WHY YOUR STATE WILL WIN STATE OF ORIGIN I AT SUNCORP STADIUM ON WEDNESDAY

* Why Queensland will win:

1. No one is better at influencing referees than skipper Cameron Smith. Of the 18 matches in which Smith has captained Queensland, the Maroons have won the penalty count on 12 occasions. He has never lost a penalty count as skipper on home turf.

2. Experience counts. Despite Queensland’s key outs, their squad still boasts 210 Origin caps to NSW’s 108. Also, they have scored a cumulative 206 Origin points, compared with the Blues’ 100.

3. Queensland’s defence. Since Laurie Daley took over as NSW coach, the Blues have been held to just 11.3 per game.

4. Nate Myles will get the job done. Despite questions over his future, he’s always stood up for Queensland. He will play his 32nd Origin on Wednesday, going past Wally Lewis and equalling Mal Meninga as the sixth-most capped Maroons player of all time.

5. Discipline. James Maloney (21), Wade Graham (11), Andrew Fifita (10) and Josh Jackson (10) are all in the top 10 for most penalties conceded in the NRL this year.

* Why NSW will win:

1. The Lang Park hoodoo is dead. Of the past five series in which two games have been played at Suncorp Stadium, NSW have won three of them.

2. Wade Graham will torment Cooper Cronk. No one is better than Graham at pressuring playmakers and expect the Sharks hit-man to neuter the effectiveness of the Queensland No.7.

3. Mitchell Pearce’s long kicking game. No one has kicked for metres per game this year than the Sydney Roosters half, who is averaging 390m.

4. The Maroons’ outs. You can’t take 107 games worth of Origin experience out of a side (Johnathan Thurston, Greg Inglis, Matt Scott and Corey Parker) and not have an affect.

5. NSW know how to win in the big moments. NSW halves James Maloney and Pearce have proven over the last several years they can come up with big plays when the big games are on the line.