First tryscorer history suggests variety in grand finals, with hookers striking first in the past two deciders and centres in the three before that. This year, Melbourne winger Xavier Coates leads the market at $7.50, while teammates Will Warbrick and Eliesa Katoa shape as strong alternatives alongside Broncos stars Reece Walsh and Josiah Karapani.

When: Sunday October 5, 2025 at 7:30 pm

Where: Accor Stadium

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Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Odds

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Preview

The first tryscorer market is shaping as one of the most intriguing subplots of Sunday’s NRL Grand Final. Recent history suggests the middle could be the place to look – hookers have opened proceedings in the past two deciders, with Mitch Kenny (2023) and Harry Grant (2024) striking early, while centres dominated the three years prior.

This time, Melbourne flyer Xavier Coates leads the betting at $7.50 after a 20-try season, with fellow Storm winger Will Warbrick ($9.50) close behind after crossing first in the preliminary final. Brisbane’s Josiah Karapani ($9.50) and Deine Mariner ($10.50) present strong value, alongside fullbacks Reece Walsh ($9.50) and Ryan Papenhuyzen ($10.50).

Eliesa Katoa looms as a danger at $12, having scored the Storm’s opener in three of his past four games, while Broncos strike centre Kotoni Staggs ($13) can’t be overlooked. For rougher chances, Harry Grant ($23), Jahrome Hughes ($19) and Cameron Munster ($26) offer intrigue.