Odds: $9.00) get Newitt on board given his aggressiveness. Nothing against the other hoops who have been on his back, he has been ridden beautifully at his past couple, but he just doesn’t want to find the line. Froggy can get anything over the line with his strength, so that’s why we are putting him on top here in an even race.
Big Danger: Unchain My Heart (Best Odds: $4.20) is working up towards another win after closing off nicely behind Pelicano in the Werribee Cup. That was only her fourth run back, so she has fresh legs, and at this time of the year, that is an advantage. Remember, she did win this race last year impressively and she appears on track to do it again.
Roughie: Crafty Cruiser (Best Odds: $15.00) is a little beauty who always busts his gut for connections. He looked a bit unlucky in the Werribee Cup given he was looking for a run on the turn and got cut out. Given his racing pattern, getting stopped in his tracks is severely against him, so he is a must include in this.
$250 Mcnulty Free Bet
Race Six: Standish Handicap 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Provided he has pulled up well from his gritty win last week at Morphettville, then Essay Raider (Best Odds: $5.00) will go very close in this race. He did all the work in the run, sitting three and four wide with no cover in a race which had a hot tempo, so for him to fight on in the straight and draw away late tells me he deserves another crack in Melbourne.
Big Danger: Decircles (Best Odds: $5.00) was just about an official milk drinker after a string of handy runs without winning, but he put away a similar field convincingly last start under the guidance of Bossy who retains the ride. Should be out of trouble up on the pace and proving a tough nut to crack.
Roughie: If this race was 1400m, I’d be putting By The Way (Best Odds: $14.00) on top after his slashing third to Group 1 placegetter Longport on Stakes Day. 1200m and down the straight probably isn’t his go, but look for him to wind up hard late.
$250 Essay Raider Free Bet
Race Seven: Byron Moore Handicap 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Looks to be a two horse race between Index Linked (Best Odds: $3.20) and Electric Fusion. I’m leaning towards the former, because he had a point to prove to me last start and he changed my mind about him with a dominant win. The key to him might just be that he prefers racing in Melbourne. Whatever the case, he is the one to beat for me.
Big Danger: Electric Fusion (Best Odds: $2.30) put together a couple of ordinary runs, but has really turned the corner, winning his past two, including a five length romp over this track/distance. However, he had the dream run in the race and it was served on a platter. That won’t happen here, but he still should be a worthy threat.
Roughie: Angelology (Best Odds: $17.00) is flying at the moment for Patrick Payne. Really caught the eye with his second when first up at Caulfield, then probably should have finished a touch closer when second to Index Linked. Don’t think he can turn the tables, but can run a place.
$250 Index Linked Free Bet
Race Eight: Williamstown Handicap (78) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Once Edgewood (Best Odds: $6.00) puts it all together in his head, gee he is going to be a good horse who will be winning a stakes race. But for some reason, he just wants to miss the kick all the time and settle out the back. He really savaged the line late when fourth to Sistine Demon over this track/distance. That mare won at her next start as did the third horse so the form stands up well.
Big Danger: Longeron (Best Odds: $4.20) finished second in that race after having the nice sit just off the pace. Looked to lack a turn of foot, but once balanced up, he really got to the line strongly. Fitter, drops in weight, and has been well backed despite the wide barrier. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Didn’t mind the debut win of Hard As Nails (Best Odds: $13.00) at Kilmore. Sat last, peeled the widest, looked to get unbalanced half way down the straight, but picked herself up, lunged and won on the peg. The second horse is a smart up and comer, so don’t leave her out of calculations.
$250 Edgewood Free Bet
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 12
Leg Two: 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Leg Three: 4, 5
Leg Four: 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 13
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
