Sacred Elixir shaping up as very hard to beat in the 3yo classic after drawing the coveted rails position. Since 1999 – only three winners of the Derby have jumped from a double-digit gate. His priced immediately firmed from $3.40 into $2.90 and he looks set to join fellow New Zealanders Lion Tamer, Sangster and Monaco Consul as a winner of the Blue Ribband. It’s been eighteen years since trainer John Hawkes prepared Arena to win the Derby, but now in training partnership with his sons, he has two chances to achieved is second. Inference ($19) – who ran a great Derby trial in the Norman Robinson but drew poorly in 19, and Swear ($10) – from Spendthrift Farm, will carry his hopes. Both have showed they have the ability to be competitive in Saturday’s race.
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1. SACRED ELIXIR – Z Purton (1)
Liked the way he hit the line last week in the G2 Vase (2040m) at the Valley – the same race as last year’s Derby winner Tarzino, finished 3rd in. That made it two wins from three starts this campaign after he claimed the Guineas Prelude last month, and five from nine outings overall. Ticking over perfectly and has a stack of class – will run well.
2. PRIZED ICON – G Schofield (5)
First two runs back from a spell, third placings in the G3 Gloaming Stakes and G1 Spring Champion behind Veladero and Yankee Rose (3rd in last weekend’s Cox Plate), were good enough to suggest he’d run better than he did in last weekend’s Vase (2040m) at Moonee Valley. However, it was his first go the Melbourne way, and jockey Glyn Schofield just kept him balanced around the home turn and only urged him to the line, where he finished fifth. Might see a sharp improvement from him at the bigger Flemington track and wouldn’t dismiss off of last start.
3. SWEAR – T Berry (10)
Lightly raced, this will only be his fifth start, however having split Yankee Rose and Prized Icon at his last start in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes, his experience may prove to be irrelevant. Held his ground strongly last start, making G1 winner Yankee Rose – who was excellent when third in last weekend’s Cox Plate, produce a big finish to better him by only half a length on the line. Still on the upward spiral and in a strong yard.
4. ROCKETEER – M Zahra (19)
Registered his fourth consecutive second placing last start behind Good Standing in the G3 Norman Robinson Stakes. Unlike the winner, who led almost throughout, Rocketeer settled well back from and had to wait for the rails run to open heading into the turn, when it did, he closed rapidly to eat in to the big margin the winner had established and finish only 0.75 of a length in arrears over the line. Nice effort when considering the Derby and can’t knock his consistency but the draw does present a challenge.
5. MORVADA – S Arnold (12)
Adelaide galloper who started a massive price ($61) when he led the field in last weekend’s Vase Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley and after being headed at the top of the straight, kicked back to strongly to beat all bar Sacred Elixir home, finishing second by half a length. That was a tough effort and it took the Derby favourite to run him down. Still only the one win to his name from nine starts but, he’s only missed a place twice and last start was as a half a length as good as connections would have hoped for. Liking to roll forward and won’t be starting that long again this Saturday.
6. INFERENCE – D Dunn (20)
Won three on the trot in around country Victoria before Hawkes racing brought the well bred son of So You Think to town for the Stutt Stakes (1600m) last September where he finished fourth (3.5 lengths) to Hey Doc. Is only start since was a very good third to Good Standing and Rocketeer in the G3 Norman Robinson Stakes where, after finding traffic on the turn and having to balance up in the straight, he really flattened out the last bit to hit the line strongly and finish 1.75 lengths from the winner. Flemington should suit, but the gate (20) poses a significant challenge and will require a perfect run/ride throughout.
7. CAPTAIN DUFFY – C Newitt (2)
Blew most out of their Quaddie’s at Geelong last week when upstaging his more fancied rivals in the Geelong Classic as a $21 chance – after taking the lead mid-race and holding all challengers late to win by 1.25 lengths. It was a good win but there wasn’t a great deal of depth to this year’s Geelong Classic for mine, with the second placed horse, Hollywood Mo, still being a maiden. Will get a nice run here from gate 2, so can’t put a line through him all together, but think he’s a place chance at best.
8. SILVERA – K McEvoy (13)
Started his career in Mildura, winning a maiden, four starts back and then jumped straight into Listed class in Adelaide and performing well. However, a further step up in grade – to the G2 Vase Stakes at Moonee Valley last weekend, saw him struggle over the final stages to hold his ground, eventually running seventh and almost six lengths, behind Sacred Elixir. Can’t see him turning that margin around.
