A cracking field of seventeen will line up for this year’s Toorak Handicap, among them, seven individual Group 1 winners. Solzhenitsyn, who won this race last year defeating Spirit Song (More Joyous fourth), is back to defend his title and is also the early favourite at $4.40. Only two other runners are currently quoted less than $10.00, they being Linton – who produced a great first up run in the Rupert Clarke and Speediness, who also finished fourth in the same race but has drawn wide here.
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1. LINTON – J Mott (2)
The John Sadler trained runner produced a fantastic effort first up in the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) off a sixteen week spell. He sat fifth, three wide with no cover, throughout the race but was still there at the finish, running fifth and finishing only 1.1 lengths from the winner Rebel Dane. Can only be better for having had that run and has to rated a genuine chance off that effort.
2. SOLZHENITSYN – N Rawiller (7)
Queensland Trainer Rob Heathcote is taking the same path that led to success in last year’s race with this horse. As the 7yo did last year, he tackles this race third up from a spell and comes off a close up placing in the G1 Rupert Clarke. He did only have 53kgs last year – assigned 58kgs this year but, hasn’t missed a place in three starts at this track and will be afforded every chance by Rawiller from the good draw.
3. LUCKYGRAY – D Dunn (6)
After finding his opposition too slick over the Flemington 1200m of the G3 Bobbie Lewis first up, the 6yo by Bradbury’s Luck was found wanting when contesting the WFA G1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) at his next start and finished ninth of thirteen. Given four weeks off after the Memsie, it was a better effort when back to the handicap conditions of the Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m). He tracked eventual winner Rebel Dane as they rounded the turn but, whilst he didn’t have the zip to go with him, he continued to work home steadily and finished 1.9 lengths sixth. Better for that run again and out to the mile suits.
4. DECEMBER DRAW – M Rodd (14)
He produced an excellent effort resuming off an eleven month spell when four lengths behind winner Foreteller in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m). He was given plenty of time to recover from that run by his trainer Mark Kavanagh and returned three weeks late in the Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m). He got back in the run and just didn’t have the ping required from the home turn but, was guided to the line under hands and heels riding from Rodd only. Will strip much fitter for that run and back out to this distance is also in his favour. A pity the barrier draw was unkind but not to be underestimated.
5. FERLAX – D Oliver (17)
Last season’s G1 Australian Guineas winner, the son of Pentire returned to racing as a 4yo in August with pleasing efforts in both the G3 Aurie’s Star (1200m) and G1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) where he finished second (beaten 2 ¼ lengths) behind Atlantic Jewel. Off those runs he stepped out a 7/1 chance in the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes last start and just held is spot in the run to the line, finishing seventh and just over two lengths from Rebel Dane. That run indicated he’s now ready for longer but he will find it tough from the widest draw.
6. SPEEDINESS – J McDonald (16)
Produced a strong finish to claim the G3 Bobbie Lewis Stakes first up from a spell, defeating Albrecht (3rd) and Rebel Dane (4th). That win made seven victories from only twenty-three starts for the Testa Rossa 6yo and he went within a half length of increasing that strike rate with a fast finishing third to Rebel Dane in the Rupert Clarke Stakes last start. He could not have been more impressive at either run back this time in and despite the wide draw, going too well to leave out of selections.
7. BUDRIGUEZ – L Nolen (15)
He was in a real purple patch of form during the autumn and claimed the G3 Carlyon Cup, G2 Blamey Stakes (dead heated with Puissance De Lune) and the G3 Victoria Handicap, all in the space of four starts. The 7yo by Al Maher has returned this season with three runs back from a spell but judging by those efforts, he’s well off repeating the performances of last preparation. He camped on the speed in each run but has quickly been accounted for in the straight and has finished seventh of nine, eleventh of fourteen and at his last start, in the G1 Rupert Clarke, fourteen of sixteen. Just not going well enough at the moment.
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8. YOSEI – J Maskiell (4)
It’s been 25 starts and over two years now since this mare last visited the winner’s stall. Given, she has performed well at the top level since that victory – including a close up fourth in the G1 Emirates Stakes (1600m) behind Happy Trails last spring, her most recent efforts however have not been encouraging. She was well beaten in both the Listed Drummond Golf (1200m) and G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes and would have to produce a significant form improvement to be winning here.
9. LORD OF BRAZIL – S Baster (12)
The Darren Weir trained runner improved with each run he had when he was last in work. He claimed seven of his fourteen starts and progressed from Echuca BM 72 to be Group 3 placed during the one prep. He appears to have picked up where he left off judging by his two good efforts since returning from a spell a month ago. He finished well late in the Listed Drummond Golf (1200m) and was really warming up from the back of the field (under 60kgs) when claiming third behind Blackie in a Open Handicap (1500m). Big step up in class but third up, to a mile, with a weight drop of 5.5kgs, he’s capable of a cheeky effort.
