Geelong will host a strong eight race card this Wednesday, with our best bet coming in race four in the shape of Deliberate for Vlad Duric and Peter Snowden.
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Race One: GRC Function/Event Centre Maiden 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: I feel dumber after looking at this race. It’s horrendous. Slew Left (Best Odds: $3.50) for me though. Jumped from 1900 up to 2400 when a fast finishing fourth at Mornington to Set You Free. First real glimpse of any decent form in his 13 start career, so he could get the prize, but no confidence at all.
Big Danger: Sir Dylan (Best Odds: $1.70) had that race won, but just couldn’t find the winning post and was nabbed by Set You Free. He won’t get a better chance to break his maiden status, but he is one of the better milk drinkers in the maiden bracket.
Roughie: Devil’s Vibe (Best Odds: $8.00) did a bit of work to sit on the pace at Kilmore and just faded late when fourth to A Certain Girl. Up to 2400m will suit and is only fourth up here.
$250 Slew Left Free Bet
Race Two: Join The Briseis Club Maiden 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a good race for Frim And Frome (Best Odds: $3.20), who has put together two seconds from as many career runs. Looked to have her chance last start at Wangaratta, but she did beat the others very comfortably. Olly on board is a positive lead, drawn well, hard to beat.
Big Danger: Stradeeming (Best Odds: $6.50) led everywhere bar the post at Pakenham last time out. Should have little trouble leading these, and with leaders dominating recent meetings here, she comes right into calculations.
Roughie: Devil Woman (Best Odds: $4.50) couldn’t make up any ground in the early part of the straight at Mornington after getting a suck run off the pace. But her last 100m was good, suggesting that 1400m will be ideal. Definite chance.
$250 Frim And Frome Free Bet
Race Three: Geelong Advertiser Maiden Plate 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: Argos (Best Odds: $3.00) had two runs back in the Spring, both of which resulting in thirds. Will have come on now he has got that preparation under the belt and the stable are in good form.
Big Danger: Times Like These (Best Odds: $6.00) was well backed first up at Benalla, but punters who were on probably threw their ticket away after about 200m when the horse was caught four wide with no cover, so to finish three lengths away from the winner on the line was excellent. Provided that hasn’t busted his gut, he’ll be in the mix here.
Roughie: At The Crossing (Best Odds: $6.50) is just finding it a touch difficult to finish off her races. She is racing well, but just doesn’t attack the line. In saying that, she should get a comfortable lead here, and if recent trends are any indication, she’ll be hard to run down.
$250 Argos Mott Free Bet
Race Four: Elephant & Castle Maiden 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: The good thing on the program for me in Deliberate (Best Odds: $1.85). I liked him on debut at Caulfield, and if you did back him, it was a tragedy what unfolded in the straight. He poked his way through and was ready to burst through 250m out, but then got flattened and cut out of the run, then picked up and rattled late for fourth. Up in distance, drawn well, has obvious ability…looks the winner.
Big Danger: Risevata (Best Odds: $8.00) has worked home quite nicely in three career runs to date, albeit in easier company. Liked the way he attacked the line at Benalla, suggesting that 1700m should be ideal. Bossy on board, definite exotic player.
Roughie: Kaliq (Best Odds: $7.50) just got too far back here last time out. He did make up some ground late, but was never a winning hope. The step up to 1700m looks ideal and from the good draw, he can sit closer to the tempo.
$250 Deliberate Free Bet
Race Five: Ritchie Brothers Auctions Handicap (64) 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Well if ever Melting Moment (Best Odds: $3.30) is going to win another race, this is the one. Easiest race she has contested since breaking through for a win first up at Bendigo. Since then, she has raced alongside the likes of Kievann, Churchill Express, Kiss Me Ketut and Gig. If she doesn’t go at least very close to winning this, sack her.
Big Danger: Not A Llama (Best Odds: $2.60) was an impressive debut winner at Warrnambool, then led and showed some fight late when a narrow fourth to the above average filly Whistle Baby, who ran really well at Caulfield on the weekend. She’ll be up on the speed, and with Olly sticking, she’ll prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Bon Toosh (Best Odds: $14.00) did a stack of work in the run last start at Seymour, sitting three wide no cover on the speed, yet looked the winner 100m out before just getting a stitch late to end up in fourth. With normal luck here, she could surprise.
$250 Melting Moment Free Bet
Race Six: Viatek Handicap (64) 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Inkjet Sprinter (Best Odds: $4.00) is a different horse now that he has got a couple of wins under the belt. Before then, he was the Von Costa De Hero of the maiden ranks. He just didn’t want to win one. Rawiller lifted him home two back to get that breakthrough win, then he sat wide with no cover at Wangaratta, yet glided up to them in the straight and put them away like a horse who will comfortably win a midweek city race. Olly is on board now, drawn beautifully and strikes a winnable race.
Big Danger: Berrichon (Best Odds: $3.85) was given a peach ride by Baster to win her maiden at Bendigo, leading all the way, then sat off the pace at Werribee and rattled home late to go down narrowly. She is definitely looking for further, which she gets here, and should be cherry ripe fitness wise.
Roughie: Irish Kingdom (Best Odds: $19.00) hugged the rail and made up some ground in the straight when resuming a couple of weeks back at Kyneton. She’ll better over further, but she does have very good second up stats (3:1-0-2), good barrier and a very handy trainer/jockey combination.
$250 Inkjet Sprinter Free Bet
Race Seven: Hyland Race Colours Handicap (70) 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Capalbio (Best Odds: $5.50) was a surprise first up winner at Kyneton, then sat last in the run and made up ground late when sixth to Spellrocker at Caulfield, a race which had much more depth than what she faces here. Hopefully for her supporters, she could sit a touch closer from the handy draw.
Big Danger: Enjoy The Silence (Best Odds: $17.00) is a game little gelding who always tries his best every time he steps out. Kicked very hard to win first up at Yarra Valley, then went to Mornington where he got a good run in front, looked home on the turn, but was overhauled late by a city class horse in Maphelane. Lead is his from the pain, should prove hard to run down.
Roughie: Bel Rhythm (Best Odds: $17.00) is another who is racing quite consistently at present without winning. Ran a solid third at Echuca in a handy race behind Grand Zee and De Mars. Draws well for this and has a good record at Geelong.
$250 Capalbio Free Bet
Race Eight: Sportingbet Handicap (64) 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: Best Suggestion (Best Odds: $2.80) was a most impressive first up winner at Benalla, leading all the way in fast time which compared quite well to the older horses on the same program, suggesting he has the ability. Should get a charmed run from the barrier and Craig Williams takes over.
Big Danger: Got To Win (Best Odds: $4.40) was an impressive first up winner at Echuca, sitting off the pace before unleashing in the straight and showing a smart turn of foot. Has to step it up a notch here, but he looks quite promising.
Roughie: Air Bender (Best Odds: $12.00) hasn’t been seen since winning on debut at Mildura quite comfortably in August. Had trialled in November and didn’t look that flash at all, so he has come back now a couple of months later. On his debut win, he is a chance. On the trial in November, he’ll struggle. Market will be the best guide.
$250 Best Suggestion Free Bet
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Best Bet: Race Four Number 3 Deliberate (Best Odds: $1.85)
Next Best: Race Five Number 3 Melting Moment (Best Odds: $3.30)
Best Roughie: Race Six Number 5 Inkjet Sprinter (Best Odds: $4.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Leg Two: 3, 5, 8, 9, 12
Leg Three: 3, 11, 12
Leg Four: 4, 5, 8, 11
$50 Investment = 16.66% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
