The 2017 Australian Open begins on Monday at Melbourne Park, with 32 men’s round one matches scheduled for day one.
Looking at the weather forecast we’re expecting a sunny day with temperatures in the shade of around 30C, so on court it’ll be hot and early signs are that conditions this year are quicker in any case, according to the players.
Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Nick Kyrgios are among those set to be in action on day one, but I like the chances of another seed or two to struggle in their opening matches.
Marin Cilic vs Jerzy Janowicz
Since reaching the heights of a Wimbledon semi final and a career high ranking of number 14 in the world Janowicz has been beset by injury problems, with the Pole’s right knee issue stopping him from playing much in the last couple of years.
That has seen his ranking plummet down to number 278 and having been away from the big stage for so long Janowicz should enjoy the fast conditions in Melbourne and a chance to take on a former Grand Slam champion in Cilic.
We saw against Novak Djokovic at last year’s US Open that JJ still has the game to cause problems for the best players in the world when he took a set from the then world number one.
Janowicz came into that match having lost his previous one to Clement Green in the Meerbusch Challenger on clay two weeks beforehand and still produced some fine tennis before fatigue set in.
His preparation has been better this time with handy wins over Tommy Haas and Yoshihito Nishioka at the Kooyong exhibition event and he can cause problems for what will be an underprepared Cilic.
The world number six lost his only match of 2017 so far to Jozef Kovalik (who went on to lose in straight sets to Marco Trungelliti in the Australian Open qualies) in Chennai and Cilic admitted after that one that he “was a bit rusty.”
The Croat hasn’t played since then and having lost his opening set(s) here at the Open the last two times he’s played (to Thiemo De Bakker in 2016 and Marcel Granollers in 2014) I like the 4.0 on Janowicz taking set one.
On the two occasions that JJ and Cilic met in the past the Pole took the opening set in both matches and a strong start is possible again in a match he’ll surely relish.
The other two seeds that may have a tough time on Monday are Bernard Tomic and Sam Querrey, with both looking vulnerable against flashy, dangerous opponents and neither seed is in anything like good form.
Bernard Tomic vs Thomaz Bellucci
Tomic usually performs well in familiar conditions in Australia, but he’s been poor so far at a stage of the season that’s usually been good for him in terms of ranking points and results.
This year though Tomic has failed to win a match – even at the Kooyong event – and he hasn’t tasted victory since last September, with no wins over a top-100 opponent since last August.
It’s been bizarre so far this year, even by Bernie’s standards, with a fitness programme designed to make him stronger after he put on weight in the off-season ending up losing him 5kgs but “draining” him at the same time.
Now, after the apparent failure of the training regime, the unpredictable Aussie is saying: “There are some players not as fit as me inside the top 10, 15 in the world. Will fitness help them? I don’t think so. I’ve based my sport, what I’ve got in my career, with my serve, my ability to play tennis. I think there are many fitter players than me that are outside the top 100 in the world.”
So, now he thinks that fitness doesn’t help much, and we’ll see against Bellucci, who crushed Tomic two and two on hard courts in Shenzhen in the autumn and the Brazilian will surely gain more confidence from the performances and statements of Tomic.
Tomic’s numbers over the last year at main level on outdoor hard aren’t great at all, with 80.6% service holds and just 17.7% breaks for a total of 98.3 and Bellucci isn’t far behind on 97.5, so we’re looking at a shaky 1.41 favourite here.
He was a 1.47 shot when Bellucci beat him in China and the 2.43 on Bellucci taking the opener or the 1.97 on the Brazilian +1.5 sets are worthy of consideration here.
Quentin Halys vs Sam Querrey
It’s almost a given to look closely at Querrey’s form when he plays the Australian Open, with the American a regular struggler Down Under and we enjoyed a nice winner with Diego Schwartzman against him in Brisbane.
Querrey’s record in Australia now reads 11 wins and 20 losses, with the last six defeats coming consecutively since a victory over Ernests Gulbis here in Melbourne back in 2014.
He’s lost in his opening match in six of his last seven tournaments on tour, with the sole win coming over the equally out of form Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and in total he’s now lost nine of his last 10 matches going back to last summer.
Not the sort of form I’d be looking for in a 1.30 chance and Halys, who gets a wild card again this year due to the arrangement between the French and Australian federations may well make good use of it once more.
Halys played well here a year ago, beating Ivan Dodig in round one and then taking an in-form Djokovic to a tie break in round two, and any repeat of that form from the big-serving Frenchman will see Querrey in trouble again.
Querrey’s numbers are on the slide, with only 81.1% holds and 17.1% breaks on outdoor hard at main level in the past year compared to 84.2% and 17.4% in his career and despite Querrey enjoying a couple of wins in the exhibition event in Adelaide a few days ago the +1.5 sets on Halys at 2.32 appeals in this match.
Elsewhere, Nico Almagro brings a 5-0 career series lead into his match with Jeremy Chardy, with the Spaniard priced up as underdog, and Diego Schwartzman has his chances at odds-against versus Pablo Cuevas too, with the Argentine posting better service hold/break stats than the Uruguayan in the last year on outdoor hard courts at main level.
If Andrey Kuznetsov brings it all together he could push a likely below full fitness Kei Nishikori on a good day, while Sam Groth may be able to take advantage of the apparent ongoing wrist problems of Steve Darcis.
Best Bets
1 point win Bellucci to win set one at $2.43
1 point win Halys +1.5 sets to beat Querrey at $2.32
½ point win Janowicz to win set one at $4.00