Lightly raced and promising stayer Star Rolling heads the betting markets for the 2013 Cranbourne Cup, having already firmed from $4.00 into $3.40 That may shorten further again on Saturday afternoon depending on the performance of Let’s Make A Deal, whom he beat comfortably last start, who is entered in Saturday’s G2 Herbert Power at Caulfield. Outside of Star Rolling it is an open affair with Sertorius representing good value at $9.00 after two impressive runs back from a spell.
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1. PAKAL – G Boss (1)
Former European galloper who has performed well at each of his five Australian runs to date. From a wide gate, he camped on the speed and managed to hold off all bar two rivals when third (beaten 1.9 lengths) behind Ibicenco and Mr. O’Ceirin in the Listed Slickpix Stakes (1700m). Unfortunately at his next start, he decided to get back in the run and in a slowly run race and was only starting to warm to the task late when fourth (beaten 2.5 lengths) in the G3 Naturalism Stakes (2000m). Despite having to cart 60kgs here, he is in very solid form and with a good draw and jockey also in his favour, will be a real threat here.
2. VOILA ICI – (17)
His second and third runs in Australia, after arriving from overseas this time last year, were fantastic efforts in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) and G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) where he finished second and a close up fourth respectively. On those efforts, the now 9yo, was expected to produce more than what he has in ten runs since. His last start, his first for seven weeks, was a long last in the Slickpix Stakes (1700m) and whilst he’ll be fitter for that run, second up with a big weight and wide draw will be too much of an ask.
3. MOURINHO – C Newitt (6)
Third up from a spell last start, the Peter Gelagotis trained galloper lined up in the G3 JRA Cup at his favourite track Moonee Valley. From the widest gate in the field of twelve, he worked himself to the lead and in a race run in heavy rain, he showed great fight late to record a long neck win over Gris Caro and The Great Snowman. He has a strong record at this trip and will get the chance to take up a prominent position again however; he does jump 5kgs on last start and takes on a stronger field.
4. BIT OF HELL – D Dunn (15)
Former Italian galloper who has been under the care of trainer Mick Price for four Australian starts this year. He was well beaten, as 3/1 favourite, at his first run back from a brief break before being well accounted for in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at his following start. He appreciated the drop in grade, the step up in trip and possibly the softer track, when producing a much better effort in the G3 Naturalism Stakes (2000m) at his most recent start, finishing third behind Mr. O’Ceirin. A much better effort last start at his first go at a distance which saw him produce some very good results overseas and he’s capable of going better again.
5. SHOREHAM – C Symons (9)
A 4yo by Reset whose three runs back from a sixteen week spell have all been solid performances. He was caught wide during the run first up in the Listed Sofitel Stakes (1400m) at Flemington but still managed to record a narrow victory over Dany The Fox. Second up and on a slow track, he was just caught a little flatfooted when sixth (beaten 2.1 lengths) in Open company (1400m) and at his most recent start, finished within two lengths of the in-form Bass Strait (entered in Saturday’s G1 Toorak Handicap). Comfortably won the Listed Galilee Final (2500m) last prep so no problems about the distance fourth up and he would have to be rated a genuine each way chance.
6. SERTIOUS – R Maloney (16)
A lightly raced 6yo who resumed with an eye-catching effort over the unsuitable 1200m of the Bobbie Lewis Stakes, when finishing sixth and within two lengths of Speediness. The form out of that race has been first class so it was no surprise to see him sent out the 15/8 favourite in an Open class (1500m) race at Moonee Valley at his next and most recent start a fortnight ago. He settled worse than mid-field but was finishing hard and ran second behind the impressive winner Blackie – who is entered in Saturday’s G1 Toorak Handicap. Two runs back suggest he has returned in fine order and now he’s up to suitable trip, we should expect another good performance here – despite the horror draw.
7. FLYING HUSSLER – P Mertens (8)
He comes into this race in sensational form, having won his past three starts with the most recent victory being a comprehensive five length win in last week’s Benella Cup (2046m) when leading all the way. Does rise 3kgs on the weight carried last start and takes on a stronger field here but dominated last start and is in a true purple patch of form.
8. STAR ROLLING – R Wheeler (14)
A Casino Prince gelding who has won four of his six starts including, at his most recent outing, the Listed Penang Trophy (1800m) in Adelaide. Third in that race was Araldo, who subsequently won the Listed Bart Cummings (2500m) when successfully lodging a protest against Sea Moon. Second in that race, is the promising Let’s Make A Deal who, along with Sea Moon, is entered in Saturday’s G2 Herbert Power at Caulfield, so we should get a good handle on her chance here. Another who hasn’t faired well in terms of the draw but going well enough to overcome that.
