Caulfield racecourse will host Thousand Guineas day on Wednesday in which we see the Group 1 edition for the fillies after Long John took out the colt and geldings Caulfield Guineas on Saturday and Darley are set to make it a double with Guelph being the $1.40 favourite in the race in the Field. On the day there is also the Group 3 Snowhite Maintenance Classic and the Listed Heading Out Hair & Beauty Stakes.

There was a bit of rain around Melbourne in the last few days although it has seemed to clear up today and that will be the same tomorrow so the track should again be a Dead condition come race time.

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Race One: Mccain’s Foods (bm78) 1600m  Form Guide

Back Me: Mantener La Fe was super unlucky last start and he made up a stack of ground late when he was in the clear. He has placed at all three of his career starts and he continues to get better at each run. Currently a $7.50 chance on Wednesday and he should be right in the finish at good odds.
Don’t Back Me: Googly Gander won by a big margin last start but the form around that race is pretty poor. This is a much tougher race and i doubt he has the ability to win.
Big Danger: No Equivalent sprouted wings late to win last start and he has been getting better and better with increase in distance. He again goes up in distance here and comes out of the Kavanagh stable so has to be respected and kept safe.
Roughie:Bearish flew home on debut and the extra distance here will only increase her chances. Opened and is currently a $16 chance in betting and i think she is a massive chance in the race as there looks to be decent speed in the race despite the small field.

$500 Mantener La Fe Free Bet

Race Two: Bmw (bm84) 2400m Form Guide

Back Me: Mr Jazz put in a massive run last start in a good form race when hitting the line well late. He has drawn the inside barrier here which will require a bit of luck although it will allow him to have a good run throughout and his turn of foot late should prove too much for this field. Currently a $9 in betting and he has attracted some good bets so i think he will shorten come race time.
Don’t Back Me: Correggio stepped up to the 2400m last start and he only looked to just plug at the finish which makes me concerned for this race on Wednesday. So i will be leaving him out at the odds.
Big Danger: Junoob is the class runner of the race and deserving favourite. His run last start at Rosehill behind some good horses was encouraging and he finds a much easier field on Wednesday. He will have to carry the top weight but his class should prevail and he will be tough to beat.
Roughie: Packing Empire drops 5kg on Wednesday from his previous three runs and draws a barrier which he hasn’t this preparation. He didn’t get much clear running last start and when he did he hit the line well. This is a bit of a step up in class but he is lightly raced so will improve and he is now weighted and drawn to win so the $13 on offer looks great value.

$500 Mr Jazz Free Bet

Race Three:  Race-tech Subzero (bm90) 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Misty Eyes has had three starts over the distance for three wins. He was massive last start when hitting the line well over unsuitable distance and his second up record suggests he will be at his best on Wednesday. He has drawn well in barrier 3 and will be hard to beat at good odds of $7.
Don’t Back Me: Live For Today won by big margins at his two wins but that was against pretty poor opposition. He was well beaten last start and against this field and from a wide barrier i wont be taking the $4.
Big Danger: Specter was very good first up and this is an easier race than he has faced in recent starts. He has been weighted well and has drawn a good barrier in the race. He will likely start quite short but he is the horse to beat in the race.
Roughie: Auld Burns will find this race much easier than he has raced in throughout his career. He has an okay first up record and his class could get him over the line here at big odds of $19.

$500 Misty Eyes Free Bet

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Race Four: Race-tech Subzero (bm90) 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Sharalam had no luck last start Caulfield and went to the line untested. His second up run last preparation was very good despite being beaten by a distance, he only found space late and hit the line well. He has been racing in some very good races and he will find this easier. Will need luck from the barrier but if he can he will be right in the finish at very good odds of $8.50.
Don’t Back Me: Rhythm To Spare goes up in weight here and has drawn poorly in barrier 12. He is currently $4.20 in betting which i think is way under the odds in what is a very competitive race. Was well beaten at Caulfield last start when having Cardiac arrhythmia which is another concern.
Big Danger: Hosting was luckless in Sydney last start where he went back in a slowly run race, found trouble and still was able to make up a stack of ground late. He will get an easy run in transit here but he will need a bit of luck, if he can get it than he is definitely the horse to beat.
Roughie: Xavi was heavily backed at Moonee Valley last start although he didn’t show much in the run. Happy to forgive him on that occasion and with a big drop in weight on Wednesday and from a good barrier i think he is a big chance at double figure odds.

