Thousand Guineas Tips – 2015

Mick Price will be hoping for a case of history repeating itself when he saddles up leading contender Badawiya in Saturday’s 1000 Guineas at Caulfield. Price last won this race with Gallica back in 2008 who, like Badawiya did impressively last Sunday, won the G2 Edward Manifold at her run prior. Badawiya is $6.00 in early markets with Pasadena Girl the current favourite at $4. If successful, it will not only continue Hugh Bowman’s exceptional start to the season, but also give him back-to-back wins in this race after piloting Amicus to victory for Chris Waller last year. Miss Gunpowder will join champion fillies Alinghi and Serious Speed as the only runners in the past fourteen years to have starts from a gate 10 or wider.
She’s rated a $6.00 chance to do so and will be hoping to dominate from the front again, just as she did when successful in the Guineas Prelude a fortnight ago.

 

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1. PASADENA GIRL – J Bowman (7)

Excellent second when resuming behind Stay With Me, whom she gave a fitness edge and 2.5kgs to, before finishing fifth in the Guineas Prelude (F), finishing 2.4 lengths behind Miss Gunpowder. She settled three back on the fence as they straightened and spent a majority of the straight angling for a run wider out which, when it came at the 100m, saw her finish off well in a race dominated by the leader. Can’t knock either run or overall record and will be right in this.

 

2. MISS GUNPOWDER – C Williams (11)

Adelaide galloper who made it four wins from only five starts when leading all the way in the Guineas Prelude (F) a fortnight ago. Shot straight to the front and dictated the pace last time out, holding all challengers at bay to win by a length. Drawn wider out here and steps up to the mile for the first time but is highly promising and could not have done any more than she has to date.

 

3. SAGARONNE – B Shinn (3)

Settled three back the fence from the inside gate first up in the Listed Atlantic Jewel (1200m) but had no luck at all from that position, and would ignore her eleventh placing. Drew widest in the field of ten in the Prelude (F) and settled at the tail of the field. Made her run leaving the six hundred and was carried wide rounding the turn. She battled in the straight to run ninth (6.5 lengths). Hasn’t had a great deal of luck either run in and could be a sharp improve her from a draw that will see her get every chance. Ran second to Press Statement only previous start of a mile in the G1 JJ Atkins at Doomben.

 

4. JAMEKA – M Zahra (9)

Real eye-catching effort first up when from last at the top of the straight, the Myboycharlie filly rattled home out wide to claim third (1.1 lengths) behind Stay With Me. Good again only run since when chasing home Miss Gunpowder in the Prelude (F) after having every chance in the run. Going well in the right lead-up race and just needs a touch of luck from nine to continue that form.

 

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5. TAKE PRIDE – P Moloney (5)

Ran third to Petite Filous at Flemington before dominating the G3 Champagne Stakes field around the Valley circuit from the lead position, winning by three lengths with Secret Agenda second. Will try to do the same here and although going well, will find this grade harder and jumping from six furlongs to the mile also a concern.

 

6. BADAWIYA – C Newitt (10)

Should’ve finished closer than the seventh (3.5 lengths) she did behind Stay With Me in the Listed Atlantic Jewel but has made a mends for that run since, winning a BM 64 (1400m) and then, in most impressive style, last Sunday’s G2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) at Flemington. Settled three back in the running line last week but really put them away inside the last furlong, winning by two lengths easing down. Improving at a rapid rate and off of the quality of her last start win has to be a serious contender here.

 

7. STAY WITH ME – D Dunn (4)

The Hayes/Dabernig trained filly bolted in maiden company first up from a spell before a sweeping run around the field saw her claim the Listed Atlantic Jewel by a comfortable 1.5 lengths at her following outing. Her only run since was in the Guineas Prelude (F) where she was forced to make her run three wide from the 600m, that left her a bit flat in the straight as she battled away to run sixth (3.4 lengths). Up an extra 200m here but should get a sweeter run in transit from gate four. Her dam Miss Finland won this race in 2006.

 

8. PAYROLL – J Cassidy (1)

Although resuming over an unsuitable 1100m of the Cap D’Antibes, did expect to see much more from her than she produced when thirteenth and over nine lengths behind winner, Petit Filous. A much improved effort last start though in the Prelude (1400m) where she was caught deep and worse than midfield before being allowed to go forward to sit outside of the leader and eventual winner, Miss Gunpowder before the turn. Battled on well for second (length) but found herself in the right spot last time turning for home given the way the race was run and for a filly that gets back, the inside may not be an advantage.

 

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9. ALASKAN ROSE – S Arnold (6)

Made it two from two when taking out a BM 78 here at Caulfield late August with her only run since seeing her finish eighth of ten in the Guineas Prelude. It was her first run for four weeks but still, to be winning here, needed to see much more from her then.

 

10. SUPER CASH – K McEvoy (2)

An excellent second, coming from well back in the field, to Petit Filous in the Listed Cap D’Antibes at Flemington two runs back before finding the leader’s (Miss Gunpowder) back in the Guineas Prelude and sticking on for fourth (1.4 lengths). Needs to improve again to be winning but will get the right run from the inside gate to do so.

 

11. DON’T DOUBT MARLEY – C Parnham (8)

Her effort first up from a brief break when fourth in the G3 Quezette Stakes, suggested that we’d see more than we have from this Robbie Griffith trained filly than we have in two runs since. She finished fourth in the Listed Atlantic Jewel and then last of ten in the Guineas Prelude. Form needs to be improving heading into a race like this, not tapering off.

 

RACE OVERVIEW –

Miss Gunpowder leads with Take Pride and Super Cash handy. Miss Gunpowder set a favourable tempo last time out and may be working a bit harder here. That will bring those who finished behind her in the Prelude such as Pasadena Girl and the improving Jameka right into calculation. She’s proven this level over a mile, good in two runs back so happy to go with Pasadena Girl at the $4.00. Badawiya the big danger for mine, she’s really blossomed the past month and although this is a step up again in terms of class, she won with something to spare last time out.

1. PASADEAN GIRL

2. BADAWIYA

3. JAMEKA

4. MISS GUNPOWDER

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