The US Open is only a week away meaning the players only have this week to fine tune their game ready for the second Major of the year at Olympic Golf Club. While many of the bigger names have opted to stay at home to practise there is still a good line up of names teeing it up this week at the St Jude Classic.
This week we are in Memphis, Tennessee at TPC Southwind where the St Jude Classic has been played since 1989. TPC Southwind is a Par 70, 7244 yard course that has tight narrow fairways, 94 sand bunkers, 10 water hazards and plenty of trees. The course was rated 9th most difficult from 51 courses played in 2011 and for the past 8 years it has continously ranked inside the Top 20 most challenging in terms of driving accuracy.
To play well at TPC Southwind you need to hit plenty of greens and keep your ball in play. Accuracy is more important than power this week. Scrambling stats will also play a key role here as past winners have all ranked highly. Another key stat to look at is birdie average as the course has ranked inside the Top 10 in five of the last six years for birdie average.
Looking at the past winners you will also notice that experience is high on the agenda. Names like Gay, Leonard, Austin, Maggert, Toms and Estes show this trend.
So who is teeing it up this week?
The favourite this week is Mr Consistent Zach Johnson. At 10/1 he is in this tournament right up to his neck. With a Win and two 2nds from his last four starts he is in career best form and will prove very hard to beat at a course that he has played well at in the past. This week will also have him primed ready for the US Open next week.
Second favourite at 11/1 is World No.2 Rory McIlroy who is trying to get his game back on track after three missed cuts. He needs to find his game in a hurry if he hopes to defend his US Open title at Olympic next week. It is not panic stations just yet as he has managed a Win and five Top 5’s from his 10 starts across the two tours so far this season. However another poor performance this week and the alarm bells are sure to start ringing.
A few other names that will be out to prove a point this week are:-
Dustin Johnson- last week was his first start in 3 months after a return from injury and he grinded out a T19th finish at The Memorial Tournament. This week he will be hoping to iron out the wrinkles in his game and put himself into contension over the weekend.
David Toms- With five Top 25’s from 12 starts this year David is playing consistent golf. He is also a two time winner of this tournament in 2003 and 2004. There is no reason why he cant join Lee Trevino on three wins in this tournament.
Graeme McDowell- The 2010 US Open Champ has had a 2nd Arnold Palmer Invitational and 2nd Volvo World Match Play this season and is currently ranked 1st in driving accuracy which will see him play well here. He is coming off a missed cut at the BMW PGA Championship.
Not far behind these guys are players like Brandt Snedeker, Robert Karlsson, Padraig Harrington, Spencer Levin, Martin Laird, Ryan Palmer and Fredrik Jacobson.
So its time to get down to my selections this week. I have three players to follow. The first one is an out and out Champion who will go very close to winning this week. If he plays to his potential I expect to see him holding the trophy on Sunday afternoon.
The other two selections are what I like to call ‘horses for courses’. Both guys love the course however they need to find their A game as they are both in a form slump at present.
So here they are:
Zach Johnson 10/1
Zach has been good to us this season and there is no reason to stop backing him now. He is coming off a win in the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. Prior to that he was T2nd in the Players Champonship. Add in another 2nd place in the RBC Heritage and it has been three sensational performances in his last four starts.
He has not missed a cut this year and it looks like he is not going to slow down any time soon. How many other guys on tour have seven Top 25 finishes from 13 starts this season? Not to mention four Top 10’s too.
Last year Zach was T32nd in this tournament and priorto that he was T12th in 2010. His only other start was in 2006 when he finished T5th.
Looking at his stats this season his game is perfect for this course. 15th in driving accuracy, 7th in strokes gained putting, 6th in scrambling and 3rd in scrambling.
I expect to see him holding the trophy on Sunday afternoon and then going on to challenge the favourites in the US Open the following week at Olympic.
Camilo Villegas 60/1
The three time tour winner has not won since his 2010 Honda Classic victory. He has only made seven cuts from 13 starts this season with his best result coming in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans where he was T18th.
He started the season well with a T19th in the Humana Challenge then followed it up with a T22nd in the Farmers Insurance Open. From there it was six missed cuts from the next ten stars.
So why is he a selection this week? It is all about his course form this week. He has made six appearances here and made all six cuts.
Camilo was T3rd here last year and was coming off a T30th and two missed cuts in his three previous starts. In 2010 he was T8th and coming off a T28th, MC and T57th. Other results have been T29th (2009), T18th (2008), T46th (2007) and T16th (2006).
It is evident from these results that he enjoys playing here and could prove to be the dark horse this week. His current stats are nothing to write home about however in the Memorial last week he was hitting 73% driving accuracy and 54% GIR so hopefully he is about to turn the corner.
Stephen Ames 175/1
Ok before you ring the men in white coats to come and take me away hear me out on this one!
The negatives are the seven missed cuts from 12 starts this season. He has also missed the cut in his last three starts. His best finish was a T16th in the Mayakoba Golf Classic which had a pretty average field.
So what are the positives? Again, it is all about the course. Stephen is a seasoned player with plenty of experience and enjoys playing here each year. From nine visits he has made seven cuts and had four Top 15 finishes.
Last year he was T8th. That came on the back of four straight missed cuts. In 2010 he was T15th and coming off T59th, T58th and a MC.
Perhaps the visit to TPC Southwind will see him find his game again. It has worked in the past and hopefully it will happen again. At the odds available it is well worth a small each way bet.
Good luck and good punting.