$500 Sharalam Free Bet

Race Five: Biretta & Busby Hatmaker (84) 2000m Form Guide

Back Me: Angola hit the line well enough over 1700m last start and the step up in distance here will suit him perfectly. He has drawn a good barrier in 5 and will get the run of the race. He beat some good horses last preparation and will start at big odds on Wednesday with his current price being $18 in betting.
Don’t Back Me: Hunger has been well backed at his past two starts but didn’t really show anything for those who backed him. He goes up in weight here and has drawn a wide barrier so is likely to be posted wide.
Big Danger: Electric Fusion won first up at Moonee Valley over an unsuitable distance in a decent form race. He was only going to get better for the run and the extra distance will suit. He has drawn well in the big field and is likely to settle mid field and he looks the horse to beat at $5.
Roughie: Backbone has a good second up record winning two from three and his record over the distance is a gain good. He will carry the top weight in the race but he has drawn well so he should get a good run throughout. He raced well first up and over the longer distance on Wednesday we will see him be very competitive at long odds of $17.

$500 Angola Free Bet

Race Six: Biretta & Busby Hatmaker (84) 2000m Form Guide

Back Me: Guelph is a three time Group 1 winner who will be up against inferior competition in the race. She was super impressive last start when travelling wide throughout and putting the field to bed early in the straight to race away with a big win. She will start odds on but i can’t see her getting beaten.
Don’t Back Me: May’s Dream put away a much less classy field last start but against the likes of Guelph i doubt she will be doing that again.
Big Danger: Gregers has had four runs this preparation for three wins so you can’t really fault her. She finds a very talented filly on Wednesday but if she puts a hoof wrong i expect her to be the one to capitalise on it.
Roughie: Miracle To Me is coming out of a good race at Flemington when hitting the line well behind Paximedia. She finds a tough field here but at $51 in betting she is a good each way bet.

$500 Guelph Free Bet

Race Seven: Snowhite Maintenance Classic 1600m Form Guide

Back Me: Zonza is a lightly raced Zabeel mare who’s form in every aspect suggests she will be winning this race. She has drawn a good barrier and has shown she can win coming from the back or leading. There is no jockey riding better than Damien Oliver around Australia and he is in the saddle. She is currently a $4.20 chance and on her past performances in Australia especially that in the Lord Mayor’s Cup it looks to be value.
Don’t Back Me: Two Sugars has had five starts at Caulfield without a win and those were against easier fields than this. She will jump from barrier 11 which is a concern as she usually settles mid field meaning she is likely to be posted wide throughout.
Big Danger: Miss Zenella put in perhaps the run of the race last start when getting back in the field and hitting the line strongly. she will improve with the step up in distance here and there looks to be good speed in the race allowing her to settle back in the field and swoop out wide. She is a $13 chance in betting which i think is great each way value.
Roughie: Oriental Ruby has placed five out of seven times at the distance and three out of six times at the track. She is yet to win this preparation but has been good at every one of her starts. She will need luck from the barrier but if she can get a good run she is a big winning chance at $15.

$500 Zonza Free Bet

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Race Eight: Heading Out Hair & Beauty Stks 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Complicate couldn’t have been more impressive first up at Mornington last start in which he won well on a heavy track against a good field with the top weight. He will be better suited in this race and drops 4.5kg from that run. He has drawn wide which is a bit of a concern but he looks to have come back a very good horse and will be progressing onto bigger and better races after he wins this. $3.70 in betting and i expect him to start shorter come race time.
Don’t Back Me: Le Bonsir has been jumping out of his skin lately including a third in a Group 1 last time out although in saying that i can’t help he is simply a Moonee Valley horse. So from a wide barrier at Caulfield i will be risking him in what is a very good field.
Big Danger: Academus who is the stable mate to our on top selection looks to be the biggest danger with an imposing first up record and a very good record over the distance. He has drawn wide and has a weight disadvantage but he is a very good horse and will be hard to beat.
Roughie: Adamantium bolted last start and hit a wall late but i am happy to forget that run and back at Caulfield he will be much better. He is likely to lead again but he should be able to get a decent tempo and will be hard to run down.

$500 Complicate Free Bet

Best Bet:  Complicate

Next Best:  Zonza

Best Roughie:  Angola