A bumper afternoon is anticipated from all concerned when Randwick conducts their traditional New Years Day program, with the two drawcards being the Carrington Stakes (1100m) and the Tatts Club Cup (2400m).
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Race One: Australian Turf Club Handicap 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Looks pretty straight forward here- Laidback Larry (Best Odds: $1.90) wins. Had trialled brilliantly prior to his dominant first up win over the 1550m at Canterbury, aided by a gun ride from Tim Clark. He rises to the Randwick mile now, fitter, drops 4kg and arguably meets a weaker field to the one he beat first up. I think $1.75 is pretty generous.
Big Danger: Piammi (Best Odds: $5.00) looks the only horse capable of beating the top tip. She did all the work at Warwick Farm, sitting wide all the way, yet drew away late and was powering through the line, indicating 1600m on a bigger track will be ideal.
Roughie: Stone Age (Best Odds: $41.00) got a long way back on Magic Millions Day at Wyong, near last on the turn, before weaving his way through late for an eye catching fifth. Won’t win, but outside the top two tips, it’s pretty thin, so he could sneak into the first four at odds.
$250 Laidback Larry Free Bet
Race Two: 2014 ATC Membership On Sale Maiden Plate 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for a bit of value here in Ship Harbour (Best Odds: $13.00) for Peter Snowden and Josh Parr. He raced too keenly last start over the 1550m at Canterbury and faded out of it late. Coming back to 1400m, dropping a bit in depth and the addition of blinkers for the first time could spark improvement.
Big Danger: Had Estonian Princess (Best Odds: $4.80) drawn a barrier, she’d be nearly odds on here, but due to the wide gate, she is at around the $4 mark. Her run in the Wyong Magic Millions for the three year olds was excellent given she was caught wide all the way yet only was beaten a length by Sweet Idea, a Golden Slipper placegetter, so that should hold up well for a Randwick maiden.
Roughie: Millars Crossing (Best Odds: $15.00) made his debut in a handy maiden event at Canterbury and worked to the line nicely late when finishing fourth, beaten just over two lengths. Bred to be a good one and the trials and first start indicate she is heading in the right path.
$250 Ship Harbour Free Bet
Race Three: Tab Rewards Handicap 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Another bunch of milk drinkers to do battle. I think getting to a bigger track will suit Son Of Ross (Best Odds: $7.50), like it did three back when he was successful at Hawkesbury. He has since run two okay races at Canterbury, but takes forever to wind up, so the long straight of Randwick and rising to 2000m will be perfect.
Big Danger: Mr Scary (Best Odds: $4.40) is a perfect name for this horse, because he can get quite scared of the finish line. 22 starts for 2 wins and nine placings back that up. He is honest, he’ll keep plugging on at the one pace, and he will be in the money. Is he a winner though? Well he gets his chance here.
Roughie: His Footprint (Best Odds: $9.50) was pretty good in defeat when third to the inform Tamariz at Canterbury over the 1900m. The second horse in that race, Ambivalent, races here also, and he meets that horse 5kg better off for a half length margin. Definite chance in an open race.
$250 Son Of Ross Free Bet
Race Four: Graeme Symo’s 50th Birthday Handicap 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet on the card in Pirandello (Best Odds: $3.90). He couldn’t have been more impressive first up at Gosford, then had to the donkey, sitting outside a hot speed before being gunned down late. If he can overcome the wide draw, perhaps get some cover and have something to chase, he’ll be awfully hard to hold out.
Big Danger: Atmospherical (Best Odds: $2.60) had been trialling superbly prior to her debut run at Kembla where the punters didn’t miss her, starting $1.70 and after sitting wide with no cover, she drew away late and won, running really fast time, just outside the course record. She looks classy and is the obvious threat.
Roughie: Oywotzy (Best Odds: $26.00) resumed in a class three against the older horses, carrying topweight, and looked the winner halfway down the straight, but fitness gave way late. I think she is capable of winning a city race, but she will bump into a couple of stakes class horses. Still, should run well.
