The fifth Group 1 week of the VRC Melbourne Cup Carnival is for the three year old filly – the VRC Oaks. It’s a race that punters have launched into successfully over recent years with nine of the past sixteen favourites saluting. During that time, only two fillies have been successful at double-figure odds – Lolita Star (20/1 in 2000) and Bulla Borghese (12/1 in 2002). This year Yankee Rose, currently at a price of $1.65, will be the most dominate favourite since Faint Perfume won the 2009 edition, with only Tristnagh (2/5 in 1989), having started and won shorter.

Odds: View the VRC Oaks Odds

1.YANKEE ROSE – B Shinn (13)

How does she not win? A second to Global Glamour, who went on to win the Group 1 1000 Guineas, second up from a spell, before victory in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes where she beat home Swear and Prized Icon, who subsequently won the VRC Oaks. Her most recent start saw her finished third behind the best horse in the world in Winx, and finish alongside of Hartnell, who finished third in Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. Unbelievable form lines and the return now back to her own age and sex, sees only bad luck beating her.

2. MISSROCK – H Bowmann (3)

The best part of her seventh placing in the Group 1 1000 Guineas was the last 100m, before a solid third placing in Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes where she settled closer to the speed. Wakeful is always a good pointer to the VRC Oaks and from a good draw with Hugh Bowman in the saddle, she’s a leading contender to fill one of the placings.

3. SEBRING DREAM – J McDonald (14)

Came from second last and then widest to run a solid fifth (2.3 lengths) in the Ethereal Stakes before beating all bar the impressive Tiamo Grace home in Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes. Both runs have been at 2000m and read very well for this but she’s been dealt a blow with the barrier draw. Will need some luck from out there, but that’s all required for her to be running well.

4. MOQUEEN – J Collett (5)

Strong finish from last in rounding up her seven opponents to win the Listed Dulcify Quality (1600m) two starts back, earning the Anthony Cummings filly a trip to Melbourne for the G3 Ethereal Stakes. Settled midfield and found a bit of traffic on the turn before holding on for fourth (2.2 lengths) behind winner Elenora. Drawn well here in five, which should see her get every chance in the run but would’ve liked to have seen her hit the line stronger than she did last start.

5. ELENORA – D Oliver (10)

No luck at all in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes two runs back but secured the perfect run at her next start – the G3 Ethereal Stakes (2000m), where beating home Tiamo Grace – winner of Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes. Didn’t get a gem of a run/ride last time out, but won well and the lightly raced New Zealand filly is a real progressive type. No surprise to see her the main danger to Yankee Rose according to the market.

6. SMART AS YOU THINK – J Mott (15)

Came off a well beaten third placing in a BM 78 at Caulfield to surprise most with a victory at Moonee Valley at her most recent start, defeating Tears Of Joy and Tidy Prophet. Good effort against the older mares last time out, but will still need to find a bit more to be in amongst the better hopes in this race and, from gate 15, hard to see her being able to.

7. HARLOW GOLD – R Bayliss (2)

Put back-to-back wins together before a fifth placing in the 1000 Guineas and then taking on the boys in the Vase Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley. She finishing sixth (5.3 lengths) after travelling wide from the 600m and most notably, only a small margin off Prized Icon – winner of Saturday’s VRC Derby. Drawn nicely in barrier two and has the class to carry her a long way in the race.

8. BELLA SORELLASTRA – S Baster (1)

Back-maker who made good ground when third in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) before closing just as well as Sebring Dream in Ethereal Stakes (2000m), after a bit of a squeeze at the 100m mark, when sixth (2.6 lengths). Got a long back in the Wakesful from a poor draw and simply gave the leading hopes too much start at the top of the straight, holding her ground int he run home to finish tenth. Gets the rails here and overlooking last start, might be able to produce a run better than her current price suggests.

9. PEKING DUCK – C Newitt (11)

Started the short-priced favourite in a BM 64 (2035m) at Cranbourne at her most recent start and was made earn the win. Meets a much stronger field here, drawn wider out, and no surprise to see her a big price on that effort and form to date.

10. LAMMA HILTON – G Schofield (7)

Only win in ten starts to date came three runs back in a Hawkesbury Maiden (2000), which she won by a nose, and nothing to suggest in two runs since that she’s a legitimate chance of winning here.

11. LASQUETI SPIRIT – B Avdulla (9)

She was the galloper nosed out by Lamma Hilton in the Hawkesbury Maiden (2000m) two runs back – as the 6/4 favourite, and went under as the 11/4 favourite at her only start since, again at Hawkesbury, when a long neck fourth of seven in a Class 1. Plenty of easier races around for her to contest.

12. NINA PEAK – M Dee (6)

Maiden galloper five starts into her career – with the most recent outing resulting in a third placing at Cranbourne in a BM 64 (2035m) behind Peeking Duck. Struggle to finish in top half here.

13. MY GIRL CHILLY – D Yendall (8)

Won her maiden well at Donald but connections got carried away and then lined her up in the G2 Wakeful Stakes at her following starts. No surprise to see her well accounted for in that company and whilst she’ll win races moving forward, this certainly won’t be one of them.

14. RED VELVET SWING – K Mallyon (4)

Come close to registering her maiden win last start, at her eighth time to the races, when second in a Benalla Maiden. At least connections will be able to say the had an Oaks runner.

15. PENTHOUSE KITTEN – M Walker (12)

Placed her first two starts – at Bairnsdale and Mornington, showing encouraging signs for similar races ahead – but was well-beaten in the G2 Wakeful (as a 200/1 chance) at her only other run and will be a similar price again Thursday.

RACE SUMMARY –

All points to Yankee Rose and maybe the $1.65 is overs? With Group 1 form all around her – it’s impossible to select any other galloper in the race to cause an upset and defeat her. Those with the best chance of causing a boil-over are Eleonara ($10) and Sebring Dream ($11) for mine, with Bella Sorellastra the value for trifectas and exotics.

1.YANKEE ROSE

2.ELEONORA

3.SEBRING DREAM

4.BELLA SORELLASTRA