9. WINE BUSH – J Moreira (17)
Surprised most by breaking his maiden with a trip to Flemington in the UCI Stakes to starts back, before a solid fifth in the G3 Norman Robinson behind Good Standing and Rocketeer. Had to work forward early from a bad draw in the Norman Robinson to eventual find his spot outside of the leader, and that effort took a toll as they turned for home, and he only battled in the straight. Only win thus far has come unexpectedly and need to be in more solid form to be winning the Derby.
10. SO SI BON – H Bowman (11)
Caught the eye finishing hard in the Caulfield Guineas from well back in the field when fifth (1.9 lengths) to Divine Prophet, and was solid again last weekend in The Vase Stakes at Moonee Valley finishing third (1.75 lengths) to Sacred Elixir. He was under pressure turning for home last weekend but kept coming and his trainer, Robbie Laing, who won this race in 2013 with Polanski, can train them to stick. No reason given his form, to think he wouldn’t be competitive.
11. KENT – J McDonald (4)
Has settled a long way back in both of his Melbourne runs since coming down from Sydney, and whilst he’s made ground on each occasion – in the UCI Stakes and Norman Robinson, he still finished well behind the winner. Hard to recommend on those efforts.
12. HIGHLAD – C Williams (15)
Well bred type who won both of his first two races in New Zealand before crossing the Tasman and lining up a $7.00 chance in the UCI Stakes (1800m) at Flemington. He ran a credible third behind Wine Bush and Rocketeer – it was his first run in a month – but was then caught wide at his next and most recent race, when ninth in the Norman Robinson (2000m). Was a spent force at the furlong last time out and although his from an astute yard, can’t see him getting the right run from fifteen here either.
13. BEACH LIFE – N Hall (8)
Registered his maiden win three runs back at Mornington before having no luck in the run and being posted six and seven deep rounding the turn in the UCI Stakes (1800m) where he battled home for ninth. It was a similar story in the Norman Robinson Stakes were he started his run before the turn, sweeping around the outside, and sticking on well behind winner Good Standing – who led and dictated terms, by 2.75 lengths. Should get a sweeter run than his past two from this draw and would be a legitimate each-way hope.
14. TUMULTUOUS – B Melham (18)
He was ok behind Yankee Rose and Swear in the G1 Champion Stakes and then came from a long way back to run fourth in the Geelong Classic (2200m) behind Captain Duffy. Looks like the trip will pose no problems for this son of Fastnet Rock but, from his wide draw, he’ll again be giving them a big start – and this time, much smarter horses.
15. HOLLYWOOD MO – S Baster (6)
Still a maiden after seven starts but came closest he has to breaking that status last start when second to Captain Duffy in the Geelong Classic (2200m), finishing 1.25 lengths in arrears. Had his chance last start and for him to be winning here – needed to see him get the job done last start.
16. ALL OUT OF LOVE – (9)
Settled well back from a wide gate in the UCI Stakes and never threatened, before settling in a lovely spot in the Geelong Classic, but only maintaining his position in the run home – finishing fifth. Cant’ be winning this on those efforts.
EMERGENCIES – (all at $51 or longer)
17. PETER JOHN – M Walker
18. ANAHEIM
19. SHINE TAK STAR
20. ZOFF MAN
RACE SUMMARY –
The last piece of the puzzle seemed to fit into place perfectly for Sacred Elixir at Wednesday barrier draw, coming up with inside gate. It’s a relatively short run into the first turn and Zac Purton, will ensure his mount holds a good position. Liked the way he ran through the line at Moonee Valley and he’s the one they need to beat. The barrier draw wasn’t as kind to Rocketeer and Inference – both rated a strong chance after great Derby trials in the Norman Robinson. It has seen the price for each blowout, but just can’t pass it up and will be having something each-way just in case. Beach Life comes out of the same race, and had a more difficult run than the above, he’s good value each-way as is Swear and Prized Icon. Swear has produced good results in a short period of time and prepared to forgive Prized Icon’s run at Moonee Valley, and expecting a stronger showing at Flemington from a good draw.
1. SACRED ELIXIR
2. INFERENCE
3. BEACH LIFE
4. SWEAR
