The Panthers, not for the first time this year, proved the bookmakers and experts wrong when rate as $4.00 chances they defeated the minor premiers and then premiership favourites the Roosters, in the first week of the final. It was the Panthers fifth win in from their past seven matches, three of which have been against top eight sides including a 22 – 16 win over the Bulldogs in round 21. The only losses the Panthers have suffered during this time have been to Melbourne and a luckless one point loss to Manly.
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There’s not one particular aspect of the Panthers game that can be singled out as the secret to their success this year, and there within lays the answer. The Panthers are consistent and competitive across the park. They work to a simple game-plan and use Jamie Soward’s kicking game effectively in both attack and defence. Simple game-plans, executed by a team in form are a hard combination for opposing teams to crack. As displayed against the Roosters, the Panthers are a competitive unit that will not go away. They’ve won five games this year by a margin of two points or less and eight games when the margin is extended to six points. There’s no question that they can match the Dogs here who love a tight contest. Having earned the week off sees the only change to the Panthers line-up being the inclusion of Adam Docker to an extended bench of six.
The Bulldogs started the finals as the outsiders of the final eight after having won only two of the final eight games of the regular season and having to face the Storm in Melbourne, in the first week of the finals.
The Bulldogs however wiped the regular season form aside and responded as Canterbury generally do when backed into a corner, producing arguably their best game of the season to defeat Melbourne 28 – 14, before also ending the season of Manly last week, 18 – 17.
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The Dogs have got off to great starts in each of the above two games and have defended their leads with typically stout Bulldog defence. Worryingly though, the Bulldogs have been failing to take advantage of theses good starts and in their past seven second half performances, have only posted a combined total of sixteen points. Against a team such as Penrith that keep coming for the entire eighty minutes, more than a good start is required here.
Whilst most teams would opt for the week off, the Bulldogs are one team that probably wouldn’t and backing up for their third straight final shouldn’t bother the uncompromising side. The Bulldogs seldom win pretty and have only posted more than 18 points per game twice since 19 this year.
Like the Panthers, the Bulldogs will be at full strength after Josh Jackson was cleared of a chicken wing tackle in last week’s game.
HEAD TO HEAD
The Panthers have won both of their games against the Bulldogs this year, once at ANZ and once at Sportingbet Stadium, by margins of 6 and 2 points. The total match points in those games were 38 and 36 points and with both teams averaging less than 20 points per game in the past two months, the Total Match Points line of 36.5, whilst low, could still remain out of reach. The Bulldogs are thriving under the pressure of finals football but punters have burned a number of times this year when underestimating the Panthers and $2.20 on offer about a team that had the week off, seems too good to pass up. Especially when considering that after the week off, they should be finishing hard whereas the Bulldogs have struggled in second half performances in the past month.
TIP: PANTHERS 1 – 12
First Try Scorer –
Panthers – James Segeyaro $17.00, Josh Mansour $11.00
Bulldogs – Mitch Brown $9.50, Josh Morris $14.00
Teams:
Penrith Panthers:
1 Matt Moylan
2 Josh Mansour
3 Dean Whare
4 Jamal Idris
5 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
6 Will Smith
7 Jamie Soward
8 Sam McKendry
9 James Segeyaro
10 Brent Kite
11 Sika Manu
12 Matt Robinson
13 Nigel Plum
Interchange
14 Adam Docker
15 Jeremy Latimore
16 Ben Murdoch-Masila
17 Lewis Brown
18 Kevin Naiqama
19 Sam Anderson
Coach: Ivan Cleary
Canterbury Bulldogs:
1 Sam Perrett
2 Corey Thompson
3 Josh Morris
4 Tim Lafai
5 Mitch Brown
6 Josh Reynolds
7 Trent Hodkinson
8 Aiden Tolman
9 Michael Ennis (c)
10 James Graham
11 Josh Jackson
12 Tony Williams
13 Greg Eastwood
Interchange
14 Reni Maitua
15 Dale Finucane
16 David Klemmer
17 Frank Pritchard
19 Moses Mbye
20 Harlan Alaalatoa
Coach: Des Hasler
News:
When the gruelling State of Origin period took hold of Canterbury midway through the year, coach Des Hasler held onto hope that his team would eventually reap the benefits of NSW’s breakthrough victory.
Provided the Bulldogs could sneak into the eight, the experience gained by halves Trent Hodkinson and Josh Reynolds against Queensland was always likely to come to the fore when an NRL premiership was going on the line.
That’s what Hasler said way back in early July and Hodkinson’s two clutch field goals in last week’s gripping semi-final win over Manly suggests the master coach has been proven correct.
Hodkinson and Reynolds both suffered an Origin hangover of sorts in the back half of the season, and Canterbury limped into the finals in seventh spot.
But the pair have thrived in the pressure games and Reynolds says he and his halfback partner are drawing on their feats for the Blues.
“It’s massive. Last year in a game like that (against Manly), your mind is throwing a million things at you,” said Reynolds.
“You’re tired, you’re fighting demons to keep going and you’ve got to make sure that you’re calm because you’re the one that’s got to set it up (the match-winning plays).
“Myself and Trent are the ones that have to eventually nail it and I feel we’ve improved a little, especially Trent.
“I feel in myself not to always go for the big play. I’m constantly working on little things in my game to improve it and be up there with the best.”
Hasler was reluctant on Wednesday to heap praise on his halves, describing their performance against Manly as “inconsistent”.
The coach has also had a major influence over the pair coming good at the right time of year.
Reynolds’ discipline had become a problem and he went to Hasler for advice.
Things weren’t going for Hodkinson like they had earlier in the year, and he too sought Hasler’s counsel.
He told both playmakers to stick to what they do best.
Captain Michael Ennis said NSW’s Origin campaign had inspired more than just Hodkinson and Reynolds.
“Tony Williams, Josh Jackson was 18th man and that’s given him a massive confidence boost, and Josh Morris as well,” he said.
“It’s certainly handy for us but we’re up against a (Penrith side) … where Brent Kite has won grand finals, he knows what to do. And so does Jamie Soward.
“It’s pretty level-pegging come Saturday night.”