10. MOURO – G Boss (10)
Originally from France, this lightly raced 5yo from the Tony McEvoy stables, rounded out his last preparation with a win in the Listed Rowley Mile at Hawkesbury (Speediness third) before being nosed out by Speediness in the Scone Cup (1600m). He was spelled after his Scone Cup effort and indicated with an impressive trail win, that he was ready for his return to racing in an Open class race over 1400m at Caulfield. He was finishing hard late in between runners and ran second, beaten a half length behind 100/1 winner, Out of Coober. Drops 4kgs on his first up run and from six starts this trip, can boast two wins and four seconds. Will be finishing hard late and has the best big race jockey onboard.
11. CENTENNIAL PARK – C Newitt (1)
After finishing off the pace in the G2 Warwick Stakes and G2 Theo Marks, the David Payne representative lined up in the G2 Shannon Stakes (1500m) at Rosehill at his most recent start as a 20/1 chance. He appreciated being back on the track where he has claimed six of his eight starts and went within head of making it seven from nine, when second to Rain Drum. Ran thirteenth in this race last year under 52.5kgs (54.5kgs this year) and a good draw after similar lead up form.
12. TREVIERES – K McEvoy (8)
A French 6yo by Gold Away with a record of six wins from twenty-five starts including three from his last four. His latest effort, nine weeks ago now in early August, resulted in a comfortable two length win over a mile and sixteen rivals in the smart time of 1.34.57. Solzhenitsyn won this race last year in 1.35.25. His trainer Mark Nigge, will have the assistance of his daughter Stephanie, who oversaw the preparations of Melbourne Cup winner Americain and Herbert Power winner, Shewardi. Best to treat him cautiously and he firmed quickly in betting when markets were first released Wendnesday ($26 – $15).
13. DANY THE FOX – D Yendall (13)
Winner of the Kilmore Cup (1600m) last prep, the 5yo by Danroad returned to racing three starts ago with an excellent effort, closing from the tail of the field, to run third (beaten 1.2 lengths) behind Thy in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes (1200m). He backed that up with another strong effort, this time from up on the pace, when out-bobbed on the line by Shoreham in the Listed Sofitel Stakes (1400m). He then stepped up to G1 level and the Rupert Clarke Stakes where, after being afforded every opportunity in the run, he found the calibre of rivals too strong late and finished tenth of sixteen. This race is no easier.
14. MUTUAL TRUST – C Symons (9)
A former imported galloper now with the David Hayes stable, the 6yo by Cacique had a brief and disappointing initial campaign in Australian earlier this year. He appears to have appreciated the opportunity to acclimatise and, since returning from a spell of twenty-one weeks, has produced two very good efforts. The first was a fast finishing eighth (only beaten 1 ¾ length) in the Listed Sofitel Stakes (1400m) before again getting back to a clear last in the G1 Rupert Clarke (1400m) and doing his best work late, finishing 3.7 lengths from Rebel Dane. The step up to the mile, a distance where his previous overseas form was strong, will be a benefit but he can’t afford to get as far back as he did last start.
15. BLACKIE – D Lane (5)
Off a nine week break, the 6yo was good late in the G3 Bobbie Lewis (1200m) at Flemington – a race that has been a very good form reference since – hitting the line in good style to finish only 2 ¼ lengths behind Speediness. He then appreciated the step up to 1500m and the drop in grade, when demolishing an Open class field at Moonee Valley a fortnight ago by 3 ½ lengths. That was an impressive win and whilst he takes a big step up in class here, he is clearly going very well.
16. TRANSPORTER – (3)
Queensland galloper who was strong during his home-state’s winter carnival this year but, since coming south and attempting some of the better races in New South Wales, has found himself a little off the pace. At his most recent start, he got back to last in the Shannon Stakes, a race dominated by those handy to the speed and was ok late, finishing eighth (beaten 3 ½ lengths). He drops from 57kgs to 54.5kgs here but doubt that will be enough for him to found the improvement needed to win here.
17. BASS STRAIT – C Schofield (11)
Showed plenty of promise as a 3yo last season, including a fifth in the G1 Australian Guineas and fourth in the G2 Alister Clark and the son of Holy Roman Emperor has returned as a 4yo, ready to fulfil that potential. He produced an eye-catching effort second up in the G2 Dato’Tan Chin Nam (1600m) with an unlucky fifth (beaten 1 length) behind Fiorente before being far too good for his rivals in a Caulfield Open class race (1700m) last start. Can’t knock his form and will have his fair share of supporters.
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RACE OVERVIEW
A fantastic race and a great curtain raiser to the Caulfield Guineas that will follow. Punters have a good record in this race. Only two winners in the past ten years (Allez Wonder 2009 and Roman Arch 2003 both at $41.00) have been successful at double figure odds. Of the four runners in this field currently at single figure odds, will stick with Speediness -despite the wide draw. His two runs back have been first class and he is going well enough to overcome the obstacle the gate presents. There is a real sense of history repeating itself with Solzhenitsyn given the comparison of his lead-up efforts this year and last. Of those over double figures, Mouro, Luckgray and December Draw appeal most. Mouro has solid form around Speediness last prep and returned with a slashing effort. The two remaining runners both have a touch of class about them; they will have derived plenty of benefit from their last starts in the Rupert Clark and, the step up to the mile.
- SPEEDINESS
- SOLZHENITSYN
- MOURO
- DECEMBER DRAW