$250 Pirandello Free Bet
Race Five: Carrington Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: If the early betting is any indication, then Dances On Stars (Best Odds: $4.00) will win this. Ran a couple of really good races during the Winter behind the likes of Academus and Mic Mac and did run Sizzling to a long neck. 1100m is probably a touch short of his best, but the betting tells me he is wound up to win first up.
Big Danger: Dee’N’Gee (Best Odds: $5.50) has had a couple of setbacks to return to the races, but has trialled a couple of times and has looked very sharp. Goes very well fresh, and at this track/distance. Draws to get a lovely sit off a hot speed, and appears to be fit enough to run a good race first up.
Roughie: The couple of tough runs in recent weeks should really make sure Zaratone (Best Odds: $7.00) runs a very strong 1100m. I thought he was quite game last week behind Limes, doing all the work in front, before being collared late, but was only beaten two lengths. Kathy is back on board, and that gives the horse such a huge advantage.
$250 Dances On Stars Free Bet
Race Six: Tatt’s Club Cup 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Destiny’s Kiss (Best Odds: $2.70) looks the one here. All four runs this time have been eye catching, especially his last two in the Villiers and Summer Cup, in particular the Summer Cup last week where he got too far back, but really rattled to the line late, suggesting that the 2400m will be right up his alley.
Big Danger: Travolta (Best Odds: $4.00) looks the threat based on how well he toughed it out when a narrow second in the Summer Cup. Only thing that beat him was the bob of the head. There are still question marks about him running 2400m, but he should get a very comfortable lead and prove to be hard to run down again.
Roughie: Wouldn’t be surprised if Poste Restante (Best Odds: $18.00) runs a bit of a race here at odds. He bolted in three back, then lost the rider soon after the start before running fourth and appeared to not handle carrying 59kg. Drops to the minimum now, and is out to 2400m, which looks ideal. Must for exotics.
$250 Destiny’s Kiss Free Bet
Race Seven: Tab.com.au Handicap (70) 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Again looking for some value and putting Xatel Ekwa (Best Odds: $21.00) on top. His two runs back from a break have indicated he is flying. Wound up very nicely behind Holy Delusions, who went on to win another two races in town, then had absolutely no luck behind Pillow Talk in a blanket finish. Given his racing pattern, he’ll receive more bad luck than good luck, but if he gets some of the latter, he can swoop and beat these.
Big Danger: More Than Brave (Best Odds: $4.80) finished third in that race Pillow Talk won and she was very game, sitting three wide on the pace. Provided she hasn’t taken too much harm from that gutbusting fresh run, she is the horse to beat. Wide draw is a slight concern, but Berry should offset that by sliding forward.
Roughie: Tweet (Best Odds: $16.00) has done nothing in four runs this time in, but perhaps getting to a bigger track in Sydney, and an inside gate, may see improvement from this talented filly. Keep an eye on her.
$250 Xatel Ekwa Free Bet
Race Eight: Royal Randwick Handicap 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: The lack of early speed engaged here makes me put Bonsai (Best Odds: $8.00) on top. All three of his runs this time in have been excellent, but he seems to find one or two better on the day. He should spear over from the wide barrier, get a cheap sectional, and with only 52.kg on his back, take some beating.
Big Danger: Shelford (Best Odds: $4.80) is a real money muncher with the punters, a very frustrating one. He worked to the line well first up behind the above average Darley galloper Emblems. He won’t know himself in a race like this, and if he brings his best form, he’ll beat these…but 1 win from 12 starts isn’t encouraging.
Roughie: Don’t think he beat much, but the way Dream Choice (Best Odds: $8.50) spanked his rivals at Scone was that of a horse who deserves another crack in town. When trained by David Payne, he ran some really good races behind the likes of Shanghai Bund and Frozen Rope. Don’t rule him out of calculations.
$250 Bonsai Free Bet
Best Roughie: Xatel Ekwa
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 7
Leg Two: 1, 3
Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5
$50 Investment = 22.32% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
