Seventeen races within the space of twenty-four hours will lead us to the Grand Finale – the W. S. Cox Plate. With the withdrawal of short pre-post favourite Atlantic Jewel on Tuesday morning, the race has been thrown open with Puissance De Lune, Fiorente and It’s A Dundeel, all vying for favouritism. Puissance De Lune’s regular rider Glen Boss will be sidelined due to suspension handed to him from Saturday Caulfield Cup race with Ben Melham, who will be riding the horse for the first time, now given a golden opportunity to score the biggest win of his career.
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1. GREEN MOON – B Prebble (12)
He finished a well beaten seventh of fourteen as the 4/1 favourite in this race last year before claiming the Melbourne Cup at his following start. The 7yo had his first start back from a twenty-five week spell with a good effort behind Atlantic Jewel in the G1 Memsie Stakes, hitting the line in good style to run fifth (beaten 3 lengths). He then lined up in the G1 Underwood (1800m), got too far back in a race dominated by the leading pair but still did well to finish fourth lengths (9th) behind It’s A Dundeel. With those two runs under his belt, he appeared ready to produce his best when he was entered for the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) a fortnight ago however, an elevated temperature the day before the race, saw him withdrawn. Having now not raced for over a month, it hasn’t been the ideal preparation for the 7yo with his task made harder again from his wide draw.
2. HAPPY TRAILS – D Dunn (2)
He started 60/1 in this race last year when, after running fifth to Green Moon in the Turnbull Stakes (1600m), there were queries about the son of Good Journey being able to run out a strong 2000m. This year however, his preparation has been solely focused around this race and his last two starts suggest he’s on target. He finished fourth (beaten 1.1 lengths) behind It’s A Dundeel and Atlantic Jewel in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) before, at his most recent, being ridden a treat by Dunn from his good draw and bursting through late to claim the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m). Fawkner, winner of last weekend’s Caulfield Cup, ran third in that race and from another good draw here, he is capable of bettering last year’s performance. Has firmed from $17 into $14 in early betting.
3. FIORENTE – B Shinn (15)
This former Italian galloper arrived in Australia this time last year and impressed everybody by running second in the Melbourne Cup at his first local start. Since then the Gai Waterhouse trained runner has continue to impress and never more so than with his last two outings. With an astonishing finishing burst, he came from a near impossible position on the turn in the G2 Dato’Tan Chin Nam (1600m) here at Moonee Valley two starts ago, to record a head win over Spacecraft and Lidari. He then lined up in the G1 Turnbull Stakes and settled well back in the run before pushing through a tight gap in the straight and again, producing a strong finale that saw him get within a half-length of winner Happy Trails and run fourth. From a wide draw, he’ll need a bit more luck in running than some of his competitors but he has shown in each Australian run, his last two especially, that should he get the opportunities in the run, he’s more than capable of taking this out.
4. FORETELLER – C Newitt (9)
The 7yo has been in very consistent form this year having competed in seven Group 1 races for two wins (Ranvet Stakes, Makybe Diva Stakes) and running two placings. One of those placings came at his most recent start when finished four lengths second to Atlantic Jewel in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m). It was a good effort given the small field and tempo of the race didn’t suit. It was a similar story in the G1 Underwood Stakes where, from a wide draw, he got too far back in a race dominated by those up on the speed and he finished twelfth (beaten 5 lengths) behind It’s A Dundeel. From nine, he’ll be able to settle midfield here and the generally solid tempo of the Cox Plate should be far more to his liking. It is his first look at the Moonee Valley circuit but again, the cushion of the strathayr surface should also be favourable and he is not without hope of filling a place here.
5. SIDE GLANCE – C Williams (1)
A well travelled – and performed – 7yo gelding that is owned by the same connections that raced Dunaden in Australia with great success in recent years. After running fourth to Animal Kingdom in the Dubai World Cup (2000m) back in March, the son of Passing Glance was spelled and has had his two runs since, well spaced. The most recent of them came ten weeks ago where he settled on the pace behind the leader and had no luck getting a clear run on the point of the turn. By the time he secured clear running, the winner was off and gone and he finished third. He’ll get the opportunity to take up a similar position here from the inside draw and his team know what it takes to be successful in the southern hemisphere.
6. SEVILLE – J Bowman (10)
He got to the right race for the first time this preparation last start, his fourth run this time in, when lining up in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap (2400m) at Randwick three weeks ago. He was afforded a lovely run on the leader’s back and every chance in the straight when the leader rolled off around the turn. He was then able to outstay the late challengers and defeated Julienas by half a length. The return to weight for age conditions of this race and to ten furlongs will see this 6yo struggle here. He is more than likely using this race, as did stable-mate Green Moon last year, as his final hit-out for next Tuesday week’s Melbourne Cup.
7. REKINDLED INTEREST – M Zahra (6)
This is his third attempt at this race. His first in 2011 resulted in an unlucky third behind Pinker Pinker whilst last year’s effort saw him finish last and being immediately spelled. We didn’t see the son of Redoute’s Choice then until six weeks ago when he ran a surprising second at 40/1 first up in the Listed Drummond Golf Stakes (1200m) behind in-form Le Bonsir. Trainer John Conlan than took his charge north to Sydney for a crack at the G1 Epsom Handicap (1600m). Second up off a long break, jumping from six to eight furlongs, his effort was fair in finishing twelfth, only four lengths from winner Boban. Whilst he will be fitter again for that run, this is another step up for him and the fact remains, whilst he has been G1 placed on several occasions, he still only has three wins from twenty-two starts to his name.