9. TALENT SHOW – D Tourneur (3)
Western Australian galloper who was in solid form during a summer campaign that culminated in him winning the G2 Perth Cup (2400m) on New Year’s Day. He’s most recent efforts however, all in Victoria, haven’t produced the same results and he was very dour last week in the Listed Bart Cumming (2500m) when 5 ¾ fifth behind Araldo. On that run and recent form, he’s entitled to be big odds once again.
10. ZABISCO – D Oliver (2)
He wasn’t too far away in some handy mile and middle distance races last preparation however, in three runs back from a spell, he hasn’t produced anything that would suggest he’s capable of figuring in the finish here. He ran ninth in the Slickpix Stakes (1700m) before, at his most recent start, settling at the tail and making little ground in the run home when tenth (beaten 8.6 lengths) behind Mourinho. Not on those efforts.
11. CUBAN SUNDAY – (10)
6yo from Pat Carey’s stables, he has had three runs back this time in with the latest effort being a second to last in a BM 90 (2000m) at Caulfield a fortnight ago behind Phantom Brew. Did have to lug 59.5kgs then and drops to 54kgs here but, given he hasn’t run a place in his eight starts since his last win a year ago, you cannot have him with any confidence here.
12. LORD DURANTE – D Gauci (4)
Honest on-pacer who has only missed a place once in his past eight starts – that was in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes (1400m) when first up off an eight week break. His two runs since then have been very good and resulted in a second to The Great Snowman and last start, third to the in-form Bass Strait over 1700m at Caulfield a fortnight ago. In form, drawn well but, steps up to the 2000m for the first time in his career and this would be an honestly ran affair.
13. VIZHAKA – B Knobel (12)
Consistent performances in restricted races, this 6yo by Seul Amour last two wins have come at Mornington on heavy tracks. He’s ventured to the metropolitan tracks in the past on several occasions but with only moderate success and he’ll find more than a few too good for him here.
14. BEWARE OF THESTORM – SCRATCHED
15. BEL THOR – C Schofield (7)
He has only missed a place once in six starts since resuming from a ten week break back in July and whilst that came at his most recent start, it was a good effort all the same. He finished fifth to Bass Strait (beaten 2.1 lengths) and that followed a third to promising Pro Tour on a heavy track at Cranbourne. Had good form around this distance and runners the calibre of Shoreham and Bass Strait last prep and could be one over the odds here.
16. LOVE FOR RANSOM – L Nolen (11)
When she won a 3yo fillies race at Moonee Valley over 1200m last year, at only her second start in devastating fashion, the daughter of Red Ransom looked set for a highly promising career. Ten starts and twelve months later however, she’s still searching for her next win and is now contesting middle distant races. She’s been solid enough in recent starts, finishing second and fourth in RST 84 graded races but would need to show substantial improvement to claim this race.
17. QUICK BOND – L Coffey (13)
Resumed from a ten month spell in a BM 78 race at Sale as a 100/1 chance and almost pulled off a stunning upset, leading until the final stages of the race before holding on to third, beaten .6 of a length. He’s next start came in last week’s Bairnsdale Cup (1600m) and, like he has down here, drew a poor barrier and settled at the tail of the field. He made no impressive in the run home and finished eleventh (beaten 5.9 lengths) behind Road Trippin’. He is better suited up to the 2025m of this race but also in a race of lesser quality.
OVERVIEW
Speed here should be quite solid with a number of horses drawn wide looking to take up forward positions, along with several drawn much better who will want to take advantage of their gate. In an extremely open affair, be looking for one who is capable of camping off the speed and finishing over the top and Star Rolling seems to fit the bill. The form out of his last start – which he won with something in hand, is standing up very well.
He’s only had six starts thus far and will still be improving. Sertorius is the main danger and at $9.00, is a very good price. He too has found himself in some strong form races at his first two runs back from a spell but now that he gets to the 2000m, he’ll come into his own. Pakal ($5.00) the next best, just some concern over him drawing the inside gate with 60kgs. The pace will be solid here and with that kind of weight, he’ll need to get an uninterrupted run home but if any jockey were to find the right run home, it’ll be Boss.
- STAR ROLLING
- SERTORIUS
- PAKAL
- BIT OF HELL
