Suncorp Stadium will play host to Wednesday's Round 3 NRL game between Queensland Maroons and New South Wales Blues. The game kicks off at 8:10 pm with New South Wales Blues heading into the game as favourites with the bookmakers. Continue reading for our in-depth preview of the Queensland Maroons vs. New South Wales Blues game and give you our free tips and bets.

When: Wednesday July 13, 2022 at 8:10 pm

Where: Suncorp Stadium

Bet 💰: Bet On This Match HERE

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues Odds

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues Preview

The scene is set for an epic 2022 State of Origin decider, NSW bouncing back hard from a disappointing 16-10 series-opening loss at home with an emphatic 44-12 game two victory in Perth. But will the Suncorp Stadium factor tip the scales back in the favour of the underdog Queenslanders?

Despite criticism of some perceived kneejerk changes from coach Brad Fittler, the Blues addressed their game one shortcomings impressively. They dominated the middle of the field – with inspirational Jake Trbojevic’s return for NSW and Reuben Cotter’s absence for Queensland proving crucial – and Nathan Cleary produced a man-of-the-match display on the back of it.

But it wasn’t the demoralising blowout the scoreboard made it appear. The Maroons led 12-8 as Cameron Munster and Kalyn Ponga picked up where they left off in game one, before Felise Kaufusi’s sin-binning swung the match. The Blues took the ascendancy with ruthless efficiency and a weary Maroons side let in some uncharacteristically soft tries with the result already decided.

NSW has been forced into a crucial front-row change for the decider, with Payne Haas ruled out due to injury. Initial replacement Jordan McLean subsequently succumbed to injury on Thursday, handing Newcastle’s Jacob Saifiti a debut.

Game one stud Jack Wighton – rubbed out of the Perth match by COVID – was contentiously left out of the Blues’ 17, with Matt Burton and Stephen Crichton retained in the centres and fellow Origin rookie Siosifa Talakai keeping his place on the bench.

Queensland game-breakers Munster and Ponga missed their clubs’ Round 17 matches but have been passed fit. The Maroons’ only change sees 14-game veteran Kaufusi (family leave) replaced in the starting line-up by Jeremiah Nanai, with yet another Cowboy rookie, Tom Gilbert, called up to the bench for his Origin debut.

The historical Origin decider stats make daunting reading for the Blues. In 21 game three clashes where the series has still been alive, Queensland has won 14 times to NSW’s five, with two drawn (the Maroons retained the shield on both occasions as the current holders).

Meanwhile, the Blues have won just two of 12 Suncorp Stadium-hosted deciders; their victories on enemy soil came in 1994 and 2005. The Maroons’ overall record in Queensland is 38-21-1, while they have won 13 of the last 16 Origins in the Suncorp cauldron.

The last six Origins in Brisbane have produced totals of 32 points or less. The scale of the Perth result shouldn’t unduly concern the Maroons: on the seven occasions a team has lost game two by 16-plus to force a decider, they’ve either won game three or lost by six points or less.

Save for the last 25 minutes of game two, it’s been an overwhelmingly tight, hard-fought series. The Brisbane factor is anything but a myth and winning a decider there is a new frontier for this batch of Blues.

If Queensland can at least forge an even share of possession and territory via an improved engine-room effort – and the likes of Josh Papalii and Lindsay Collins are the key here – Munster, DCE, Hunt and Ponga possess the big-game chops required to ride the home crowd to victory.

Betting Update:

After winning game 2 there has been a ton of money for NSW to win game 3.

The Blues opened at $1.65 following game 2 but that was crunched and NSW are now the clear favourites at $1.35.

Queensland are the $3.30 outsiders with Ladbrokes, out from a low price of $2.25.

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