8. PUISSANCE DE LUNE – (8)
After commencing this campaign with an impressive win in the G2 P B Lawrence Stakes (1400m), his fourth consecutive win, he shot to the top of all feature betting markets. His price in those markets has eased at each of his three subsequent runs despite running a close second on two occasions and having genuine excuses in the other. He drew the widest gate and settled at the tail of the field in a slowly run G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) won by It’s A Dundeel before, from the inside gate, securing a far more prominent position in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at his last start. He got every chance in the run but was bloused on the line by Happy Trails who had tracked him in the run throughout and had the final shot. His form is rock solid and he’s capable of taking up a good position here, ready to produce at the right time.
9. MASKED MARVEL – N Hall (5)
A former European galloper who made his Australian debut in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at Flemington, three runs ago back in September. He finished well done the track in the hot field before appreciating the step in distance and the step down in grade, when producing a strong finishing effort to run third behind Moriarty in the G2 Hill Stakes (2000m). His last start was a head second to Honorius as the 15/8 favourite in the G3 Craven Plate (2000m) three weeks ago. Is improving with each starts but he needed to win in a good style last start to be competitive in a field of this quality.
10. MULL OF KILLOUGH – S Arnold (4)
Another overseas galloper making his Australian debut, this 8yo gelding is trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam and brings with him a record of eight wins from twenty-eight starts. He has been sparingly raced this year, only having had faced the starter on four occasions with this most recent effort coming ten weeks ago in the G1 Arlington Mile (2012). He raced in a forward position there, as he often does, before weakening in the run home to finish eighth in the field of thirteen, 5 ¼ lengths from the winner. His overall record suggests his optimal distance is over 1600-1800m. He has raced over 2000m five times in his career for one win – the Listed Seymour Stakes at Newmarket on a slow surface. Expecting him to push forward from his good gate but also to struggle to hold of the challengers late in a solidly run 2000m race such as this.
11. IT’S A DUNDEEL – J McDonald (13)
Son of High Chaparral who has won four of his past six races including, at his most recent start, the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield where he accounted for the as then undefeated, Atlantic Jewel. That followed a luckless fourth in the G1 Memsie Stakes and signalled that the he was set to figure predominately in each big race he contended for the remainder of the spring. He was next scheduled to line up in the G1 Caulfield Stakes a fortnight ago but a foot abscess prevented the 4yo from taking his position in the field. It also meant that he’d have to head into the Cox Plate not having had a run in five weeks. That obviously wasn’t the plan at the start of the preparation but trainer Murray Baker is adamant the setback will not harm the horse’s chances here and, his overall record is exemplary however, when asked to take $4.00 in a race such as this, you do want to be sure he is right to go.
12. SUPER COOL – C Brown (14)
With Atlantic Jewel out, trainer Mark Kavanagh’s chances of a second Cox Plate lay with this 4yo son of Fastnet Rock. After a very successful autumn campaign that saw him claim the WFA Australian Cup (2000m), he appeared set for another successful preparation when producing an eye-catching third in the Memsie Stakes. He backed that up with a close up fourth, where he found plenty of traffic, in the G2 Dato’tan Chin Nam (1600m) behind Fiorente and again, raced in tight quarters when finishing ninth (beaten 3 ¾ lengths) to Happy Trails in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m). Had no excuses last start though when no match for stable-mate Atlantic Jewel and Foreteller in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m). This race should be run much more to his liking than the Caulfield Stakes and only two starts ago, would not have had thought you could get $21.00 about him in this race.
13. ATLANTIC JEWEL – SCRATCHED
14. LONG JOHN – K McEvoy (11)
The Caulfield Guineas winner lines up here, looking to emulate last year’s Guineas’ winner All Too Hard who ran a close second to Ocean Park. As the 11/4 favourite, he was ridden a treat in the Guineas by McEvoy to secure victory and with only 49.5kgs allocated to him here, the big son of Street Cry will attempt to use his weight advantage and find a spot on pace, perhaps even lead – given that the last two three years to have won the Cox Plate, Savabeel (2004) and So You Think (2009), have done so from this position. It takes a good 3yo to win the Cox Plate but he certainly has earned his shot.
15. SHAMUS AWARD – C Schofield (3)
His last two efforts, a nose second to Divine Calling in the G2 Bill Stutt Stakes (1600m) and a slashing third in the Caulfield Guineas, when finishing hard from the tail, have earned him a spot among the better performers of his generation. He drew wide in the Guineas and raced back in the field by default rather than design. From this gate, he’ll go forward and as he showed in the Bill Stutt, is capable of sticking on. The weight, or lack of it to be more precise, is the big advantage the 3yo’s have and they’ll be keen to ensure they utilise this asset to its full potential.
RACE OVERVIEW
No definitive leader on paper but as the case is more often than not in the Cox Plate, the pace should be a genuine one. The two overseas visitors Side Glance and Mull Of Killough, along with the two 3yo’s, Long John and Shamus Award, should all push forward with Happy Trails and Puissance De Lune in behind them. The latter two have good chances. Happy Trails’ form is spot on for this and he appears to represented good value in early markets and even now, after tightening into $14.00, still comes in for close consideration. Puissance De Lune should get a lovely run and with a bit of give expected in the Valley circuit, the conditions required to leave him with no excuses. Really hard to tip It’s A Dundeel with the confidence you need to heading into a big race like this given the enforced break he has had due to the abscess. At his best he’s in this up to his neck and more than likely still be involved in the finish. It’s just the final furlong of what should be a solid 2000m that holds some concerns. Despite the draw, will stick with Fiorente as the one to beat. He got too far back in the Turnbull, found some traffic at a crucial stage but hit the line better than anything in the race. He is already one from one on this track and hopefully Shinn, who is riding in good form, can find the right horse form 800m to tack onto and bring him into the straight before peeling out and unleashing his big finish.
- FIORENTE
- PUISSANCE DE LUNE
- IT’S A DUNDEEL
- HAPPY TRAILS
