The feature race of the day is the time-honoured Turnball Stakes. A number of today’s seventeen have had several runs back from spells and are out to a distance that should see them produce their best – which has resulted in a very competitive market where the early favourite – Green Moon – is a $4.80 quote.
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1. WINCHESTER
He made good ground in his Australian debut when ninth (beaten 5.4) in the G1 Underwood Stakes. All of his overseas form has been at around the 2400m and will be giving most a start here from his wide gate.
Odds: $81.00
2. NIWOT
Has had two runs back this preparation finishing well down the track in both the G2 Memsie and G1 Underwood Stakes. His last two wins have come at 2500m and 3200m under handicap conditions and happy to wait for him to get to similar conditions.
Odds: $81.00
3. DECEMBER DRAW
He was first up of an extended lay-off when eighth of thirteen in the Makybe Diva (beaten 3.8). Took benefit from that run and beat all bar the smart Ocean Park in the G1 Underwood Stakes last start. 2000m third up here looks ideal and has won four of his five starts this track.
Odds: $6.00
4. ETHIOPIA
AJC Derby winner in the Autumn who returned to race a fortnight ago in the Data Tan Chin Nam at Moonee Valley. The step up to 2000m will help as will the spacious Flemington circuit but still needs to prove himself under these conditions.
Odds: $17.00
5. REKINDLED INTEREST
Pretty much D-day for this bloke who has always shown above average ability but still only has three wins from eighteen starts to his name. Average first up in the G2 Memsie and better when third to Happy Trails and Green Moon in the Dato Tan three weeks back, suggesting the 2000m will suit.
Odds: $13.00
6. HAPPY TRAILS
He has won two of three this time in including his last start victory in the Data Tan at Moonee Valley. Has been racing handier this prep than what he had done in the past and will no doubt be handy from his inside draw. Despite not having tackled this trip since being a 3yo, he couldn’t be any better prepared for this race.
Odds: $12.00
7. ZABEELIONAIRE
Returned to racing in the G2 Makybe Diva, finishing ninth (beaten 5.1) and then produced a better effort of the longer journey of the G1 Underwood Stakes. The step out to 2000m and fancy we’re yet to see the best of him but under these conditions, think he’ll need it longer still.
Odds: $51.00
8. SOUTHERN SPEED
Caulfield Cup winning mare who has had four runs in this prep and been very good in each of them. Her latest effort was a closing fourth (beaten 2.5) in the Underwood Stakes. Her draw today does her no favours but on form only, can’t be left out.
Odds: $8.00
9. VOILA ICI
Former Italian galloper now under the guidance of Peter Moody who has had two starts in Australia, with his latest, a fantastic effort when leading all bar the last bit in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield. Will push forward again and drops 3.5kgs on that run and will be fitter again. Genuine chance.
Odds: $7.00
10. LINTON
He caught the eye first up in a G2 race at Moonee Valley behind Happy Trails over 1600m. The trip he today will suit and has placed four of his seven attempts at this track but at an early quote of $8.50, I’ll be happy for him to get another run under his belt.
Odds: $9.00
11. GREEN MOON
Ran a great race first up in the G2 Memsie Stakes and than was only out-bobbed on the line by Happy Trails in the Data Tan Chin Nam at Moonee Valley. This trip, of which he has won three from four, looks ideal third up.
Odds: $4.80
12. MOUDRE
After seventeen months off the racing scene, returned in the G2 Makybe Diva (1600m) and ran a fantastic third, finishing the race off well here at Flemington early this month. Hasn’t raced since but has been kept up to the mark with a good hit-out in Cranbourne trial a fortnight back. Pity about the draw, but look for him getting home.
Odds: $15.00
13. MR. CHARD
He has struggled to make an impact at any of his first three runs in this prep with only a slightly better effort last start when holding his ground in the run home for sixth (beaten 4.7) behind Happy Trails. It’s hard to see him winning this.
Odds: $151.00
14. SANAGAS
Former international galloper now with Bart Cummings who has had two starts since arriving in Australia – thirteenth (beaten 8.3) in the Memsie Stakes and tenth (beaten 5.9) in the Underwood. With those runs under his belt he now gets to a distance that’s form more to his liking and whilst a better effort can be expected, it’ll be a surprise to see him winning today.
Odds: $101.00
15. SNEAK A PEEK
Like his stable-mate Voila Ici, this 5yo was originally based in Italy. He’s had two Australian starts and the latest, a fifth behind Happy Trails and Green Moon was a pleasing effort. He gets to the right kind of distance range now and off the back of last start, might be some kind of chance at $13.00
Odds: $13.00
16. ZURELLA
She won the G2 Let’s Elope well first up against her own sex before stepping out in the G3 Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield a fortnight ago. Only a run on that occasion and she won’t find this any easier, she’s been a big drifter in early markets – $11 out to $17
Odds: $15.00
17. SEVILLE
Another import that has had four starts for Trainer Robert Hickmott since commencing his Australian career in April. The best of those four runs was clearly his latest where he stuck on for a fifth (beaten 2.8 lengths) behind Folding Gear. That was his first run at 2000m in Australia and will be better for it but aiming a little high here.
Odds: $61.00
OVERVIEW
Any number of these runners could take out this event without surprising. Green Moon has yet to run a bad race in Australia and his last start effort was perfect preparation for this. December Draw ($6.50) was much better second up and will be at peak fitness now and loves the Flemington circuit. Combine this with the likelihood that he’ll get a nice run from gate three and he’ll be in the mix. But at $9.00, I like Voila Ici eachway. Very good last start when second to Ocean Park and wouldn’t have to improve much at all to be well in the mix here. Rolls along from his good gate and should be in it for a long way, especially if leaders have been having a good time of it.