For the first time, the Brownlow Medal has a weekend to itself and the timing couldn’t be better with the 2021 edition shaping as one of the most open counts in years.
Since Matt Priddis’s blowout win in 2014 only once has there not been a favourite at $2 or shorter going into the count. That was 2019, when Patrick Dangerfield was the $2.60 favourite but $7 chance Nat Fyfe won the award for the second time.
Fyfe was a $2 chance in 2015, Patrick Dangerfield $1.16 the following year, Dustin Martin $1.05 in 2017, Tom Mitchell $1.45 in 2018 and Lachie Neale $1.25 last year.
Marcus Bontempelli had a brief stint as an odds-on favourite towards the end of the season but he was replaced by Ollie Wines, who started the season an $81 chance, as favourite after the final round with Clayton Oliver now pressing for favouritism. Oliver was $41 in October.
Jack Steele, like Oliver, enters Brownlow weekend at his shortest price of the season ($7), while Christian Petracca rounds out the top five, despite being a drifter having spent time at the top of the market in the middle part of the season.
Below is a look at the key chances, their price timeline and some of the more lucrative bets on them.
OLLIE WINES ($3.25): Started the season $81, which was still available at Rd 5. Was into $21 before Rd 7, $7.50 after Rd 14 and $4.50 after Rd 18. Still $4.50 going into the final round but came into $2.75 favourite after playing well in the Power’s win over the Bulldogs.
Bets of interest: $200 at $81, $300 at $34, $200 at $34, $300 at $17, $1000 at $11, $1500 at $5, $2460 at $3.25.
CLAYTON OLIVER ($3.50): Was $41 in October, in to $26 before the season started but back out to $34 after Rd 1. Price gradually dropped throughout April and May and hit single figures for the first time when $9 after Rd 10. In as low as $4.50 after Rd 13, back to $9 after Rd 19, was $7 going into Rd 23 and $4.50 immediately after it, now into $3.50.
Best of interest: $500 at $21, $2000 at $9, $1000 at $9, $2150 at $4.50, $1500 at $4.50.
MARCUS BONTEMPELLI ($4): Has not been any longer than $11 since the market opened. Hit that price after Rd 2 after starting the season a $9 chance and was still $10 after Rd 4 but was into $6 after Rd 5. Was in to $3.40 after Rd 10, odds-on at $1.90 after Rd 19 but a slight drifter since. Was $2.25 after Rd 20, $2.50 at Rd 22 and went $2.50 out to $3 after final-round loss to Port and gradual drift to $4 since.
Best of interest: $500 at $10, $1000 at $7, $5000 at $4, $1400 at $4, $1000 at $4 (twice), $1000 at $3.50 (twice), $2000 at $2.75 (twice), $4000 at $2.50, $4500 at $1.90.
JACK STEELE ($7): Went up $15 in the first market and was a $19 chance at the start of the season and gradually drifted throughout the first half of the season and peaked at $34 after Rd 16. Starred in the Saints’ Rd 17 win over Brisbane and price has trimmed ever since. Ended the home-and-away season at $9 but now into $7.
Best of interest: $500 at $19, $500 at $17, $1000 at $15, $1000 at $11, $1300 at $8.
TAB ODDS – BROWNLOW MEDAL WINNER
$3.25 Ollie Wines
$3.50 Clayton Oliver
$4.00 Marcus Bontempelli
$7.00 Jack Steele
$14 Christian Petracca
$21 Sam Walsh
$26 Darcy Parish
$41 Tom Mitchell, Jackson Macrae
$51 Zac Merrett
$67 Luke Parker, Jarryd Lyons
$81 Travis Boak
$101 Max Gawn, Josh Kelly, Cam Guthrie, Rory Laird
$151+ Quote others
TOP 3
$1.55 Ollie Wines
$1.60 Clayton Oliver
$1.75 Marcus Bontempelli
$2.25 Jack Steele
$4.00 Darcy Parish
$4.50 Christian Petracca, Touk Miller
$6.00 Sam Walsh
TOP 5
$1.17 Clayton Oliver
$1.20 Ollie Wines
$1.25 Marcus Bontempelli
$1.30 Jack Steele
$2.25 Christian Petracca, Touk Miller
$2.40 Sam Walsh
$2.50 Darcy Parish
$3.50 Tom Mitchell
TOP 10
$1.02 Jack Steele
$1.40 Christian Petracca
$1.22 Sam Walsh
$1.25 Touk Miller
$1.35 Darcy Parish
$1.50 Tom Mitchell
$1.75 Jackson Macrae
$2.10 Zac Merrett
