Allianz Stadium, Friday September 14.
Manly headed into last week’s Qualifying Final as favourites for their clash against Minor Premiers Canterbury and were doing the right thing by most punters leading at half time 10-6 however, the Sea Eagles continued a worrying trend of scoring little or no points in the second half (only ten second half points have been scored in their past four matches) and this allowed Canterbury to finish the better and register a 16-10 victory. The loss sees them face off against the Cowboys and they may do so with some of their big name players missing or under an injury cloud. Sea Eagles captain and centre Jamie Lyons left the field in the first half last week with a calf injury and, despite being given right up until game time to prove his fitness, looks long odds to be able to take his place in the starting line-up. As the regular goal-kicker, he’ll be sorely missed as every point will be vital here. Definitely missing the game will be his centre partner Steve Matai who copped an early plea for a reckless high tackle. It’s been a far more positive week for the Cowboys who beat Brisbane 33-16 in Townsville last week and more importantly, suffered no major injuries or judiciary issues to contend with. Jonathon Thurston, Matt Bowen and halfback Michael Morgan (who scored three of the Cowboys six tries last week) have been enjoying the benefits of playing behind a forward pack that is more than holding its own, and have helped the Cowboys to an average of 35 points in the past five matches.
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As the market suggests, there’s nothing between these two teams. Manly have clearly had the better of recent clashes between the two sides winning four of the five clashes since 2009. The most recent in Round 22, 8-6. Manly was one of the leading contenders in the Premiership market heading into the finals but after last week’s loss and an unsettled week due to injury and judiciary, they have drifted to a quote of $6.00 to win the premiership. Without regular centres present and trying to rectify the issue of poor second half performances, Manly will have the challenge in front of them. The Cowboys have big forward and should be able to hold Manly early who will throw everything at them early. Weather the storm and the Cowboys attack should be able to get their chance to convert their opportunities.
NORTH QUEENSLAND – 1-12 $2.90