Months of anticipation, speculation and talk are over – the 2021 State of Origin series begins on Wednesday night!
For the first time in the history of Australia’s fiercest rugby league rivalry, State of Origin goes regional for Game 1, and the New South Wales Blues will have to deal with a parochial Townsville crowd.
The Blues bottled the 2020 series as clear favourites, but the bookies are confident that they will bounce back in Game 1, and they have opened at odds of $1.50.
The Queensland spirit was on show in full force in November, and they represent terrific value to win Game 1 here at Neds ($2.45 at publish).
Check out our preview of both teams and our complete State of Origin Game 1 Tips below!
| Queensland | Position | New South Wales |
| Valentine Holmes | Fullback | James Tedesco |
| Xavier Coates | Winger | Brian To’o |
| Kurt Capewell | Centre | Latrell Mitchell |
| Dane Gagai | Centre | Tom Trbojevic |
| Kyle Feldt | Winger | Josh Addo-Carr |
| Cameron Munster | Five-Eighth | Jarome Luai |
| Daly Cherry-Evans | Halfback | Nathan Cleary |
| Christian Welch | Prop | Daniel Safiti |
| Harry Grant | Hooker | Damien Cook |
| Tino Faasuamaleaui | Prop | Jake Trbojevic |
| David Fifita | Second Row | Cameron Murray |
| Felise Kaufusi | Second Row | Tariq Sims |
| Jai Arrow | Lock | Issah Yeo |
| Alexander Brimson | Interchange | Jack Wighton |
| Jaydn Su’A | Interchange | Junior Paulo |
| Moeaki Fotuaika | Interchange | Payne Haas |
| Joe Ofahengaue | Interchange | Liam Martin |
| Coen Hess | Reserve | Api Korisau |
| Ben Hunt | Reserve | Campbell Graham |
| Paul Green | Coach | Brad Fittler |
Queensland
They’ve done it several times in their history, and Queensland pulled off another upset for the ages when a team of relative no-names outplayed, outwitted and outscored a New South Wales team that was full of stars in 2020.
With Wayne Bennett at the helm, they returned a truly special performance in Game 3, and with that belief surely fresh in their minds, they will be quietly confident of another upset in North Queensland.
New coach Paul Green has selected another very solid side for his Origin debut, captained by Daly Cherry-Evans and boasting big, mobile forwards and a fast backline. There is scoring potential across the entire side, and they are capable of plenty of points.
New South Wales
Coach Brad Fitler didn’t have the answers for Bennett’s boys in 2020, and the Blues legend has made several key changes to his side for State of Origin Game 1.
The team is (understandably) stacked with Penrith Panthers, and stalwart halfback Nathan Cleary has been joined in the halves by Jarome Luai.
The prolific Tom Trbojevic returns after missing last year’s series through injury, while the Blues’ wealth of forward talent has been bolstered by names like Tariq Sims and Liam Martin.
Gelling has been the biggest issue that the Blues have faced in recent seasons; when they’ve put it all together, they’ve proven to be far too good, and if they can find some sort of consistency in 2021, they are a chance of winning the series 3-0.
State of Origin First Try Scorer
It’s a favourite NRL Betting market week in, week out, and find the first try scorer in State of Origin is always a lucrative affair.
Given the disparity in match betting, it’s no real surprise that the Blues are favourites to cross for the game’s first four-pointer and the top line of betting is tied by Josh Addo-Carr and Brian To’o, both rated $9 chances.
Kyle Feldt and Xavier Coates are the $11 top-elects for Queensland, they tie the second line of betting with James Tedesco.
The serious value looks to lie just a little further down market order, and I’m going to have something on Tom Trbojevic for the Blues and Valentine Holmes for the Maroons.
Both players will reportedly be given free-rein to float around wherever they like, and the former in particularly looks to be in career-best form.
State of Origin Game 1 Tips
Back Tom Trbojevic to score the first try at $13
Back Valentine Holmes to score the first try at $16
State of Origin Man of the Match
Another popular State of Origin market that always boasts plenty of value is Man of the Match.
Man of the Match betting is typically dominated by spine players, namely the halves and fullbacks from both states.
Unsurprisingly, Nathan Cleary has opened a $6 favourite ahead of James Tedesco ($7), Cameron Munster is rated a $7.50 chance and it’s double figures and longer for everyone else.
I’m going to go slightly left field and back both hookers, Harry Grant and Damien Cook, to be named Man of the Match.
Both players will be absolutely key to the chances of their respective states, both are cut out for Origin football, and both are proven game-breakers.
Back Harry Grant to be named Man of the Match at $13
Back Damien Cook to be named Man of Match at $15
State of Origin Same Game Multi
You can place Same Game Multis in all three State of Origin games this season, so be sure to pump up your odds by combining selections from some of your favourite markets!
We’ve had a bit of luck finding winning Same Game Multis on a social channels this season, so we’re going to reload ahead of State of Origin 1 with the Blues covering the line with Tom Trbojevic and Valentine Holmes scoring tries at any time for odds of $13.42 (at publish).
Same Game Multi
- Blues (-4.5)
- Tom Trbojevic Anytime Try ($2.60)
- Val Holmes Anytime Try ($2.80)
Odds: $13.42
