The layers have Nadal as favourite for this ninth main level career meeting with Raonic and I agree with that assessment, but I’m expecting a tough match for both men here.
Each showed their vulnerability on Monday in their round four matches, with Nadal almost taken the distance by Gael Monfils and Raonic rather fortunate to beat Roberto Bautista Agut in four sets.
When Monfils finally showed up for his match with Rafa in the third set he was able to get on top of the Spaniard with some heavy, attacking hitting and Nadal will encounter more of that on Wednesday from Raonic.
And Raonic was outplayed for long spells of his clash with RBA, but proved the better in the key moments, with his serve coming to his aid on several occasions.
‘No tie break’ backers at a big price were unlucky again in that match, with Raonic letting slip a 4-1 lead in set one to go to a breaker and the 4.5 about none against Nadal appeals too.
The pair have played just two in 19 main level sets against each other and Nadal’s 32.6% service break stats could well ensure that there isn’t one again.
At the very least 4.50 seems a big price about there not being one and 1.68 about under 1.5 tie breaks looks decent too.
This match has the feel of a long one; a bit of an up and down affair, with Nadal not able to keep up his best level for as long as he used to and that famous forehand breaks down more now than it did in his heyday.
He’s also not quite as speedy around the court and he doesn’t defend as amazingly as he used to, but the Spaniard is still tough to put away, as Alexander Zverev discovered (again).
Raonic had a fever earlier in the tournament and perhaps isn’t quite at his best physically (when is he these days?) and it would have been interesting had RBA been able to take a 2-1 lead against the Canadian.
It’s Nadal who has the better stats on outdoor hard courts over the past year, with a total of 114.7 (82.1% holds/32.6% breaks), with Raonic on 109.3 (89.6% holds/19.7% breaks).
But it was the Canadian who won their clash in Brisbane by two sets to one (again, no tie breaks) less than three weeks ago, but Raonic will find conditions on Rod Laver Arena at night slower than there and he’s yet to play on Laver, so it’s advantage Nadal in that sense.
I can see this one going the distance and over 4.5 sets or over 183.5 minutes are the ones of interest here, with under 1.5 tie breaks also likely, but perhaps a tad short in price.
So, it’s the over 4.5 sets at 3.20 for me in what’s a tricky one to call.