Thousand Guineas Tips, Odds and Field Preview – 2016

Thousand Guineas Tips, Odds and Field Preview – 2016

The Thousand Guineas (1600m) will be the first race for most of these three-year-old fillies to be tried at the mile. Trainers will be using the Group 1 Guineas as a tester for next month’s Victoria oaks (2500m). Foxplay is the Guineas favourite, but Harlow Gold, bred on staying lines, heads Oaks betting.

Thousand Guineas Field Preview


Hinchenbrook filly, from Western Australia, won five of seven starts.
Why she can: Won at Group 2 level before heading east. Two Melbourne runs have been sound. Latest she led in the Tranquil Star (1400m) and fought on strongly for seventh, beaten 2.15 lengths to Legless Veuve.
Why she can’t: She tried hard last start but was found wanting. The extra 200m might find her out again.



MISSROCK – Odds ($13)

She won the Debutant Stakes at this track in October last year.
Why she can: Had a forget run last start when she ran into a traffic jam in the straight. She was last on straightening and rider was able to give her just one back hander, before finishing sixth to Legless Veuve in the Tranquil Star (1400m). Extra distance here is a plus.
Why she can’t: Not a lot of negatives, but she is meeting tougher opposition this time.



GLOBAL GLAMOUR – Odds ($5.50)

Kerrin McEvoy is the new rider for this filly, trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott.
Why she can: Won last week’s Group 1 Flight Stakes (1600m) at Randwick. Class filly and proven at the mile.
Why she can’t: On a seven-day back-up and has also had to travel south.



FOXPLAY – Odds ($2.60)

Chris Waller’s filly has won her only two starts as a three-year-old.
Why she can: Won two starts since resuming. Was locked away last start, but once saw daylight she powered to the line to win the Group 2 Tea Rose Stakes. Handles any going and is looking for 1600m.
Why she can’t: She may not handle the track. Her last two wins have been on her home course at Randwick and she goes anti-clockwise for the first time on a tricky track.


I AM A STAR – Odds ($15)

Country trained filly by I Am Invincible.
Why she can: Turned in a respectable run in the Tranquil Star for fourth, coming from well back. She was slightly held up and finished just 1.35 lengths from Legless Veuve.
Why she can’t: She didn’t hit the line as well as she could have last start, once she found clear running. Only plugged late really and this is tougher.


SAMARA DANCER – Odds ($21)

She won the Blue Diamond Prelude as a two-year-old.
Why she can: She should be ready to produce best after two runs from a spell. She was beaten 3.4 lengths in the Tranquil Star (1400m), after racing near the rear early and middle stages.
Why she can’t: Has to be a doubt of running a strong 1600m.


LEGLESS VEUVE – Odds ($13)

Trained on the track by Stuart Webb.
Why she can: Won last two starts. Most recent she beat several of her rivals in the Tranquil Star. Drawn well and should be able to find a nice spot close to the lead.
Why she can’t: Had all the favours last start and extra 200m might test her.


LA LUNA ROSSA – Odds ($15)

This Kiwi filly won the Group 1 NZ Sires Produce in April.
Why she can: Sure to be improved after her second-up run in the Tranquil Star at this track. She was cramped for room early in the straight, but finished the race off in good fashion and will be better suited if the track is rain affected. Damien Oliver adds to the positives.
Why she can’t: Hard to knock her, possibly one or two better at this stage.


SWORD OF LIGHT – Odds ($26)

She won the Group 3 Blue Diamond Prelude as a two-year-old.
Why she can: She should be peaking. At her fourth run from a break she was third to Legless Veuve in the Tranquil Star. Barrier four will see her take up a prominent position.
Why she can’t: had the run of the race last start and didn’t do enough to suggest 1600m will help her chances.


LEOTIE – Odds ($17)

She won a Sale Maiden in July.
Why she can: Comes into this race after last start win in Benchmark 78 at Caulfield.
Why she can’t: Facing too big a class rise.


SEBRING DREAM – Odds ($34)

She won over 1400m at Flemington before a spell.
Why she can: Fitter for two runs this campaign. She ran an even racer when fifth to Legless Veuve in the Tranquil Star (1400m).
Why she can’t: Meeting tougher opposition and she didn’t show enough last start to suggest that 1600m can help her improve.


HARLOW GOLD – Odds ($13)

By boom sire Tavistock, $5.00 favourite for the Victoria Oaks.
Why she can: Won last two starts in impressive fashion. She comes into this race after 1.25 length win in Caulfield three-year-old Handicap (1600). Bred to stay and will be hitting the line hard again.
Why she can’t: She is a dead-seat Oaks (2500m) filly and may be looking for more ground than the 1600m here.


SMART AMELIA – Odds ($41)

Sydney trained three-year-old, prepared by James Cummings.
Why she can: Difficult to find reasons for her to break maiden status here.
Why she can’t: Hasn’t done enough.


PEEKING DUCK – Odds ($101)

Why she can: She has a gear change and will wear a cheeker, but difficult to make a case for her.
Why she can’t: Outclassed.



Flemington trained filly, yet to open her account.
Why she can: She appreciated the 1600m in the Edward Manifold and ran on well for fifth.
Why she can’t: She’s had plenty of tries this preparation and hard to see her breaking through in Group 1 company.


Best Bet

  1. Foxplay
  2. La Luna Rossa
  3. Missrock

Value Tip

  1. Harlow Gold
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