Both Italy and Uruguay have been beaten by the surprise package of this World Cup Costa Rica. The two heavyweights were tipped by bookmakers to advance before the start of the tournament but as it is, one of them will crash out on Tuesday. They play here for the right to join Costa Rica in the Round of 16. A draw will suffice for Italy to progress but La Celeste need to win in order to try and match their success in South Africa four years ago.

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For Italy, it is uncertain how they will fare in the match. After brushing England aside in their opening match, the Azurri capitulated against Costa Rica and subsequently lost 1-0. Mario Balotelli, scorer of the winning goal against England had two early chances in the Costa Rica match but squandered them both. Despite needing only a draw to progress, Italy coach Cesare Prandelli knows how dangerous it is to play for a draw and will likely replace ailing AS Roma midfielder Danielle De Rossi with attacking midfielder Marco Verrattiss. After failing to emerge from the group stage in South Africa 2010, the pressure is certainly on the Italians to perform.

Uruguay, who also lost to Costa Rica in their opening match, can argue about mitigating circumstances. The South Americans were without English Premier League top scorer Luis Suarez for the match and struggled to create chances. The Liverpool forward is now back, after making a goal scoring return in the 2-1 defeat of England. Much will depend on him and PSG striker Edison Cavani in the bid to reach the knockout stages of the World Cup.

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Both teams are evenly matched and even the bookmakers are having a hard time separating them. An Italy win is priced at 2.75 while a win for Uruguay is priced at 2.80. Interestingly, the odds for them to play out a stalemate is a relatively long 3.30. Italy fans will be hoping for at least the latter but a look at the history books suggest that Uruguay have a slight advantage having won three and drawn four in the last nine matches against Italy.

After grabbing the match winning brace that sent England crashing out of the tournament, Luis Suarez is priced at a short 6.00 to score the first goal in Natal. Only AC Milan striker Mario Balotelli is priced shorter at 5.50. Both Balotelli and Suarez are also backed to score at any time with odds 2.50 and 2.62 respectively. Edinson Cavani and Serie A top scorer last season Ciro Immobile are priced at 3.20 to score at any time.

Probable Lineups

Italy (4-3-3): Buffon; Darmian, Bonucci, Chiellini, Abate; Pirlo, Thiago Motta, Verratti; Marchisio, Balotelli, Candreva

Uruguay (4-4-2): Muslera; Pereira, Giminez, Godin, Caceras; Rodriguez, Lodeiro, Rios, Gonzalez; Suarez, Cavani

Prediction: Uruguay 1 – 1 Italy at $6.00 with Bet365 – Join Now for a $200 FREE BET – Limited Offer