The Randwick Autumn Carnival comes to a close this Saturday for Sydney Cup Day. The main race is the $500,000 Schweppes Sydney Cup (3200m), with quality import Permit the likely top pick thanks to his purple patch of form. His main threats are Niwot and Drunken Sailor, who both ran good races in the BMW behind Manighar.

But the race we all want to watch is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m), because it shapes up as a mini Cox Plate preview with Manighar, Americain, More Joyous and Jimmy Choux all stepping out in search for the $300,000 first prize cheque. It will be a beauty!

Champion colt Pierro is expected to keep on his winning ways in the Champagne Stakes (1600m). Due to how great this bloke is, the field size is rather small, but a horse like Dear Demi could run a cheeky race.

Star filly Atlantic Jewel will step out of her comfort zone for the first time when she steps out in the All Aged Stakes (1400m). She is at $1.22 with TAB Sportsbet. The $2.21 on offer for King Mufhasa for a place looks good considering he’ll either get the softest lead in the world, or sit behind Rain Affair. That horse might be scratched due to the firm track.

Race One: Sharp James H B Carr Stakes 1400m

Back Me: Kicking off the day with a special in Hallowell Belle. Should have won the T J Smith but had no luck over the final 300m. She then went to the Gosford Guineas. She missed the start, sat last and had no hope but still ran an excellent third. Nash jumps on now, she should lead and should win.
Don’t Back Me: I honestly can’t say anything here because apart from the top tip, there is about four or five even chances.
Big Danger: Got it between Ever The Same, Detours, Angel Of Mercy and Bound To Blush.
Roughie: Xatel Ekwa will be at juicy odds and she is a nice filly on the rise. One to follow for the future, but it’ll be interesting to see what she does here.

Race Two: Johnnie Walker Frank Packer Plate 2000m

Back Me: Gai and Nash to keep the ball rolling with Fat Al. He was super in winning the Carbine Club over the mile last start and ran it out well, so the added 400m won’t be an issue.
Don’t Back Me: Ambidexter has been freshened since a close fourth in the Rosehill Guineas. However, I question his staying ability. I feel he is a miler.
Big Danger: Rekindled Alliance hasn’t won for a while, but he has raced against the elite company and will welcome a drop in grade. Williams jumps on board now. Big tick there.
Roughie: A massive weight drop should spark some improvement from Just The Tonic. $16 is big overs.

Race Three: Moet & Chandon Champagne Stakes 1600m

Back Me: Pierro. That is all.
Don’t Back Me: Just back the top tip and get in the queue. They won’t beat him here.
Big Danger: Dear Demi toughed it out for a gallant win in the Fernhill last Saturday. She has been set for this race, so the $21 on offer could be entertaining on and each-way basis.
Roughie: Rowie caught the eye behind Dear Demi last week. He sat back and powered home for a close up sixth. Exotic player for sure.

Race Four: Ascend Sales Emancipation Stakes 1600m

Back Me: Sticking with Skyerush after her gallant effort with 59.5kg last Saturday behind Lightinthenite. She should be cherry ripe for this and her form on top of the ground is just as good as it is on soft ground.
Don’t Back Me: I keep knocking Fibrillation, but she keeps winning. However, this race does appear to have more depth.
Big Danger: Quickly stepping up to 1600m won’t be easy for Divorces, but gee she motored home when resuming behind Celts. Classy mare when right and she gets conditions to suit.
Roughie: Triple Six didn’t have the race run to suit when a well supported favourite on the Kensington track last time out. She has the paint now and the whiz kid from NZ is on top.

Race Five: Ticketek All Aged Stakes 1400m

Back Me: Atlantic Jewel should win, but $1.22 is far too short.
Don’t Back Me: Wouldn’t touch Rain Affair because of the firm track, the rise in grade and the fact he might be looking for the spelling paddock.
Big Danger: I feel that King Mufhasa can give the gun filly a decent race. He is tough, 1400m is his pet distance, Nash sticks and is the proven WFA star. How he is at $8.50 I do not know.
Roughie: Albert The Fat finished off superbly in the Doncaster. Dry conditions and a small field might see him run a cheeky race at $35.

Race Six: Schweppes Sydney Cup 3200m

Back Me: I think the $13 for Efficient is juicy. Melbourne Cup winner, his last start in the Australian Cup was strong and he does look well weighted if is at his best, which according to Lloyd Williams, he is.
Don’t Back Me: Permit is racing in great heart of late, but I just question his last start win. I think it was a case of the best ride, not the best horse, that won the race. $3.60 is far too short.
Big Danger: Drunken Sailor is a strong, one-pace import who will love the 3200m. Outstanding effort in the BMW and he should get the dream run for Olly. Also give Niwot a big chance too. This is his grand final.
Roughie: Older Than Time has been ticking along beautifully this Autumn and she can certainly win here. Anudjawwun has a terrible strike rate but his last start effort behind Permit was good enough for him to warrant consideration.

Race Seven: Tabcorp Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2000m

Back Me: With Mosse never to ride the horse again, Americain looks the winner and the $4 is a gift. Should have won both starts this campaign, but he was ridden poorly in each run. He should get redemption here. The only concern is the dry track.
Don’t Back Me: From all reports, More Joyous has felt the run from last Saturday and probably hasn’t recovered as well as what she can. If ever she was going run 2000m, this is it. But, this is such a cracking field.
Big Danger: $10 for the best horse in New Zealand? Jimmy Choux doesn’t deserve to be that price. He has fresh legs, while the others are near the end of their campaigns. If there was to be a boilover, this bloke is the one to do it.
Roughie: Call me crazy, but Speediness looks the sneaky first four chance. Should have won the Doncaster Prelude but he caught deep and did too much work. He could even lead from the barrier or sit behind More Joyous. On his day, he does have a sharp turn of foot and the firm surface helps his cause.

Race Eight: Carolyn Griffin Hall Mark Stakes 1200m

Back Me: Two horse race for me- Pinwheel and Nobby Snip. Going with the latter, only because he is rock hard fit and is on his home track.
Don’t Back Me: Neeson is the class horse, but from 15, he will just have to do far too much work to get across. No thanks.
Big Danger: Pinwheel should have won when resuming, but ran into dead ends all the way up the Rosehill straight. He should get the run of the race here and with luck, he can win.
Roughie: Elite Falls never got in the hunt last Saturday behind Temple Of Boom. A drop in grade, on the limit, McDonald takes over and she has drawn beautifully. Definite chance in a hot race.