Gai Waterhouse has won a further five Tea Rose Stakes since Danglissa claimed the 1999 edition and with two leading chances in this year’s renewal to be run at Randwick this Saturday, that number looks set to increase again. Waterhouse will be represented by Flamboyant Lass ($5.50) and Kimberley Star ($4.60f), the pair coming off equally impressive performance as their most recent starts. They’ll have to work hard for their victory though with the likes of Perignon ($5.50) Sempre Liberia ($6.00) and Ottoman ($5.00), also well in contention. It’s been a tough race for punters though in recent years with First Seal ($19.00) and Longport ($81.00) causing major upsets when defeating short-priced favourites Winx ($1.80) and Dear Demi ($2.50) respectively.
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1. OTTOMAN – J McDonald (7)
Perfectly placed during the run and cuddled over the rise to present strongly approaching the 300m when resuming in the G2 Furious Stakes but found Speak Fondly too strong the final furlong, running (third 3.6 lengths). Only fitter for that run and Speak Fondly is in sensation form.
2. LAKE GENEVA – T Berry (12)
Plenty was expected from this filly after a fantastic two year season but her two most recent runs, in the G2 Silver Shadow and G2 Furious Stakes, where she’s finished third and fifth respectively, haven’t lived up to those expectations. She settled midfield turning in the Furious Stakes a fortnight ago and had no real impact in the run home after being pulled out to make her run. Would need to lift on latest efforts.
3. LOOK TO THE STARS – W Costin (9)
Jumped last and stayed last – beaten 16.2 lengths, when resuming from what was an excellent Brisbane campaign, highlighted by her win in the G2 Sire’s Produce (1400m), in last fortnight’s G2 Furious Stakes won by Speak Fondly. The step up to 1400m and a drier surface will help but enough to turn around such a significant margin? Hard to think so.
4. KIMBERLEY STAR – B Shinn (10)
Despite being in work since the start of June, this Star Witness filly continues to improve and post impressive results. Her most recent outing saw take on the boys, and give them weight, when running third (0.6 lengths) to Metallic Crown in the G3 Ming Dynasty (1400m). Fantastic effort last time out and back to her own sex, down in weight, sure to run well again.
5. FIREWORKS – K McEvoy (1)
Hasn’t shown anything in either of her two runs back from a spell that would indicate she’s a genuine chance of winning here. The Snitzel filly ran fifth first up in the G2 Silver Shadow Stakes and fifth again at her only start since, when battling in the straight to finish 6.3 lengths behind Speak Fondly in the G2 Furious Stakes. Would have to produce a significant improvement to be winning here.
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6. PERIGNON – J Bowman (3)
Got a nice run from the inside draw when resuming with a second placing (2.8 lengths) behind Speak Fondly in the G2 Furious Stakes a fortnight ago. She has drawn well again and maps as though she’ll get a very similar run in transit. With natural improvement from the first up effort and form reference to Sydney leading’s filly on her side, another good showing here is definitely on the cards.
7. FLAMBOYANT LASS – T Clark (11)
Had two barrier trials under her belt as she returned from a six month spell at Warwick Farm late last month where she demolished the BM 70 (1000m) field to win by 3.3 lengths. Had more up her sleeve across the line last time out and although she takes on a much stronger field here, and jumps from an awkward gate (11), the Gai Waterhouse filly has always shown good ability and boasts a third to Fontiton in the Blue Diamond Prelude earlier this year. Has to be treated with a lot of respect.
8. HONESTA – T Angland (13)
Made it two wins on the trot when finishing well from the second half of the field to win a Doomben 3yo Open (1640m) race last month. The John Thompson trained filly has been freshened up since but given the drop in trip, step up in class and the horrible draw, would think she faces a tough task.
9. SEMPRE LIBERA – J Parr (2)
Improved with each run last campaign did this daughter of Medaglia D’Oro, culminating in a fifth placing to Blueberry Hill in the G2 Champagne Classic (1200m) at Doomben. Given three trials in the past month as she prepares for her return and with a touch of luck from the inside gate, and the anticipation that she’s continued to develop over the winter break, might be capable of running a cheeky race here first up.
10. IN HER TIME – M Bell (4)
Her only start to date resulting in a long neck win at Canterbury in Maiden Class. She secure a nice run throughout, settling just off the pace and whilst it was a professional win, would think there’s more suitable races for her at the moment than this.
11. OCEAN TEMPEST – G Schofield (6)
Won a Gosford Maiden in heavy condition on debut before narrowly being denied another victory at her following start, when pipped on the past by Denpurr at mid-week Warwick Farm meeting recently. Hard to see her winning a quality event like this off either of those two performances.
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12. PEARLS – S Clipperton (8)
Sent out favourite on debut at Gosford and did the right thing by punters, winning the 1200m maiden in good style, but wasn’t able to deliver the same result at her next start when also favourite, running second to the Special Two at Canterbury in a BM 70 (1200m). Closed well late last time out and the 1400m and bigger Randwick track will suit, the class is the concern though.
13. SOFIA ROSA – B Avdulla (5)
New Zealand filly who ran third the Listed Champagne Stakes (1200m) on debut in May, before being given a freshen-up and retuning with a long-neck win over Queenofhaprz. Produced a big finish to clinch last start son the 1400m, solid pace and Randwick course, shouldn’t be of concern and she creates some interest at the bottom of the field.
14. METEORA MISS – (14)
Has settled a long way back in each of her two starts to date, the first in April’s Kindergarten Stakes (1100m) when fifth (3 lengths) behind Furnaces, and more recently, finishing fifth again (1.1 lengths) in Maiden at Canterbury two and a half weeks ago. Specked in betting last time out (10’s into 8’s) and closed well, but form out of that race wouldn’t suggest she could make the improvement required to be winning here.
RACE OVERVIEW –
The manner of her last start victory makes for little concern about the wide barrier here and think Flamboyant Lass can win again here. She couldn’t easily won by more than the 3.3 length margin she did at Warwick Farm and will only be fitter for it. Stable-mate Kimberley Star is a bomb-proof filly. Can settle forward or back, and always gives 100%. Thought Perignon was a legitimate chance after drawing well whilst Ottoman and Gai’s third runner, Sempre Liberia at some value, were best of the race.
1. FLAMBOYANT LASS
2. KIMBERLEY STAR
4. SEMPRE LIBERA